This study was initiated in 1958 as part of the Abramovitz project to focus demographic aspects of U.S. swings. The final results of the project are presented in this volume.
This study was initiated in 1958 as part of the Abramovitz project to focus demographic aspects of U.S. swings. The final results of the project are presented in this volume.
Traditionally, economic growth and business cycles have been treated independently. However, the dependence of GDP levels on its history of shocks, what economists refer to as “hysteresis,” argues for unifying the analysis of growth and cycles. In this paper, we review the recent empirical and theoretical literature that motivate this paradigm shift. The renewed interest in hysteresis has been sparked by the persistence of the Global Financial Crisis and fears of a slow recovery from the Covid-19 crisis. The findings of the recent literature have far-reaching conceptual and policy implications. In recessions, monetary and fiscal policies need to be more active to avoid the permanent scars of a downturn. And in good times, running a high-pressure economy could have permanent positive effects.
Comparison with stationary and very fast rates of population growth shows modern population grwoth to have long-run positive effects on the standards of living. This is Julian Simon's contention, and he provides support for its validity in both more and less-developed countries. He notes that since each person constitutes a burden in the short run, whether population growth is judged good or bad depends on the importance the short run is accorded relative to the long run. The author first analyzes empirical data, formulating his conclusions using simulation models. He then reviews our knowledge of the effect of economic level upon population growth. A final section of his book considers the framework of welfare economics and values within which population policy decisions are now made. He finds that the implications of policy decisions can prove inconsistent with the values that prompt their recommendation. Originally published in 1977. The Princeton Legacy Library uses the latest print-on-demand technology to again make available previously out-of-print books from the distinguished backlist of Princeton University Press. These editions preserve the original texts of these important books while presenting them in durable paperback and hardcover editions. The goal of the Princeton Legacy Library is to vastly increase access to the rich scholarly heritage found in the thousands of books published by Princeton University Press since its founding in 1905.
Historians and economists will find here what their fields have in common - the movement since the 1950s known variously as 'cliometrics', 'economic history', or 'historical economics'. A leading figure in the movement, Donald McCloskey, has compiled, with the help of George Hersh and a panel of distinguished advisors, a highly comprehensive bibliography of historical economics covering the period up until 1980. The book will be useful to all economic historians, as well as quantitative historians, applied economists, historical demographers, business historians, national income accountants, and social historians.