Developments in Demographic Forecasting
Developments in Demographic Forecasting

Author: Stefano Mazzuco

Publisher: Springer Nature

Published: 2020-09-28

Total Pages: 261

ISBN-13: 3030424723

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This open access book presents new developments in the field of demographic forecasting, covering both mortality, fertility and migration. For each component emerging methods to forecast them are presented. Moreover, instruments for forecasting evaluation are provided. Bayesian models, nonparametric models, cohort approaches, elicitation of expert opinion, evaluation of probabilistic forecasts are some of the topics covered in the book. In addition, the book is accompanied by complementary material on the web allowing readers to practice with some of the ideas exposed in the book. Readers are encouraged to use this material to apply the new methods to their own data. The book is an important read for demographers, applied statisticians, as well as other social scientists interested or active in the field of population forecasting. Professional population forecasters in statistical agencies will find useful new ideas in various chapters.

Beyond Six Billion
Beyond Six Billion

Author: National Research Council

Publisher: National Academies Press

Published: 2000-10-11

Total Pages: 369

ISBN-13: 0309069904

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Is rapid world population growth actually coming to an end? As population growth and its consequences have become front-page issues, projections of slowing growth from such institutions as the United Nations and the World Bank have been called into question. Beyond Six Billion asks what such projections really say, why they say it, whether they can be trusted, and whether they can be improved. The book includes analysis of how well past U.N. and World Bank projections have panned out, what errors have occurred, and why they have happened. Focusing on fertility as one key to accurate projections, the committee examines the transition from high, constant fertility to low fertility levels and discusses whether developing countries will eventually attain the very low levels of births now observed in the industrialized world. Other keys to accurate projections, predictions of lengthening life span and of the impact of international migration on specific countries, are also explored in detail. How good are our methods of population forecasting? How can we cope with the inevitable uncertainty? What population trends can we anticipate? Beyond Six Billion illuminates not only the forces that shape population growth but also the accuracy of the methods we use to quantify these forces and the uncertainty surrounding projections. The Committee on Population was established by the National Academy of Sciences (NAS) in 1983 to bring the knowledge and methods of the population sciences to bear on major issues of science and public policy. The committee's work includes both basic studies of fertility, health and mortality, and migration; and applied studies aimed at improving programs for the public health and welfare in the United States and in developing countries. The committee also fosters communication among researchers in different disciplines and countries and policy makers in government, international agencies, and private organizations. The work of the committee is made possible by funding from several government agencies and private foundations.

Forecasting: principles and practice
Forecasting: principles and practice

Author: Rob J Hyndman

Publisher: OTexts

Published: 2018-05-08

Total Pages: 380

ISBN-13: 0987507117

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Forecasting is required in many situations. Stocking an inventory may require forecasts of demand months in advance. Telecommunication routing requires traffic forecasts a few minutes ahead. Whatever the circumstances or time horizons involved, forecasting is an important aid in effective and efficient planning. This textbook provides a comprehensive introduction to forecasting methods and presents enough information about each method for readers to use them sensibly.

Bayesian Demographic Estimation and Forecasting
Bayesian Demographic Estimation and Forecasting

Author: John Bryant

Publisher: CRC Press

Published: 2018-06-27

Total Pages: 348

ISBN-13: 0429841337

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Bayesian Demographic Estimation and Forecasting presents three statistical frameworks for modern demographic estimation and forecasting. The frameworks draw on recent advances in statistical methodology to provide new tools for tackling challenges such as disaggregation, measurement error, missing data, and combining multiple data sources. The methods apply to single demographic series, or to entire demographic systems. The methods unify estimation and forecasting, and yield detailed measures of uncertainty. The book assumes minimal knowledge of statistics, and no previous knowledge of demography. The authors have developed a set of R packages implementing the methods. Data and code for all applications in the book are available on www.bdef-book.com. "This book will be welcome for the scientific community of forecasters...as it presents a new approach which has already given important results and which, in my opinion, will increase its importance in the future." ~Daniel Courgeau, Institut national d'études démographiques

Advanced Techniques of Population Analysis
Advanced Techniques of Population Analysis

Author: S.S. Halli

Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media

Published: 1992-03-31

Total Pages: 258

ISBN-13: 9780306439971

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Utilizing the most recent developments in statistical modeling as applied to population studies, the authors interpret results obtained from available software and apply these results to current research issues.

Old and New Perspectives on Mortality Forecasting
Old and New Perspectives on Mortality Forecasting

Author: Tommy Bengtsson

Publisher: Springer

Published: 2019-03-28

Total Pages: 341

ISBN-13: 3030050750

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This open access book describes methods of mortality forecasting and discusses possible improvements. It contains a selection of previously unpublished and published papers, which together provide a state-of-the-art overview of statistical approaches as well as behavioural and biological perspectives. The different parts of the book provide discussions of current practice, probabilistic forecasting, the linearity in the increase of life expectancy, causes of death, and the role of cohort factors. The key question in the book is whether it is possible to project future mortality accurately, and if so, what is the best approach. This makes the book a valuable read to demographers, pension planners, actuaries, and all those interested and/or working in modelling and forecasting mortality.

Methods of Demographic Analysis
Methods of Demographic Analysis

Author: Farhat Yusuf

Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media

Published: 2013-10-22

Total Pages: 334

ISBN-13: 9400767846

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This book provides an up-to-date overview of demographic analysis and methods, including recent developments in demography. Concepts and methods, from the nature of demographic information through data collection and the basics of statistical measures and on to demographic analysis itself are succinctly explained. Measures and analyses of fertility, mortality, life tables, migration and demographic events such as marriage, education and labour force are described while later chapters cover multiple decrement tables, population projections, the importance of testing and smoothing demographic data, the stable population model and demographic software. An emphasis on practical aspects and the use of real-life examples based on data from around the globe make this book accessible, whilst comprehensive references and links to data and other resources on the internet help readers to explore further. The text is concise and well written, making it ideally suited to a wider audience from students to academics and teachers. Students of demography, geography, sociology, economics, as well as professionals, academics and students of marketing, human resource management, and public health who have an interest in population issues will all find this book useful.