Bachelor Thesis from the year 2019 in the subject Economics - Macro-economics, general, grade: 1,7, University of Applied Sciences Frankfurt am Main, language: English, abstract: The main question which results through the theme is: “Are German real estates overvalued or can the development on the market be explained by macro-economic factors?” To be able to answer this question it is necessary to firstly define what a bubble is and further analyze general criteria which can lead to it. After that an analyzation of possible indicators which are linked to the two largest housing bubbles: the The Subprime Crisis in in the USA of the former decade and the housing bubble in Japan in the middle of the 90s will be done and a comparison of those crises will be given. Based on those findings the development of the current real estate situation of Germany and an overall evaluation of possible legal and political instruments which are supposed to protect from a pricing bubble will be done. The findings are based on literature review and include an empirical part with expert interviews when it comes to the risk of having a housing bubble specifically in Germany.
Master's Thesis in the subject Economy - Real estate industry, , language: English, abstract: The starting point for this thesis and the associated question were price developments observable on the residential property market as well as increased media reporting. Against this background, the following question was examined with scientific methods within the framework of this thesis: Is a bubble formation recognisable in the German residential real estate market and what regional differences can be identified in answering this question? As a first step, price-influencing factors were examined in more detail and the price development relative to annual rent ratio, income and construction costs was examined. In addition, the effect of the ECB's interest rate policy and the interplay between property prices, monetary policy and asset price inflation were analysed. Hereby it became apparent that the significant price increase for residential property since 2010, and especially accelerated since 2016, can be explained against the backdrop of the extremely low interest rate level and the considerable expansion of money supply. In order to be able to identify price bubbles on the residential property market in a measurable and comprehensible way, the price development was analysed in a second step with the mathematical procedure according to Diba and Grossmann, which uses the Augmented Dickey Fuller Test. The procedure is based on the premise that the price of a good is related to its fundamental value. To examine the price development in the residential property market, the fundamental value used for comparison purposes is derived from the development of the rent price index, the index of average gross monthly earnings and the construction cost index. The house price index was used as a price indicator for residential property. With the help of the Augmented-Dickey-Fuller Test, the development of the various indices was examined and compared with regard to their degree of stationarity. This investigation was carried out for the overall German residential real estate market in the observation period 2010-2021 in order to obtain an up-to-date picture. For the period under consideration from 01.01.2010 to 31.12.2021, a price bubble was not confirmed on the overall German residential property market.
Bachelor Thesis from the year 2014 in the subject Business economics - Investment and Finance, grade: 2, Free University of Bozen-Bolzano , language: English, abstract: Latterly the capital of Germany alludes to a potential real estate bubble. Does the strong price increase of 73 % on average between 2007 and 2013 really rely on speculative market behaviour or is the trend rather determined by fundamental factors? In order to find this out, the following paper examines several determinants of demand for residential objects through a qualitative analysis. Relevant determinants such as supply of credit, demographic aspects, income and economic growth, real long term interest rates and monetary policy, rent prices, substitution goods as well as the factor of expectations of the future house price development were investigated by means of empirical analysis. Anyways, the unclear result argues in favour of a price increase mainly caused by the fundamental factors. Aim of the thesis is to get a better knowledge on the assessment of bubble existence in housing markets. According to mainstream economics, the process itself is considered relatively difficult. However, an advantage of such a work is that I can eventually use the gained information to implement a real project in the future. In addition, this kind of problem approach could then be used for other markets as well: proving a price increase, finding out how it came about, discovering if its factors consist in a bubble risk or not. Aim of the thesis isn't neither to determine if, how and when a possible bubble will burst, nor examining its effects on the overall economy. From the point of view of a relatively risk averse investor, namely, already the fact that a bubble may exist should be enough reason not to go for an investment in such a market. The reason why I look at a single region instead of an entire country is that plenty of past housing bubbles began to arise in single parts of lands and then eventually expanded to the whole country or even to a whole continent like it happened in the case of the US in 2007. House price dynamics are a local phenomenon, and national-level data conceal crucial economic differences among cities (Himmelberg et al., 2005). This thesis refers to residential properties and not to commercial properties such as office buildings, industrial, retail or restaurants. However, I'm going to put prices of existing properties and new properties together since new buildings only account for a little part in this market (Sparber, 2014).
Investing in one of the most promising real estate markets in Europe offers enormous opportunities. And as with every real estate market, in Germany too, the local framework conditions must be understood and their particularities must be adequately taken into account. The authors are renowned senior executives, real estate advisors and academics, who share here their extensive experience and real life insights from countless real estate investments, covering all aspects of a successful investment process in Germany. Includes: markets, the regulatory framework and investment guidelines. Contents: - Essentials for successful real estate investments in Germany - Macro-economic structure and dynamics of the German real estate market - Real estate investment, trends and strategies - Diverse submarkets: residential, offices, retail, hotel and nursing homes - Real estate legal, tax and audit frameworks - German REITS and ESG in real estate investments - Real estate M&A, financing, due diligence and valuations
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