Flood Hazard Mapping: Uncertainty and its Value in the Decision-making Process

Flood Hazard Mapping: Uncertainty and its Value in the Decision-making Process

Author: Micah Mukungu Mukolwe

Publisher: CRC Press

Published: 2017-03-16

Total Pages: 149

ISBN-13: 1351652451

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Computers are increasingly used in the simulation of natural phenomena such as floods. However, these simulations are based on numerical approximations of equations formalizing our conceptual understanding of flood flows. Thus, model results are intrinsically subject to uncertainty and the use of probabilistic approaches seems more appropriate. Uncertain, probabilistic floodplain maps are widely used in the scientific domain, but still not sufficiently exploited to support the development of flood mitigation strategies. In this thesis the major sources of uncertainty in flood inundation models are analyzed, resulting in the generation of probabilistic floodplain maps. The utility of probabilistic model output is assessed using value of information and the prospect theory. The use of these maps to support decision making in terms of floodplain development under flood hazard threat is demonstrated.


Rock Fractures and Fluid Flow

Rock Fractures and Fluid Flow

Author: National Research Council

Publisher: National Academies Press

Published: 1996-09-27

Total Pages: 568

ISBN-13: 0309103711

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Scientific understanding of fluid flow in rock fracturesâ€"a process underlying contemporary earth science problems from the search for petroleum to the controversy over nuclear waste storageâ€"has grown significantly in the past 20 years. This volume presents a comprehensive report on the state of the field, with an interdisciplinary viewpoint, case studies of fracture sites, illustrations, conclusions, and research recommendations. The book addresses these questions: How can fractures that are significant hydraulic conductors be identified, located, and characterized? How do flow and transport occur in fracture systems? How can changes in fracture systems be predicted and controlled? Among other topics, the committee provides a geomechanical understanding of fracture formation, reviews methods for detecting subsurface fractures, and looks at the use of hydraulic and tracer tests to investigate fluid flow. The volume examines the state of conceptual and mathematical modeling, and it provides a useful framework for understanding the complexity of fracture changes that occur during fluid pumping and other engineering practices. With a practical and multidisciplinary outlook, this volume will be welcomed by geologists, petroleum geologists, geoengineers, geophysicists, hydrologists, researchers, educators and students in these fields, and public officials involved in geological projects.


Hydrological Modelling and the Water Cycle

Hydrological Modelling and the Water Cycle

Author: Soroosh Sorooshian

Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media

Published: 2008-07-18

Total Pages: 294

ISBN-13: 3540778438

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This volume is a collection of a selected number of articles based on presentations at the 2005 L’Aquila (Italy) Summer School on the topic of “Hydrologic Modeling and Water Cycle: Coupling of the Atmosphere and Hydrological Models”. The p- mary focus of this volume is on hydrologic modeling and their data requirements, especially precipitation. As the eld of hydrologic modeling is experiencing rapid development and transition to application of distributed models, many challenges including overcoming the requirements of compatible observations of inputs and outputs must be addressed. A number of papers address the recent advances in the State-of-the-art distributed precipitation estimation from satellites. A number of articles address the issues related to the data merging and use of geo-statistical techniques for addressing data limitations at spatial resolutions to capture the h- erogeneity of physical processes. The participants at the School came from diverse backgrounds and the level of - terest and active involvement in the discussions clearly demonstrated the importance the scienti c community places on challenges related to the coupling of atmospheric and hydrologic models. Along with my colleagues Dr. Erika Coppola and Dr. Kuolin Hsu, co-directors of the School, we greatly appreciate the invited lectures and all the participants. The members of the local organizing committee, Drs Barbara Tomassetti; Marco Verdecchia and Guido Visconti were instrumental in the success of the school and their contributions, both scienti cally and organizationally are much appreciated.


Review of the Edwards Aquifer Habitat Conservation Plan

Review of the Edwards Aquifer Habitat Conservation Plan

Author: National Research Council

Publisher: National Academies Press

Published: 2015-06-10

Total Pages: 178

ISBN-13: 0309368901

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The Edwards Aquifer in south-central Texas is the primary source of water for one of the fastest growing cities in the United States, San Antonio, and it also supplies irrigation water to thousands of farmers and livestock operators. It is also is the source water for several springs and rivers, including the two largest freshwater springs in Texas that form the San Marcos and Comal Rivers. The unique habitat afforded by these spring-fed rivers has led to the development of species that are found in no other locations on Earth. Due to the potential for variations in spring flow caused by both human and natural causes, these species are continuously at risk and have been recognized as endangered under the federal Endangered Species Act (ESA). In an effort to manage the river systems and the aquifer that controls them, the Edwards Aquifer Authority and stakeholders have developed a Habitat Conservation Plan (HCP). The HCP seeks to effectively manage the river-aquifer system to ensure the viability of the ESA-listed species in the face of drought, population growth, and other threats to the aquifer. The National Research Council was asked to assist in this process by reviewing the activities around implementing the HCP. Review of the Edwards Aquifer Habitat Conservation Plan: Report 1 is the first stage of a three-stage study. This report reviews the scientific efforts that are being conducted to help build a better understanding of the river-aquifer system and its relationship to the ESA-listed species. These efforts, which include monitoring and modeling as well as research on key uncertainties in the system, are designed to build a better understanding of how best to manage and protect the system and the endangered species. Thus, the current report is focused specifically on a review of the hydrologic modeling, the ecological modeling, the water quality and biological monitoring, and the Applied Research Program. The fundamental question that Review of the Edwards Aquifer Habitat Conservation Plan: Report 1 addresses is whether the scientific initiatives appropriately address uncertainties and fill knowledge gaps in the river-aquifer system and the species of concern. It is hoped that the successful completion of these scientific initiatives will ultimately lead the Edwards Aquifer Authority to an improved understanding of how to manage the system and protect these species.


Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty

Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty

Author: Vincent A. W. J. Marchau

Publisher: Springer

Published: 2019-04-04

Total Pages: 408

ISBN-13: 3030052524

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This open access book focuses on both the theory and practice associated with the tools and approaches for decisionmaking in the face of deep uncertainty. It explores approaches and tools supporting the design of strategic plans under deep uncertainty, and their testing in the real world, including barriers and enablers for their use in practice. The book broadens traditional approaches and tools to include the analysis of actors and networks related to the problem at hand. It also shows how lessons learned in the application process can be used to improve the approaches and tools used in the design process. The book offers guidance in identifying and applying appropriate approaches and tools to design plans, as well as advice on implementing these plans in the real world. For decisionmakers and practitioners, the book includes realistic examples and practical guidelines that should help them understand what decisionmaking under deep uncertainty is and how it may be of assistance to them. Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty: From Theory to Practice is divided into four parts. Part I presents five approaches for designing strategic plans under deep uncertainty: Robust Decision Making, Dynamic Adaptive Planning, Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways, Info-Gap Decision Theory, and Engineering Options Analysis. Each approach is worked out in terms of its theoretical foundations, methodological steps to follow when using the approach, latest methodological insights, and challenges for improvement. In Part II, applications of each of these approaches are presented. Based on recent case studies, the practical implications of applying each approach are discussed in depth. Part III focuses on using the approaches and tools in real-world contexts, based on insights from real-world cases. Part IV contains conclusions and a synthesis of the lessons that can be drawn for designing, applying, and implementing strategic plans under deep uncertainty, as well as recommendations for future work. The publication of this book has been funded by the Radboud University, the RAND Corporation, Delft University of Technology, and Deltares.


Review of the New York City Watershed Protection Program

Review of the New York City Watershed Protection Program

Author: National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine

Publisher: National Academies Press

Published: 2020-12-04

Total Pages: 423

ISBN-13: 0309679702

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New York City's municipal water supply system provides about 1 billion gallons of drinking water a day to over 8.5 million people in New York City and about 1 million people living in nearby Westchester, Putnam, Ulster, and Orange counties. The combined water supply system includes 19 reservoirs and three controlled lakes with a total storage capacity of approximately 580 billion gallons. The city's Watershed Protection Program is intended to maintain and enhance the high quality of these surface water sources. Review of the New York City Watershed Protection Program assesses the efficacy and future of New York City's watershed management activities. The report identifies program areas that may require future change or action, including continued efforts to address turbidity and responding to changes in reservoir water quality as a result of climate change.


Runoff Prediction in Ungauged Basins

Runoff Prediction in Ungauged Basins

Author: Günter Blöschl

Publisher: Cambridge University Press

Published: 2013-04-18

Total Pages: 491

ISBN-13: 1107067553

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Predicting water runoff in ungauged water catchment areas is vital to practical applications such as the design of drainage infrastructure and flooding defences, runoff forecasting, and for catchment management tasks such as water allocation and climate impact analysis. This full colour book offers an impressive synthesis of decades of international research, forming a holistic approach to catchment hydrology and providing a one-stop resource for hydrologists in both developed and developing countries. Topics include data for runoff regionalisation, the prediction of runoff hydrographs, flow duration curves, flow paths and residence times, annual and seasonal runoff, and floods. Illustrated with many case studies and including a final chapter on recommendations for researchers and practitioners, this book is written by expert authors involved in the prestigious IAHS PUB initiative. It is a key resource for academic researchers and professionals in the fields of hydrology, hydrogeology, ecology, geography, soil science, and environmental and civil engineering.


Hydrology: Advances in Theory and Practice

Hydrology: Advances in Theory and Practice

Author: Nevil W. Quinn

Publisher: IWA Publishing

Published: 2020-04-15

Total Pages: 154

ISBN-13: 1789061423

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Hydrology: Advances in Theory and Practice, brings together contributions to both the theory and practice of hydrology, including chapters on (amongst other topics) flood estimation methods and hydrological modelling. The book also looks forward with a global hydrology research agenda fit for the 2030s, and explores how to make advances in hydrological modelling – based on almost 50 years of modelling experience. In Focus – a book series that showcases the latest accomplishments in water research. Each book focuses on a specialist area with papers from top experts in the field. It aims to be a vehicle for in-depth understanding and inspire further conversations in the sector.