Prediction and Causality in Econometrics and Related Topics
Prediction and Causality in Econometrics and Related Topics

Author: Nguyen Ngoc Thach

Publisher: Springer Nature

Published: 2021-07-26

Total Pages: 691

ISBN-13: 303077094X

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This book provides the ultimate goal of economic studies to predict how the economy develops—and what will happen if we implement different policies. To be able to do that, we need to have a good understanding of what causes what in economics. Prediction and causality in economics are the main topics of this book's chapters; they use both more traditional and more innovative techniques—including quantum ideas -- to make predictions about the world economy (international trade, exchange rates), about a country's economy (gross domestic product, stock index, inflation rate), and about individual enterprises, banks, and micro-finance institutions: their future performance (including the risk of bankruptcy), their stock prices, and their liquidity. Several papers study how COVID-19 has influenced the world economy. This book helps practitioners and researchers to learn more about prediction and causality in economics -- and to further develop this important research direction.

Causation, Prediction, and Search
Causation, Prediction, and Search

Author: Peter Spirtes

Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media

Published: 2012-12-06

Total Pages: 551

ISBN-13: 1461227488

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This book is intended for anyone, regardless of discipline, who is interested in the use of statistical methods to help obtain scientific explanations or to predict the outcomes of actions, experiments or policies. Much of G. Udny Yule's work illustrates a vision of statistics whose goal is to investigate when and how causal influences may be reliably inferred, and their comparative strengths estimated, from statistical samples. Yule's enterprise has been largely replaced by Ronald Fisher's conception, in which there is a fundamental cleavage between experimental and non experimental inquiry, and statistics is largely unable to aid in causal inference without randomized experimental trials. Every now and then members of the statistical community express misgivings about this turn of events, and, in our view, rightly so. Our work represents a return to something like Yule's conception of the enterprise of theoretical statistics and its potential practical benefits. If intellectual history in the 20th century had gone otherwise, there might have been a discipline to which our work belongs. As it happens, there is not. We develop material that belongs to statistics, to computer science, and to philosophy; the combination may not be entirely satisfactory for specialists in any of these subjects. We hope it is nonetheless satisfactory for its purpose.

Mechanism and Causality in Biology and Economics
Mechanism and Causality in Biology and Economics

Author: Hsiang-Ke Chao

Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media

Published: 2013-07-31

Total Pages: 256

ISBN-13: 9400724543

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This volume addresses fundamental issues in the philosophy of science in the context of two most intriguing fields: biology and economics. Written by authorities and experts in the philosophy of biology and economics, Mechanism and Causality in Biology and Economics provides a structured study of the concepts of mechanism and causality in these disciplines and draws careful juxtapositions between philosophical apparatus and scientific practice. By exploring the issues that are most salient to the contemporary philosophies of biology and economics and by presenting comparative analyses, the book serves as a platform not only for gaining mutual understanding between scientists and philosophers of the life sciences and those of the social sciences, but also for sharing interdisciplinary research that combines both philosophical concepts in both fields. The book begins by defining the concepts of mechanism and causality in biology and economics, respectively. The second and third parts investigate philosophical perspectives of various causal and mechanistic issues in scientific practice in the two fields. These two sections include chapters on causal issues in the theory of evolution; experiments and scientific discovery; representation of causal relations and mechanism by models in economics. The concluding section presents interdisciplinary studies of various topics concerning extrapolation of life sciences and social sciences, including chapters on the philosophical investigation of conjoining biological and economic analyses with, respectively, demography, medicine and sociology.

Machine Learning and Causality: The Impact of Financial Crises on Growth
Machine Learning and Causality: The Impact of Financial Crises on Growth

Author: Mr.Andrew J Tiffin

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2019-11-01

Total Pages: 30

ISBN-13: 1513518305

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Machine learning tools are well known for their success in prediction. But prediction is not causation, and causal discovery is at the core of most questions concerning economic policy. Recently, however, the literature has focused more on issues of causality. This paper gently introduces some leading work in this area, using a concrete example—assessing the impact of a hypothetical banking crisis on a country’s growth. By enabling consideration of a rich set of potential nonlinearities, and by allowing individually-tailored policy assessments, machine learning can provide an invaluable complement to the skill set of economists within the Fund and beyond.

Econometrics for Financial Applications
Econometrics for Financial Applications

Author: Ly H. Anh

Publisher: Springer

Published: 2017-12-18

Total Pages: 1089

ISBN-13: 3319731505

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This book addresses both theoretical developments in and practical applications of econometric techniques to finance-related problems. It includes selected edited outcomes of the International Econometric Conference of Vietnam (ECONVN2018), held at Banking University, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam on January 15-16, 2018. Econometrics is a branch of economics that uses mathematical (especially statistical) methods to analyze economic systems, to forecast economic and financial dynamics, and to develop strategies for achieving desirable economic performance. An extremely important part of economics is finances: a financial crisis can bring the whole economy to a standstill and, vice versa, a smart financial policy can dramatically boost economic development. It is therefore crucial to be able to apply mathematical techniques of econometrics to financial problems. Such applications are a growing field, with many interesting results – and an even larger number of challenges and open problems.

The Economics of Artificial Intelligence
The Economics of Artificial Intelligence

Author: Ajay Agrawal

Publisher: University of Chicago Press

Published: 2024-03-05

Total Pages: 172

ISBN-13: 0226833127

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A timely investigation of the potential economic effects, both realized and unrealized, of artificial intelligence within the United States healthcare system. In sweeping conversations about the impact of artificial intelligence on many sectors of the economy, healthcare has received relatively little attention. Yet it seems unlikely that an industry that represents nearly one-fifth of the economy could escape the efficiency and cost-driven disruptions of AI. The Economics of Artificial Intelligence: Health Care Challenges brings together contributions from health economists, physicians, philosophers, and scholars in law, public health, and machine learning to identify the primary barriers to entry of AI in the healthcare sector. Across original papers and in wide-ranging responses, the contributors analyze barriers of four types: incentives, management, data availability, and regulation. They also suggest that AI has the potential to improve outcomes and lower costs. Understanding both the benefits of and barriers to AI adoption is essential for designing policies that will affect the evolution of the healthcare system.

Financial Econometrics: Bayesian Analysis, Quantum Uncertainty, and Related Topics
Financial Econometrics: Bayesian Analysis, Quantum Uncertainty, and Related Topics

Author: Nguyen Ngoc Thach

Publisher: Springer Nature

Published: 2022-05-28

Total Pages: 865

ISBN-13: 3030986896

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This book overviews latest ideas and developments in financial econometrics, with an emphasis on how to best use prior knowledge (e.g., Bayesian way) and how to best use successful data processing techniques from other application areas (e.g., from quantum physics). The book also covers applications to economy-related phenomena ranging from traditionally analyzed phenomena such as manufacturing, food industry, and taxes, to newer-to-analyze phenomena such as cryptocurrencies, influencer marketing, COVID-19 pandemic, financial fraud detection, corruption, and shadow economy. This book will inspire practitioners to learn how to apply state-of-the-art Bayesian, quantum, and related techniques to economic and financial problems and inspire researchers to further improve the existing techniques and come up with new techniques for studying economic and financial phenomena. The book will also be of interest to students interested in latest ideas and results.

Methodological Issues in Psychology
Methodological Issues in Psychology

Author: David Trafimow

Publisher: Taylor & Francis

Published: 2023-08-17

Total Pages: 218

ISBN-13: 1000918327

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Methodological Issues in Psychology is a comprehensive text that challenges current practice in the discipline and provides solutions that are more useful in contemporary research, both basic and applied. This book begins by equipping the readers with the underlying foundation pertaining to basic philosophical issues addressing theory verification or falsification, distinguishing different levels of theorizing, or hypothesizing, and the assumptions necessary to negotiate between these levels. It goes on to specifically focus on statistical and inferential hypotheses including chapters on how to dramatically improve statistical and inferential practices and how to address the replication crisis. Advances to be featured include the author's own inventions, the a priori procedure and gain-probability diagrams, and a chapter about mediation analyses, which explains why such analyses are much weaker than typically assumed. The book also provides an introductory chapter on classical measurement theory and expands to new concepts in subsequent chapters. The final measurement chapter addresses the ubiquitous problem of small effect sizes in psychology and provides recommendations that directly contradict typical thinking and teaching in psychology, but with the consequence that researchers can enjoy dramatically improved effect sizes. Methodological Issues in Psychology is an invaluable asset for students and researchers of psychology. It will also be of vital interest to social science researchers and students in areas such as management, marketing, sociology, and experimental philosophy.

Causal Inference in Statistics
Causal Inference in Statistics

Author: Judea Pearl

Publisher: John Wiley & Sons

Published: 2016-01-25

Total Pages: 162

ISBN-13: 1119186862

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CAUSAL INFERENCE IN STATISTICS A Primer Causality is central to the understanding and use of data. Without an understanding of cause–effect relationships, we cannot use data to answer questions as basic as "Does this treatment harm or help patients?" But though hundreds of introductory texts are available on statistical methods of data analysis, until now, no beginner-level book has been written about the exploding arsenal of methods that can tease causal information from data. Causal Inference in Statistics fills that gap. Using simple examples and plain language, the book lays out how to define causal parameters; the assumptions necessary to estimate causal parameters in a variety of situations; how to express those assumptions mathematically; whether those assumptions have testable implications; how to predict the effects of interventions; and how to reason counterfactually. These are the foundational tools that any student of statistics needs to acquire in order to use statistical methods to answer causal questions of interest. This book is accessible to anyone with an interest in interpreting data, from undergraduates, professors, researchers, or to the interested layperson. Examples are drawn from a wide variety of fields, including medicine, public policy, and law; a brief introduction to probability and statistics is provided for the uninitiated; and each chapter comes with study questions to reinforce the readers understanding.