We demonstrate empirically that not all capital flows influence exchange rates equally: Capital flows induced by foreign investors’ stock market transactions have both an economically significant and a permanent impact on exchange rates, whereas capital flows induced by foreign investors’ transactions in government bond markets do not. We relate these differences in the price impact of capital flows to differences in the amounts of private information conveyed by these flows. Our empirical findings are based on novel, daily-frequency datasets on prices and quantities of all transactions of foreign investors in the stock, bond, and onshore FX markets of Thailand.
This paper assesses empirically the key drivers of private capital flows to a large sample of emerging market economies in the last decade. It analyzes the effect of the global financial cycle, measured by the VIX, on capital flows and investigates the role of fundamentals and country characteristics in mitigating or amplifying its effect. Using interaction models, we find the effect of the VIX to be non-linear. For low levels of the VIX, capital flows are driven by fundamental factors. During periods of stress, the VIX becomes the dominant driver of capital flows while other determinants, with the exception of interest rate differentials, lose statistical significance. Our results also suggest that the effect of global financial conditions on gross private capital flows increases with the host country’s level of financial sector development. Finally, our results imply that countries cannot fully insulate themselves from global financial shocks, unless creating a fragmented global financial system.
This paper presents a new measure of capital flow pressures in the form of a recast Exchange Market Pressure index. The measure captures pressures that materialize in actual international capital flows as well as pressures that result in exchange rate adjustments. The formulation is theory-based, relying on balance of payments equilibrium conditions and international asset portfolio considerations. Based on the modified exchange market pressure index, the paper also proposes the Global Risk Response Index, which reflects the country-specific sensitivity of capital flow pressures to measures of global risk aversion. For a large sample of countries over time, we demonstrate time variation in the effects of global risk on exchange market pressures, the evolving importance of the global factor across types of countries, and the changing risk-on or risk-off status of currencies.
Staff Discussion Notes showcase the latest policy-related analysis and research being developed by individual IMF staff and are published to elicit comment and to further debate. These papers are generally brief and written in nontechnical language, and so are aimed at a broad audience interested in economic policy issues. This Web-only series replaced Staff Position Notes in January 2011.
America's international economic decisions rest to a large degree on the information available to policymakers. Yet the quality of international trade and financial data is in serious doubt. This book reveals how our systems for collecting and analyzing trade data have fallen behind the times-and presents recommendations for new approaches to accuracy and usefulness of these economic data. The volume traces the burgeoning use of international economic data by public and private analysts at a time when the United States is becoming increasingly integrated into the world economy. It also points out problems of capturing new transactions, comparing data from different sources, limited access to the data, and more. This is the first volume to review all three types of U.S. international data-merchandise trade, international services transactions, and capital flows. Highlights include: Specific steps for U.S. agencies to take. Special analyses on improving the accuracy of merchandise trade data, filling data gaps on the fast-growing international services transactions, and understanding structural changes in world capital markets. Comments, complaints, and suggestions from an original survey of more than 100 key users of trade data. This practical volume will be invaluable to policymakers, government officials, business executives, economists, statisticians, and researchers.
Recent changes in technology, along with the opening up of many regions previously closed to investment, have led to explosive growth in the international movement of capital. Flows from foreign direct investment and debt and equity financing can bring countries substantial gains by augmenting local savings and by improving technology and incentives. Investing companies acquire market access, lower cost inputs, and opportunities for profitable introductions of production methods in the countries where they invest. But, as was underscored recently by the economic and financial crises in several Asian countries, capital flows can also bring risks. Although there is no simple explanation of the currency crisis in Asia, it is clear that fixed exchange rates and chronic deficits increased the likelihood of a breakdown. Similarly, during the 1970s, the United States and other industrial countries loaned OPEC surpluses to borrowers in Latin America. But when the U.S. Federal Reserve raised interest rates to control soaring inflation, the result was a widespread debt moratorium in Latin America as many countries throughout the region struggled to pay the high interest on their foreign loans. International Capital Flows contains recent work by eminent scholars and practitioners on the experience of capital flows to Latin America, Asia, and eastern Europe. These papers discuss the role of banks, equity markets, and foreign direct investment in international capital flows, and the risks that investors and others face with these transactions. By focusing on capital flows' productivity and determinants, and the policy issues they raise, this collection is a valuable resource for economists, policymakers, and financial market participants.
The essays in this volume examine the theoretical and policy issues associated with international capital flows and exchange rates for emerging markets in the Pacific Basin region. Emerging market countries in both Asia and Latin America offer a wide variety of examples for the comparative study of the implications of international capital flow surges and appropriate policy responses. The essays address four broad issues. First, they investigate the determinants of international capital flows, particularly the relative role of domestic and external factors in driving capital flows. Second, they inquire how predictable and contagious capital flow reversals and exchange rate crises are. Third, they explore what the domestic economic effects of capital inflows on emerging economies have been, and finally seek to suggest what are the appropriate responses by policymakers to capital inflow surges.
