From the Executive Summary: This study has two purposes. First, it provides up-to-date estimates and projections to 1983 of potential GNP, the level of gross national product which could be produced if labour and capital resources were utilized at high employment rates, based on a reassessment of the methods of estimating the GNP. Second, the study provides an assessment of the economy's recent growth performance and of its medium-term prospects for growth. The implications of this assessment for current and medium-term macroeconomic policy are discussed.
The Arctic is a harsh geography that has historically been misconceived as a large ice mass, ignoring the complex strategic salience of the region. Its cold waters and frozen lands have attracted the attention of people for many years and have been the centre of discoveries and adventures. Today, however, the strategic importance of the Arctic has gone beyond discoveries and adventures. Factors, such as environmental erosion, climate change, and national or regional security complicate geopolitical dynamics in the region. This book begins by delving into the issues that have led Arctic countries to reorient their foreign policies. The geopolitical structure of the Arctic, the expansion of NATO, the emergence of new energy reserves, and the impact of climate change on the Arctic are some of the factors directly affecting the region. Then, within the framework of these influences, the policies of the eight Arctic countries are re-assessed from the perspective of international relations. This volume not only emphasises the geopolitical and strategic importance of the Arctic region, but also discusses conflicts of interest, international cooperation efforts, and possible future scenarios. The Arctic is not just a geography, but also an important part of global politics and security. This book is a guide to understanding the complex and dynamic nature of the Arctic region. CONTENTS PREFACE SECTION I: IDENTIFYING SIGNIFICANT RISKS IN THE ARCTIC CHAPTER 1. INTRODUCTION TO ARCTIC GEOPOLITICS. - Ferdi Güçyetmez CHAPTER 2. WHAT THE ARCTIC MEANS TO NATO.. - Alina Bykova CHAPTER 3. ENERGY IN THE ARCTIC: COMPLEXITY AND THINKING IN A SOCIAL DYNAMICAL SYSTEM... - Anna Soer CHAPTER 4. IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON THE ARCTIC.. - Rabia Kalfaoğlu SECTION II: COUNTRY-LEVEL ANALYSES CHAPTER 1. UNITED STATES ARCTIC POLICY FROM WHITE HILLS TO BLUE WATERS. - Aslıhan Genç CHAPTER 2. THE CANADIAN PERSPECTIVE ON INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS INSIDE THE CIRCUMPOLAR NORTH.. - Jackson Walling CHAPTER 3. THE POLICIES OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION TOWARDS THE ARCTIC REGION - Ebru Caymaz CHAPTER 4. POLICIES OF FINLAND TOWARDS THE ARCTIC REGION.. - Yeliz Albayrak CHAPTER 5. THINKING THE ARCTIC IN SWEDISH GEOPOLITICS: POLICIES AND PRACTICES - Emre Sipahioğlu CHAPTER 6. NORWAY’S ARCTIC POLICIES. - Allison G. Kondrat CHAPTER 7. ICELAND’S ARCTIC POLICIES. - Jared R. Dmello and Bianca Acosta CHAPTER 8. POLICIES OF DENMARK TOWARDS THE ARCTIC REGION.. - Veysel Babahanoğlu and Elif Miray Yazıcı CONCLUSION
This study provides important empirical background to the continuing debate on Canadian industrial policy and trade. The analysis is based on primary data derived from a unique survey of individual firms, both Canadian and foreign-owned, conducted early in the 1981-1982 recession. The main purpose of the study is to assess whether recent changes in tariffs, exchange rates, wage rates, and other factors in Canada and the world economy suggest the need for any significant modification in the earlier analyses and conclusions. The study presents prior evidence on costs, specialization, and trade; assesses current costs and productivity, and presents new information on how increased exports and specialization would affect cost performance and international competitiveness; examines non-production costs and other non-cost influences on specialization and export performance; and suggests strategies for the private sector to consider in order to survive in the changing trade environment of the 1980s.
Estimates of potential output are an important ingredient of structured forecasting and policy analysis. Using information on consensus forecasts, this paper extends the multivariate filter developed by Benes and others (2010). Although the estimates in real time are more robust relative to those of naïve statistical filters, there is still significant uncertainty surrounding the estimates. The paper presents estimates for 16 countries and provides an example of how the filtered estimates at the end of the sample period can be improved with additional information.
The world economy is experiencing a very strong but uneven recovery, with many emerging market and developing economies facing obstacles to vaccination. The global outlook remains uncertain, with major risks around the path of the pandemic and the possibility of financial stress amid large debt loads. Policy makers face a difficult balancing act as they seek to nurture the recovery while safeguarding price stability and fiscal sustainability. A comprehensive set of policies will be required to promote a strong recovery that mitigates inequality and enhances environmental sustainability, ultimately putting economies on a path of green, resilient, and inclusive development. Prominent among the necessary policies are efforts to lower trade costs so that trade can once again become a robust engine of growth. This year marks the 30th anniversary of the Global Economic Prospects. The Global Economic Prospects is a World Bank Group Flagship Report that examines global economic developments and prospects, with a special focus on emerging market and developing economies, on a semiannual basis (in January and June). Each edition includes analytical pieces on topical policy challenges faced by these economies.
