Reducing Air Force Fighter Pilot Shortages

Reducing Air Force Fighter Pilot Shortages

Author: Albert A. Robbert

Publisher:

Published: 2015

Total Pages: 0

ISBN-13: 9780833091734

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Examines potential paths for overcoming the persistent and critical shortage of fighter pilots that the Air Force has faced over the past several decades.


A Total Force Solution for an Active Duty Fighter Pilot Shortage

A Total Force Solution for an Active Duty Fighter Pilot Shortage

Author: David W. Walker

Publisher:

Published: 2004

Total Pages: 44

ISBN-13:

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"The Active Duty (AD) Air Force has a shortage of fighter pilots and cannot recover until fiscal year 2013. Producing more fighter pilots is problematic given post Cold War fighter force structure. Only 12.6 fighter wing equivalents (FWE) are currently in the AD force, while 7.6 FWE are in the Air Reserve Component (ARC). This research analyzed the proposition of assigning 80 fighter pilots per year to ARC fighter units for absorption. The researcher gathered flying hour metrics including sorties, hours, and utilization rates (UTE) from AD, Air National Guard (ANG), and Air Force Reserve (AFR). The researcher next calculated annual sortie and hour requirements for AD fighter pilots. After comparing these two sets of data, the researcher concluded 80 fighter pilots could be absorbed per year by the ARC. The ARC would have to increase UTE rate by slightly more than three sorties per month across the entire operational fighter fleet. This equated to a 25 percent increase in flying hours. Given the extreme cost to the ARC in terms of airframe lifespan, the researcher recommended absorbing some number fewer than 80 in the ARC to balance the benefit of reducing the fighter pilot shortage with the costs."--Abstract.


Evaluating the Impact of a Total Force Service Commitment Policy on Air Force Pilot Manning

Evaluating the Impact of a Total Force Service Commitment Policy on Air Force Pilot Manning

Author: David Schulker

Publisher:

Published: 2018-11-08

Total Pages: 0

ISBN-13: 9781977400291

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There is a high level of concern among senior Air Force leaders about projected pilot shortages, which are so severe they have been labeled an "aircrew crisis." The Air Force asked RAND Project AIR FORCE to evaluate whether a Total Force service commitment (TFSC) policy could reduce or eliminate these shortages. Such a policy would replace the current active duty service commitment and reserve service commitment of 10 years with a TFSC longer than 10 years. The new TFSC policy would also permit the level of cross-flow between the Regular Air Force and reserve components that best addresses Total Force shortages. The authors used a modified version of RAND's Total Force Blue Line model to project future pilot numbers under different assumptions about the TFSC policy. The model results show that a TFSC policy could reduce, but not eliminate, shortages if production plans are unalterable; if certain production adjustments are possible, the benefits of longer service commitments become less important. Moreover, the results paint a clear picture that increasing production (and incorporating new pilots into operational units and affording them sufficient flying time to gain experience) is a required way forward in addressing this aircrew crisis


The Air Force Pilot Shortage

The Air Force Pilot Shortage

Author: William W. Taylor

Publisher: RAND Corporation

Published: 2000

Total Pages: 0

ISBN-13: 9780833028570

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The Air Force is facing a pilot shortage that is unprecedented in history. Unprecedented losses are occurring for pilots reaching the end of their initial active duty service commitment as well as for pilots who complete bonus-related obligations. Operational units are the only assignment options for newly trained pilots while they mature and develop their mission knowledge. Thus, these units require enough experienced pilots to supervise the development of the new pilots. As the proportion of experienced pilots in a unit drops, each one must fly more to provide essential supervision to an increasing number of new pilots. When the unit1s flying capacity remains fixed, new pilots must each fly less, extending the time needed to become experienced themselves. This report quantifies these experience problems and examines options that can alleviate them. The options include Total Force alternatives, such as associate programs in active units and aging active pilots in Guard and Reserve units.


Behind the Power Curve

Behind the Power Curve

Author: Aaron J. Mathena

Publisher:

Published: 2016

Total Pages: 28

ISBN-13:

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"The Active Component (AC) of the Air Force is aggressively examining solutions to its fighter pilot shortage, a deficit currently estimated at approximately 500 pilots and growing. The consequences are significant shortfalls in test positions, initial training instructor pilots, and staff positions. While many solutions have been proposed, further information needs to be garnered surrounding how these alternatives may impact the Air National Guard (ANG). This research seeks to examine the first and second order effects of insufficient numbers of AC pilots on ANG fighter squadron aircrew management dynamics. In the fiscal and political climate of sustaining today’s Air Force, substantial funding increases or fundamental changes to the ANG component are unlikely. It is then appropriate to ask, “What happens to ANG fighter squadrons’ readiness when an increased number of AC fighter pilots may be joining the ANG or a decreased number of fighter pilots may be available to affiliate?” The scenario-planning framework is used to examine the required elements that make up the fighter force enterprise, followed by comparative examples that illustrate logical outcomes. Nearly all the current intellectual content on the subject is oriented toward problem identification tied to studies of alternatives and effects on regular Air Force (RegAF) personnel. The aim of this research is to analyze the potential benefits or detriments of the current RegAF pilot shortage to ANG manning."--Abstract.


Fighter Drawdown Dynamics

Fighter Drawdown Dynamics

Author: William W. Taylor

Publisher: Rand Corporation

Published: 2009

Total Pages: 183

ISBN-13: 0833046950

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The number of fighter aircraft in the Air Force inventory is decreasing, but the demand for experienced fighter pilots is increasing. The authors use a dynamic mathematical model to show that, to keep from damaging fighter unit readiness, fighter pilot production in the active Air Force must be reduced and new approaches to developing and managing personnel with fighter pilot-like skills must be adopted.


Flattening the Curve

Flattening the Curve

Author: Troy Wing

Publisher:

Published: 2021

Total Pages: 29

ISBN-13:

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"This study analyzes how the United States economy's cyclic nature relates to airline hiring trends and, therefore, pilot shortages in the United States Air Force. By understanding the economy's significance concerning the pilot retention cycle, the Air Force can more accurately forecast when increased retention efforts are necessary and can proactively implement incentive tools. This paper first discusses the Air Force pilot shortage history and establishes a relationship between the United States economy, airline pilot hiring, and Air Force pilot retention. It then discusses the Air Force's historical and current retention mechanisms and concludes with recommendations the Air Force should take to reduce the pilot deficit."--Abstract.


Military Personnel

Military Personnel

Author: Mark E. Gebicke

Publisher: DIANE Publishing

Published: 2000-04

Total Pages: 74

ISBN-13: 9780788187254

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DoD reported shortages of 2,000 pilots at the end of FY1998 and projected that shortages would continue for several years. Retaining qualified pilots is important to ensure that operational requirements can be met and to recoup the substantial investments the services make in training their pilots. This report reviews and identifies reasons for the military pilot shortages and offers solutions. It determined: the services' reported and projected estimates of their pilot shortages; the basis for the services' pilot requirements; key factors that account for the reported pilot shortages; and concerns that are causing pilots to consider leaving the military. Tables.


Increasing Fighter Pilot Retention with Improved Basing Decisions

Increasing Fighter Pilot Retention with Improved Basing Decisions

Author: Russell H. Williams

Publisher:

Published: 2021

Total Pages: 103

ISBN-13:

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The Air Force currently faces a substantial pilot shortage. Two decades of elevated operational tempos, tight budgets, and robust airline hiring have motivated pilots to leave active duty service in record numbers, eroding the Service's stock of experienced aviators. The global recession caused by the coronavirus pandemic may have temporarily subdued commercial airlines' demand for military trained pilots, but these conditions won't last forever, and soon the Air Force will once again need to retain experienced aircrew when the airlines are hiring. This dissertation leverages a value-added model to identify changes to Air Force basing policy that could improve fighter pilot retention outcomes. Using a value-added model to analyze twenty years of fighter pilot retention data highlights significant variation in retention outcomes at installations across the USAF's basing posture. Comparing retention outcomes to the communities surrounding military installations can demonstrate pilots' revealed installation preferences. Investigating recent retention trends at prospective F-35 bases yields insights into the potential retention consequences of future basing decisions. This dissertation recommends that the Air Force continue to gather as much data as possible about pilots' personal and professional preferences, so that individuals can be matched with tailored, retention improving assignments. Next, the Air Force should use these preferences to more fully understand pilots' revealed assignment and installation preferences. Lastly, these preferences should be incorporated into the Air Force's Strategic Basing Process to move the Service towards a basing posture that passively supports pilot retention with every basing decision.


Three Recommendations for Improving Air Force Pilot Retention

Three Recommendations for Improving Air Force Pilot Retention

Author: Tobias Switzer

Publisher:

Published: 2020

Total Pages: 32

ISBN-13:

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Former Air Force Chief of Staff General David Goldfein publicly called the service's pilot shortage a crisis in 2016 when the Air Force had a deficit of 1,500 pilots. Today, the gap is 2,100 pilots. The global pandemic and subsequent impacts on the airline industry will result in more pilots remaining in the service, for now. However, in the next few years, over 20,000 airline pilots will reach the mandatory age limit of 65 and will have to be replaced. The Air Force has a short window of opportunity to make longer military service more attractive to its pilots. Retention is critical because of the massive investment of resources to train a combat-ready pilot and because the Air Force needs its experienced pilots to take on advanced leadership and management roles. This report proposes three ways the Air Force and Congress can increase pilots' career satisfaction and gain longer service commitments without additional outlays. These recommendations increase a pilot's agency inside the Air Force while giving the service more stability and predictability in its pilot manning.