Beating the Business Cycle

Beating the Business Cycle

Author: Lakshman Achuthan

Publisher: Broadway Business

Published: 2004

Total Pages: 0

ISBN-13: 9780385509534

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While so many have failed at predicting recessions and recoveries in the economy in the past, what makes the predictions of the ECRI so different in their uncanny accuracy. Among many other turns in the economy, the institute successfully predicted the U.S. recession of 2001 six months before the economists did; the U.S. recession of 1991 five months in advance, and most recently, the weak U.S. recovery in 2002. In constant demand in the media, the ECRI has been called the secret weapono of companies both large and small, from the major fund managers and the central banks to Alan Greenspan himself. CYCLES OF CERTAINTY is the first book to reveal how managers, small business owners, and individuals can peer into the economy's future in making key decisions. By knowing whether the economy will contract or expand, a large company can better know whether to search out new clients and build new factories if the economy is growing, or consider cost cutting and layoffs in a looming recession. But CYCLES OF CERTAINTY isn't aimed just at Fortune 500 managers. The advice it offers applies just as strongly to small businesses and individuals, as well. Should the owners of a small laundromat open a second shop or sit tight? Is now a good time to consider changing careers, or going back to school? What about that new house you were considering is it the right time to buy, or should you hold off? Written in an easy-to-understand, accessible style, CYCLES OF CERTAINTY shows how anyone can adopt a business-cycleo mind-set, providing readers with the specific advice they need to check the key leading indicators, and apply that to their business, job, or major life decision.


Predicting Turning Points in the Interest Rate Cycle (RLE: Business Cycles)

Predicting Turning Points in the Interest Rate Cycle (RLE: Business Cycles)

Author: James W. Coons

Publisher: Routledge

Published: 2015-03-24

Total Pages: 154

ISBN-13: 1317498658

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Originally published in 1994 and the recipient of the Stonier Library Award, this volume evaluates an alternative approach – the sequential filter- to managing the uncertainty inherent in the future course of the interest rate cycle. The specific hypothesis is that the sequential filter can produce valuable signals of cyclical peaks and troughs in interest rates. The analysis focusses on US interest rates from April 1953 to December 1988.


Global Turning Points

Global Turning Points

Author: Mauro F. Guillén

Publisher: Cambridge University Press

Published: 2012-09-20

Total Pages: 193

ISBN-13: 1139577042

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The twenty-first century is replete with uncertainty and complexity: game-changing events and trends are transforming the world beyond recognition. For the first time in human history more people live in cities than in the countryside and greater numbers suffer from obesity than from hunger. Emerging economies now represent half of the global economy and during the next few decades India will be the biggest country in terms of population, China the largest in output and the United States the richest among the major economies on a per capita income basis. Food and water shortages will likely become humankind's most important challenge. In this accessible introduction, Mauro Guillén and Emilio Ontiveros deploy the tools of economics, sociology and political science to provide an analytical perspective on both the problems and opportunities facing business in the modern world.


Dynamic Factor Models

Dynamic Factor Models

Author: Siem Jan Koopman

Publisher: Emerald Group Publishing

Published: 2016-01-08

Total Pages: 685

ISBN-13: 1785603523

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This volume explores dynamic factor model specification, asymptotic and finite-sample behavior of parameter estimators, identification, frequentist and Bayesian estimation of the corresponding state space models, and applications.


Business Cycles

Business Cycles

Author: Francis X. Diebold

Publisher: Princeton University Press

Published: 2020-10-06

Total Pages: 438

ISBN-13: 0691219583

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This is the most sophisticated and up-to-date econometric analysis of business cycles now available. Francis Diebold and Glenn Rudebusch have long been acknowledged as leading experts on business cycles. And here they present a highly integrative collection of their most important essays on the subject, along with a detailed introduction that draws together the book's principal themes and findings. Diebold and Rudebusch use the latest quantitative methods to address five principal questions about the measurement, modeling, and forecasting of business cycles. They ask whether business cycles have become more moderate in the postwar period, concluding that recessions have, in fact, been shorter and shallower. They consider whether economic expansions and contractions tend to die of "old age." Contrary to popular wisdom, they find little evidence that expansions become more fragile the longer they last, although they do find that contractions are increasingly likely to end as they age. The authors discuss the defining characteristics of business cycles, focusing on how economic variables move together and on the timing of the slow alternation between expansions and contractions. They explore the difficulties of distinguishing between long-term trends in the economy and cyclical fluctuations. And they examine how business cycles can be forecast, looking in particular at how to predict turning points in cycles, rather than merely the level of future economic activity. They show here that the index of leading economic indicators is a poor predictor of future economic activity, and consider what we can learn from other indicators, such as financial variables. Throughout, the authors make use of a variety of advanced econometric techniques, including nonparametric analysis, fractional integration, and regime-switching models. Business Cycles is crucial reading for policymakers, bankers, and business executives.


Business Cycles, Indicators, and Forecasting

Business Cycles, Indicators, and Forecasting

Author: James H. Stock

Publisher: University of Chicago Press

Published: 2008-04-15

Total Pages: 350

ISBN-13: 0226774740

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The inability of forecasters to predict accurately the 1990-1991 recession emphasizes the need for better ways for charting the course of the economy. In this volume, leading economists examine forecasting techniques developed over the past ten years, compare their performance to traditional econometric models, and discuss new methods for forecasting and time series analysis.


The Financial Crisis Inquiry Report, Authorized Edition

The Financial Crisis Inquiry Report, Authorized Edition

Author: United States. Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission

Publisher: Public Affairs

Published: 2011-01-27

Total Pages: 578

ISBN-13: 1610390415

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Examines the causes of the financial crisis that began in 2008 and reveals the weaknesses found in financial regulation, excessive borrowing, and breaches in accountability.


Alzheimer’s Turning Point

Alzheimer’s Turning Point

Author: Jack C. de la Torre

Publisher: Springer

Published: 2016-06-25

Total Pages: 256

ISBN-13: 3319340573

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This compelling text provides an overview of the available technology for early detection and therapeutic management of vascular risk factors to Alzheimer’s before severe cognitive impairment symptoms appear. Chapters bring the reader from the trackless clinical research that has characterized Alzheimer’s progress for the last 20 years, to a nexus of new ideas and concepts that can change our outlook of this dementia. In-depth examinations of various hypotheses, preventive measures, current and prospective treatments are openly and clearly explored. The author discusses in depth his proposal of the vascular hypothesis of Alzheimer's disease which has become a mother-lode for basic and clinical studies and a key approach to the prevention of this dementia.Alzheimer’s Turning Point offers professionals, students and those looking to learn more about this disorder a fresh clinical perspective of this devastating disease.


Breakthrough Strategies for Predicting Any Market

Breakthrough Strategies for Predicting Any Market

Author: Jeff Greenblatt

Publisher: John Wiley & Sons

Published: 2013-09-30

Total Pages: 437

ISBN-13: 1118716019

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The revised and updated edition of the book that changed the way you think about trading In the Second Edition of this groundbreaking book by star trader Jeff Greenblatt, he continues to shares his hard-won lessons on what it takes to be a professional trader, while detailing his proven techniques for mastering market timing. With the help of numerous case studies and charts, Greenblatt develops his original high-probability pattern recognition system which, once mastered, endows its user with a deeper understanding of how the markets really work and boosts the efficiency of any trading methodology. Following in the footsteps of the great W.D. Gann, Jeff Greenblatt helps investors gain greater precision with any instrument they trade, during any time frame. Shows how to combine a variety of technical indicators to pinpoint turning points in the financial markets Makes even the most complex subject matter easy to understand with crystal-clear explanations and step-by-step guidance on all concepts, terms, processes, and techniques Reveals how to use Elliott Wave Analysis, Fibonacci, candlesticks, and momentum indicators to interpret market movements Breakthrough Strategies for Predicting Any Market shares fascinating and enlightening personal anecdotes from Jeff Greenblatt's career along with his candid reflection on developing and maintaining the mental discipline of a successful trader.


Leading Economic Indicators

Leading Economic Indicators

Author: Kajal Lahiri

Publisher: Cambridge University Press

Published: 1991

Total Pages: 488

ISBN-13: 9780521438582

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Developed fifty years ago by the National Bureau of Economic Research, the analytic methods of business cycles and economic indicators enable economists to forecast economic trends by examining the repetitive sequences that occur in business cycles. The methodology has proven to be an inexpensive and useful tool that is now used extensively throughout the world. In recent years, however, significant new developments have emerged in the field of business cycles and economic indicators. This volume contains twenty-two articles by international experts who are working with new and innovative approaches to indicator research. They cover advances in three broad areas of research: the use of new developments in economic theory and time-series analysis to rationalise existing systems of indicators; more appropriate methods to evaluate the forecasting records of leading indicators, particularly of turning point probability; and the development of new indicators.