Modeling and Forecasting Primary Commodity Prices
Modeling and Forecasting Primary Commodity Prices

Author: Walter C. Labys

Publisher: Taylor & Francis

Published: 2017-03-02

Total Pages: 260

ISBN-13: 1351917099

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Recent economic growth in China and other Asian countries has led to increased commodity demand which has caused price rises and accompanying price fluctuations not only for crude oil but also for the many other raw materials. Such trends mean that world commodity markets are once again under intense scrutiny. This book provides new insights into the modeling and forecasting of primary commodity prices by featuring comprehensive applications of the most recent methods of statistical time series analysis. The latter utilize econometric methods concerned with structural breaks, unobserved components, chaotic discovery, long memory, heteroskedasticity, wavelet estimation and fractional integration. Relevant tests employed include neural networks, correlation dimensions, Lyapunov exponents, fractional integration and rescaled range. The price forecasting involves structural time series trend plus cycle and cyclical trend models. Practical applications focus on the price behaviour of more than twenty international commodity markets.

Commodity Prices and Markets
Commodity Prices and Markets

Author: Takatoshi Ito

Publisher: University of Chicago Press

Published: 2011-03

Total Pages: 346

ISBN-13: 0226386899

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Fluctuations of commodity prices, most notably of oil, capture considerable attention and have been tied to important economic effects. This book advances our understanding of the consequences of these fluctuations, providing both general analysis and a particular focus on the countries of the Pacific Rim.

Energy Transition Metals
Energy Transition Metals

Author: Lukas Boer

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2021-10-12

Total Pages: 41

ISBN-13: 1513599372

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The energy transition requires substantial amounts of metals such as copper, nickel, cobalt and lithium. Are these metals a key bottleneck? We identify metal-specific demand shocks, estimate supply elasticities and pin down the price impact of the energy transition in a structural scenario analysis. Metal prices would reach historical peaks for an unprecedented, sustained period in a net-zero emissions scenario. The total value of metals production would rise more than four-fold for the period 2021 to 2040, rivaling the total value of crude oil production. Metals are a potentially important input into integrated assessments models of climate change.

Primary Commodity Prices
Primary Commodity Prices

Author: L. Alan Winters

Publisher: Cambridge University Press

Published: 1990-03-08

Total Pages: 334

ISBN-13: 9780521385503

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Commodity markets are of considerable interest and importance to economists, econometricians and dealers. This book reports the proceedings of an international conference on 'Primary Commodity Prices: Economic Models and Policy', held in London under the auspices of the Centre for Economic Policy Research in March 1989. A range of papers by leading international authorities covers topics such as expectations formation in econometric commodity market models; price determination in the market for aluminium; the estimation of dynamic disequilibrium models with rational expectations; and a comparison of forward markets and buffer stocks as commodity earnings stabilizers. A key feature of this stock is its development of the policy implications of theoretical and empirical work in the field of commodity economics. Most papers are accompanied by discussant's comments to draw out their technical and policy implications. The book's readership will include commodity economists, commodity market practitioners and policy analysis, as well as professionals and advanced students interested in the fields of applied econometrics, economic development and international trade.

Modeling and Forecasting Primary Commodity Prices
Modeling and Forecasting Primary Commodity Prices

Author: Walter C. Labys

Publisher: Routledge

Published: 2017-03-02

Total Pages: 247

ISBN-13: 1351917080

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Recent economic growth in China and other Asian countries has led to increased commodity demand which has caused price rises and accompanying price fluctuations not only for crude oil but also for the many other raw materials. Such trends mean that world commodity markets are once again under intense scrutiny. This book provides new insights into the modeling and forecasting of primary commodity prices by featuring comprehensive applications of the most recent methods of statistical time series analysis. The latter utilize econometric methods concerned with structural breaks, unobserved components, chaotic discovery, long memory, heteroskedasticity, wavelet estimation and fractional integration. Relevant tests employed include neural networks, correlation dimensions, Lyapunov exponents, fractional integration and rescaled range. The price forecasting involves structural time series trend plus cycle and cyclical trend models. Practical applications focus on the price behaviour of more than twenty international commodity markets.

Unemployment and Primary Commodity Prices
Unemployment and Primary Commodity Prices

Author: Annalisa Cristini

Publisher: Springer

Published: 1999-04-30

Total Pages: 198

ISBN-13: 1349149721

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The book discusses the links between primary commodity prices and the OECD rate of unemployment. In particular it formalises and estimates a macroeconomic model which by endogenizing both the OECD rate of unemployment and primary commodity prices, is capable of accounting for the feedback running from the primary market back to the OECD economy. Simulations are also performed to provide insights into the propagation mechanism of an oil price shock and the role played by the various factors to determine the final effect.

Primary Commodities
Primary Commodities

Author: International Monetary Fund

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 1990-09-15

Total Pages: 48

ISBN-13: 9781557751461

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This study prepared by the Commodities Division of the Research Department reviews and analyzes the developments in commodity markets.

Commodity Price Dynamics
Commodity Price Dynamics

Author: Craig Pirrong

Publisher: Cambridge University Press

Published: 2011-10-31

Total Pages: 239

ISBN-13: 1139501976

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Commodities have become an important component of many investors' portfolios and the focus of much political controversy over the past decade. This book utilizes structural models to provide a better understanding of how commodities' prices behave and what drives them. It exploits differences across commodities and examines a variety of predictions of the models to identify where they work and where they fail. The findings of the analysis are useful to scholars, traders and policy makers who want to better understand often puzzling - and extreme - movements in the prices of commodities from aluminium to oil to soybeans to zinc.