Asset Price Dynamics, Volatility, and Prediction
Asset Price Dynamics, Volatility, and Prediction

Author: Stephen J. Taylor

Publisher: Princeton University Press

Published: 2011-02-11

Total Pages: 544

ISBN-13: 1400839254

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This book shows how current and recent market prices convey information about the probability distributions that govern future prices. Moving beyond purely theoretical models, Stephen Taylor applies methods supported by empirical research of equity and foreign exchange markets to show how daily and more frequent asset prices, and the prices of option contracts, can be used to construct and assess predictions about future prices, their volatility, and their probability distributions. Stephen Taylor provides a comprehensive introduction to the dynamic behavior of asset prices, relying on finance theory and statistical evidence. He uses stochastic processes to define mathematical models for price dynamics, but with less mathematics than in alternative texts. The key topics covered include random walk tests, trading rules, ARCH models, stochastic volatility models, high-frequency datasets, and the information that option prices imply about volatility and distributions. Asset Price Dynamics, Volatility, and Prediction is ideal for students of economics, finance, and mathematics who are studying financial econometrics, and will enable researchers to identify and apply appropriate models and methods. It will likewise be a valuable resource for quantitative analysts, fund managers, risk managers, and investors who seek realistic expectations about future asset prices and the risks to which they are exposed.

Interest Rate Dynamics, Derivatives Pricing, and Risk Management
Interest Rate Dynamics, Derivatives Pricing, and Risk Management

Author: Lin Chen

Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media

Published: 2012-12-06

Total Pages: 158

ISBN-13: 364246825X

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There are two types of tenn structure models in the literature: the equilibrium models and the no-arbitrage models. And there are, correspondingly, two types of interest rate derivatives pricing fonnulas based on each type of model of the tenn structure. The no-arbitrage models are characterized by the work of Ho and Lee (1986), Heath, Jarrow, and Morton (1992), Hull and White (1990 and 1993), and Black, Dennan and Toy (1990). Ho and Lee (1986) invent the no-arbitrage approach to the tenn structure modeling in the sense that the model tenn structure can fit the initial (observed) tenn structure of interest rates. There are a number of disadvantages with their model. First, the model describes the whole volatility structure by a sin gle parameter, implying a number of unrealistic features. Furthennore, the model does not incorporate mean reversion. Black-Dennan-Toy (1990) develop a model along tbe lines of Ho and Lee. They eliminate some of the problems of Ho and Lee (1986) but create a new one: for a certain specification of the volatility function, the short rate can be mean-fteeting rather than mean-reverting. Heath, Jarrow and Morton (1992) (HJM) construct a family of continuous models of the term struc ture consistent with the initial tenn structure data.

Commodity Price Dynamics
Commodity Price Dynamics

Author: Craig Pirrong

Publisher: Cambridge University Press

Published: 2011-10-31

Total Pages: 239

ISBN-13: 1139501976

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Commodities have become an important component of many investors' portfolios and the focus of much political controversy over the past decade. This book utilizes structural models to provide a better understanding of how commodities' prices behave and what drives them. It exploits differences across commodities and examines a variety of predictions of the models to identify where they work and where they fail. The findings of the analysis are useful to scholars, traders and policy makers who want to better understand often puzzling - and extreme - movements in the prices of commodities from aluminium to oil to soybeans to zinc.

Empirical Dynamic Asset Pricing
Empirical Dynamic Asset Pricing

Author: Kenneth J. Singleton

Publisher: Princeton University Press

Published: 2009-12-13

Total Pages: 497

ISBN-13: 1400829232

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Written by one of the leading experts in the field, this book focuses on the interplay between model specification, data collection, and econometric testing of dynamic asset pricing models. The first several chapters provide an in-depth treatment of the econometric methods used in analyzing financial time-series models. The remainder explores the goodness-of-fit of preference-based and no-arbitrage models of equity returns and the term structure of interest rates; equity and fixed-income derivatives prices; and the prices of defaultable securities. Singleton addresses the restrictions on the joint distributions of asset returns and other economic variables implied by dynamic asset pricing models, as well as the interplay between model formulation and the choice of econometric estimation strategy. For each pricing problem, he provides a comprehensive overview of the empirical evidence on goodness-of-fit, with tables and graphs that facilitate critical assessment of the current state of the relevant literatures. As an added feature, Singleton includes throughout the book interesting tidbits of new research. These range from empirical results (not reported elsewhere, or updated from Singleton's previous papers) to new observations about model specification and new econometric methods for testing models. Clear and comprehensive, the book will appeal to researchers at financial institutions as well as advanced students of economics and finance, mathematics, and science.

Leveraged Exchange-Traded Funds
Leveraged Exchange-Traded Funds

Author: Tim Leung

Publisher: Springer

Published: 2016-02-24

Total Pages: 104

ISBN-13: 3319290940

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This book provides an analysis, under both discrete-time and continuous-time frameworks, on the price dynamics of leveraged exchange-traded funds (LETFs), with emphasis on the roles of leverage ratio, realized volatility, investment horizon, and tracking errors. This study provides new insights on the risks associated with LETFs. It also leads to the discussion of new risk management concepts, such as admissible leverage ratios and admissible risk horizon, as well as the mathematical and empirical analyses of several trading strategies, including static portfolios, pairs trading, and stop-loss strategies involving ETFs and LETFs. The final part of the book addresses the pricing of options written on LETFs. Since different LETFs are designed to track the same reference index, these funds and their associated options share very similar sources of randomness. The authors provide a no-arbitrage pricing approach that consistently value options on LETFs with different leverage ratios with stochastic volatility and jumps in the reference index. Their results are useful for market making of these options, and for identifying price discrepancies across the LETF options markets. As the market of leveraged exchange-traded products become a sizeable connected part of the financial market, it is crucial to better understand its feedback effect and broader market impact. This is important not only for individual and institutional investors, but also for regulators.

Explicit Cost Dynamics
Explicit Cost Dynamics

Author: Reginald Tomas Yu-Lee

Publisher: John Wiley & Sons

Published: 2002-02-28

Total Pages: 239

ISBN-13: 0471047112

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GETTING TO THE BOTTOM OF THE BOTTOM LINE Traditional cost management systems typically defeat their own purpose by leading corporations to make decisions that ultimately do not optimize performance. These systems are the foundation for decisions that are made throughout the corporation. In order for organizations to increase performance beyond current capabilities, a new approach is needed that addresses issues such as understanding the true impact of various actions on the bottom line-and eliminating methods that distort numbers and narrow options. Explicit Cost Dynamics (ECD) offers such an alternative, and this expertly written, revolutionary book provides an indispensable introduction to the subject. Informative and easy-to-read, Explicit Cost Dynamics: Provides an alternative view and understanding of the impact of costs, actions, and time on the bottom line of a corporation Explains how this new theory can lead to an overall profit maximization Shows that costs can be considered as either a function of activities performed, as a function of resources expended, or of time Shows that the difference between explicit dollars flowing into and out of a company is equal to the rate of change of cash . . . and much more to help CEOs, CFOs, controllers, cost managers, financial managers, and others involved in the decision-making process improve their organizations' overall bottom lines.

The Pricing Dynamics of Utilities with Underdeveloped Networks
The Pricing Dynamics of Utilities with Underdeveloped Networks

Author: Omar O. Chisari

Publisher:

Published: 2007

Total Pages: 36

ISBN-13:

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This paper uses an analytically tractable intertemporal framework for analyzing the dynamic pricing of a utility with an underdeveloped network (a typical case in most developing countries) facing a competitive fringe, short-run network adjustment costs, theft of service, and the threat of a retaliatory regulatory review that is increasing with the price it charges. This simple dynamic optimization model yields a number of powerful policy insights and conclusions. Under a variety of plausible assumptions (in the context of developing countries) the utility will find its long-run profits enhanced if it exercises restraint in the early stages of network development by holding price below the limit defined by the unit costs of the fringe. The utility's optimal price gradually converges toward the limit price as its network expands. Moreover, when the utility is threatened with retaliatory regulatory intervention, it will generally have incentives to restrain its pricing behavior. These findings have important implications for the design of post-privatization regulatory governance in developing countries.

Dynamic Asset Pricing Theory
Dynamic Asset Pricing Theory

Author: Darrell Duffie

Publisher: Princeton University Press

Published: 2010-01-27

Total Pages: 488

ISBN-13: 1400829208

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This is a thoroughly updated edition of Dynamic Asset Pricing Theory, the standard text for doctoral students and researchers on the theory of asset pricing and portfolio selection in multiperiod settings under uncertainty. The asset pricing results are based on the three increasingly restrictive assumptions: absence of arbitrage, single-agent optimality, and equilibrium. These results are unified with two key concepts, state prices and martingales. Technicalities are given relatively little emphasis, so as to draw connections between these concepts and to make plain the similarities between discrete and continuous-time models. Readers will be particularly intrigued by this latest edition's most significant new feature: a chapter on corporate securities that offers alternative approaches to the valuation of corporate debt. Also, while much of the continuous-time portion of the theory is based on Brownian motion, this third edition introduces jumps--for example, those associated with Poisson arrivals--in order to accommodate surprise events such as bond defaults. Applications include term-structure models, derivative valuation, and hedging methods. Numerical methods covered include Monte Carlo simulation and finite-difference solutions for partial differential equations. Each chapter provides extensive problem exercises and notes to the literature. A system of appendixes reviews the necessary mathematical concepts. And references have been updated throughout. With this new edition, Dynamic Asset Pricing Theory remains at the head of the field.

Pricing Perspectives
Pricing Perspectives

Author: Florian Siems

Publisher: Springer

Published: 2008-11-03

Total Pages: 240

ISBN-13: 0230594891

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The world of pricing has been changing at a fast pace. There has been a development of new dynamic pricing strategies, an explosion of new pricing tactics, and a focus on smarter buyers. This book focuses on those developments and highlights new perspectives for pricing strategies.

Sovereign CDs and Bond Pricing Dynamics in Emerging Markets
Sovereign CDs and Bond Pricing Dynamics in Emerging Markets

Author: John Ammer

Publisher:

Published: 2007

Total Pages: 52

ISBN-13:

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"We examine the relationships between credit default swap (CDS) premiums and bond yield spreads for nine emerging market sovereign borrowers. We find that these two measures of credit risk deviate considerably in the short run, due to factors such as liquidity and contract specifications, but we estimate a stable long-term equilibrium relationship for most countries. In particular, CDS premiums tend to move more than one-for-one with yield spreads, which we show is broadly consistent with the presence of a significant "cheapest-to-deliver" (CTD) option. In addition, we find a variety of cross-sectional evidence of a CTD option being incorporated into CDS premiums. In our analysis of the short-term dynamics, we find that CDS premiums often move ahead of the bond market. However, we also find that bond spreads lead CDS premiums for emerging market sovereigns more often than has been found for investment-grade corporate credits, consistent with the CTD option impeding CDS liquidity for our riskier set of borrowers. Furthermore, the CDS market is less likely to lead for sovereigns that have issued more bonds, suggesting that the relative liquidity of the two markets is a key determinant of where price discovery occurs"--Federal Reserve Board web site.