Quantifying and Controlling Catastrophic Risks
Quantifying and Controlling Catastrophic Risks

Author: B. John Garrick

Publisher: Academic Press

Published: 2008-10-27

Total Pages: 374

ISBN-13: 0080923453

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The perception, assessment and management of risk are increasingly important core principles for determining the development of both policy and strategic responses to civil and environmental catastrophes. Whereas these principles were once confined to some areas of activity i.e. financial and insurance, they are now widely used in civil and environmental engineering. Comprehensive and readable, Civil and Environmental Risk: Mitigation and Control, provides readers with the mathematical tools and quantitative methods for determining the probability of a catastrophic event and mitigating and controlling the aftermath. With this book engineers develop the required skills for accurately assessing risk and formulating appropriate response strategies. The two part treatment starts with a clear and rigorous exposition of the quantitative risk assessment process, followed by self-contained chapters concerning applications. One of the first books to address both natural and human generated disasters, topics include events such as pandemic diseases, climate changes, major hurricanes, super earthquakes, mega tsunamis, volcanic eruptions, industrial accidents and terrorist attacks. Case studies appear at the end of the book allowing engineers to see how these principles are applied to scenarios such as a super hurricane or mega tsunamis, a reactor core melt down in a nuclear plant, a terrorist attack on the national electric grid, and an abrupt climate change brought about by a change in the ocean currents in the North Atlantic. Written by the current Chairman of the U.S. Nuclear Waste Technical Review Board, Environmental risk managers will find this reference a valuable and authoritative guide both in accurately calculating risk and its applications in their work. Mathematical tools for calculating and Controlling Catastrophic Risk Presents a systematic method for ranking the importance of societal threats Includes both Natural and Industrial Catastrophes Case studies cover such events as pandemic diseases, climate changes, major hurricanes, super earthquakes, mega tsunamis, volcanic eruptions, industrial accidents, and terrorist attacks

Quantifying and Controlling Catastrophic Risks
Quantifying and Controlling Catastrophic Risks

Author: B. John Garrick

Publisher: Academic Press

Published: 2008-09-11

Total Pages: 374

ISBN-13: 0123746019

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PART 1? WHY RISK ASSESSMENT -- Chapter 1? Understanding Risk Assessement -- 1.1The Target Risks -- 1.2The Quantitative Definition of Risk -- 1.3The Meaning of Quantification -- 1.4Form of the Results of a Quantitative Risk Assessment -- 1.5References -- Chapter 2? Analytical Foundations of Quantitative Risk Assessment -- 2.1Quantitative Definition of Risk -- 2.2The Scenario Approach to Quantitative Risk Assessment -- 2.3Interpretation of Probability and Likelihood -- 2.4Quantification of the Scenarios -- 2.5Assembling the Results -- 2.6References -- Chapter 3? The Rational Management of Catastrophic Risks -- 3.1Benefits of Quantitative Risk Assessment -- 3.2The Role of the Case Studies -- 3.3Comparing Quantitative Risks Using the Case Studies -- 3.4Observations from the Case Studies -- 3.5Insights from Comparing Results -- 3.6Where Do We Go from Here? -- References -- PART 2? Risk Assessment Case Studies -- Chapter 3? Risk of a Catastrophic Hurricane in -- 3.1Summary of the Risk Assess ...

Calculating Catastrophe
Calculating Catastrophe

Author: Gordon Woo

Publisher: World Scientific

Published: 2011

Total Pages: 368

ISBN-13: 1848167385

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Calculating Catastrophe has been written to explain, to a general readership, the underlying philosophical ideas and scientific principles that govern catastrophic events, both natural and man-made. Knowledge of the broad range of catastrophes deepens understanding of individual modes of disaster. This book will be of interest to anyone aspiring to understand catastrophes better, but will be of particular value to those engaged in public and corporate policy, and the financial markets.The author, Dr. Gordon Woo, was trained in mathematical physics at Cambridge, MIT and Harvard, and has made his career as a calculator of catastrophes. His diverse experience includes consulting for IAEA on the seismic safety of nuclear plants and for BP on offshore oil well drilling. As a catastrophist at Risk Management Solutions, he has advanced the insurance modelling of catastrophes, including designing a model for terrorism risk.

Global Catastrophic Risks
Global Catastrophic Risks

Author: Nick Bostrom

Publisher: OUP Oxford

Published: 2008-07-03

Total Pages: 875

ISBN-13: 0191578495

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A global catastrophic risk is one with the potential to wreak death and destruction on a global scale. In human history, wars and plagues have done so on more than one occasion, and misguided ideologies and totalitarian regimes have darkened an entire era or a region. Advances in technology are adding dangers of a new kind. It could happen again. In Global Catastrophic Risks 25 leading experts look at the gravest risks facing humanity in the 21st century, including asteroid impacts, gamma-ray bursts, Earth-based natural catastrophes, nuclear war, terrorism, global warming, biological weapons, totalitarianism, advanced nanotechnology, general artificial intelligence, and social collapse. The book also addresses over-arching issues - policy responses and methods for predicting and managing catastrophes. This is invaluable reading for anyone interested in the big issues of our time; for students focusing on science, society, technology, and public policy; and for academics, policy-makers, and professionals working in these acutely important fields.

Predicting Extreme Events
Predicting Extreme Events

Author: Oliver Edward Newth

Publisher:

Published: 2014

Total Pages: 73

ISBN-13:

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Engineers are well-placed when calculating the required resistance for natural and non-natural hazards. However, there are two main problems with the current approach. First, while hazards are one of the primary causes of catastrophic damage and the design against risk contributes vastly to the cost in design and construction, it is only considered late in the development process. Second, current design approaches tend to provide guidelines that do not explain the rationale behind the presented values, leaving the engineer without any true understanding of the actual risk of a hazard occurring. Data is a key aspect in accurate prediction, though its sources are often sparsely distributed and engineers rarely have the background in statistics to process this into meaningful and useful results. This thesis explores the existing approaches to designing against hazards, focussing on natural hazards such as earthquakes, and the type of existing geographic information systems (GIS) that exist to assist in this process. A conceptual design for a hazard-related GIS is then proposed, looking at the key requirements for a system that could communicate key hazard-related data and how it could be designed and implemented. Sources for hazard-related data are then discussed. Finally, models and methodologies for interpreting hazard-related data are examined, with a schematic for how a hazard focussed system could be structured. These look at how risk can be predicted in a transparent way which ensures that the user of such a system is able to understand the hazard-related risks for a given location.

Safety and Reliability – Safe Societies in a Changing World
Safety and Reliability – Safe Societies in a Changing World

Author: Stein Haugen

Publisher: CRC Press

Published: 2018-06-15

Total Pages: 4379

ISBN-13: 1351174649

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Safety and Reliability – Safe Societies in a Changing World collects the papers presented at the 28th European Safety and Reliability Conference, ESREL 2018 in Trondheim, Norway, June 17-21, 2018. The contributions cover a wide range of methodologies and application areas for safety and reliability that contribute to safe societies in a changing world. These methodologies and applications include: - foundations of risk and reliability assessment and management - mathematical methods in reliability and safety - risk assessment - risk management - system reliability - uncertainty analysis - digitalization and big data - prognostics and system health management - occupational safety - accident and incident modeling - maintenance modeling and applications - simulation for safety and reliability analysis - dynamic risk and barrier management - organizational factors and safety culture - human factors and human reliability - resilience engineering - structural reliability - natural hazards - security - economic analysis in risk management Safety and Reliability – Safe Societies in a Changing World will be invaluable to academics and professionals working in a wide range of industrial and governmental sectors: offshore oil and gas, nuclear engineering, aeronautics and aerospace, marine transport and engineering, railways, road transport, automotive engineering, civil engineering, critical infrastructures, electrical and electronic engineering, energy production and distribution, environmental engineering, information technology and telecommunications, insurance and finance, manufacturing, marine transport, mechanical engineering, security and protection, and policy making.

The Essential Engineer
The Essential Engineer

Author: Henry Petroski

Publisher: Vintage

Published: 2011-03-08

Total Pages: 290

ISBN-13: 0307473503

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From the acclaimed author of The Pencil and To Engineer Is Human, The Essential Engineer is an eye-opening exploration of the ways in which science and engineering must work together to address our world’s most pressing issues, from dealing with climate change and the prevention of natural disasters to the development of efficient automobiles and the search for renewable energy sources. While the scientist may identify problems, it falls to the engineer to solve them. It is the inherent practicality of engineering, which takes into account structural, economic, environmental, and other factors that science often does not consider, that makes engineering vital to answering our most urgent concerns. Henry Petroski takes us inside the research, development, and debates surrounding the most critical challenges of our time, exploring the feasibility of biofuels, the progress of battery-operated cars, and the question of nuclear power. He gives us an in-depth investigation of the various options for renewable energy—among them solar, wind, tidal, and ethanol—explaining the benefits and risks of each. Will windmills soon populate our landscape the way they did in previous centuries? Will synthetic trees, said to be more efficient at absorbing harmful carbon dioxide than real trees, soon dot our prairies? Will we construct a “sunshade” in outer space to protect ourselves from dangerous rays? In many cases, the technology already exists. What’s needed is not so much invention as engineering. Just as the great achievements of centuries past—the steamship, the airplane, the moon landing—once seemed beyond reach, the solutions to the twenty-first century’s problems await only a similar coordination of science and engineering. Eloquently reasoned and written, The Essential Engineer identifies and illuminates these problems—and, above all, sets out a course for putting ideas into action.

Risk Management in an Uncertain World
Risk Management in an Uncertain World

Author: Bill Sharon

Publisher: Bloomsbury Publishing

Published: 2012-08-30

Total Pages: 162

ISBN-13: 1849300615

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In an increasingly uncertain world, the pace of change is swift and quickening. Risk management is more important than ever before, and adaptability is key. Not every negative event can be mitigated, but the right approaches will allow a company to respond effectively and even to thrive in crisis situations. This approachable book features the advice of expert practitioner and academic authors, benefiting companies whatever their culture and operating environment. Worked examples and case studies span the operational aspects of risk management, reputation risk, and risks outside the control of any organization, forming a comprehensive guide. Detailed coverage includes: * Risk, metrics, and complexity * Countering supply chain risk * Business continuity management * Reputation risk and financial performance * Moving beyond compliance * Integrating catastrophe management * Human risk and rogues * Strategic risk management * Crisis management strategies * Exposure to country, political, and interest rate risks

Approaches to Enterprise Risk Management
Approaches to Enterprise Risk Management

Author: Bloomsbury Publishing

Publisher: A&C Black

Published: 2010-07-01

Total Pages: 242

ISBN-13: 1849300267

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Approaches to Enterprise Risk Management is a multi-author book written by leading experts in the field of risk management including Aswath Damodoran, John C. Groth and David Shimko. It is a valuable tool that enables you to assess the potential business threats, both from within your organization and from external sources. It comprises over 25 chapters covering the range of risks your organization might face including financial, strategic, operational risks. It offers you over 20 practical step-by-step guides on the required steps to cope with any detrimental event that could impact on your company's financial health. There are also a range of checklists including Balancing Hedging Objectives with Accounting Rules (FAS 133) , Creating a Risk Register, What Is Forensic Auditing? And Managing and Auditing the Risk of Business Interruption, Captive Insurance Companies: How to Reduce Your Costs, Hedging Credit Risk-Case Studies and Strategies.