Plight of the Fortune Tellers

Plight of the Fortune Tellers

Author: Riccardo Rebonato

Publisher: Princeton University Press

Published: 2007-09-17

Total Pages: 303

ISBN-13: 1400824370

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Today's top financial-risk professionals have come to rely on ever-more sophisticated mathematics in their attempts to come to grips with financial risk. But this excessive reliance on quantitative precision is misleading--and it puts us all at risk. This is the case that Riccardo Rebonato makes in Plight of the Fortune Tellers--and coming from someone who is both an experienced market professional and an academic, this heresy is worth listening to. Rebonato forcefully argues that we must restore genuine decision making to our financial planning, and he shows us how to do it using probability, experimental psychology, and decision theory. This is the only way to effectively manage financial risk in a manner congruent with how human beings actually react to chance. Rebonato challenges us to rethink the standard wisdom about probability in financial-risk management. Risk managers have become obsessed with measuring risk and believe that these quantitative results by themselves can guide sound financial choices--but they can't. In this book, Rebonato offers a radical yet surprisingly commonsense solution, one that seeks to remind us that managing risk comes down to real people making decisions under uncertainty. Plight of the Fortune Tellers is not only a book for the decision makers of Wall Street, it's a must-read for anyone concerned about how today's financial markets are run. The stakes have never been higher--can you risk it?


Plight of the Fortune Tellers

Plight of the Fortune Tellers

Author: Riccardo Rebonato

Publisher: Princeton University Press

Published: 2010-11-08

Total Pages: 325

ISBN-13: 1400836395

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Today's top financial professionals have come to rely on ever-more sophisticated mathematics in their attempts to come to grips with financial risk. But this excessive reliance on quantitative precision is misleading--and puts everyone at risk. In Plight of the Fortune Tellers, Riccardo Rebonato forcefully argues that we must restore genuine decision making to our financial planning. Presenting a financial model that uses probability, experimental psychology, and decision theory, Rebonato challenges us to rethink the standard wisdom about risk management. He offers a radical yet surprisingly commonsense solution: managing risk comes down to real people making decisions under uncertainty. Plight of the Fortune Tellers is a must-read for anyone concerned about how today's financial markets are run. In a new preface, Rebonato explains how the ideas presented in this book fit into the context of the global financial crisis that followed its original publication. He argues that risk managers are still stuck in a probabilistic rut, and need to engage with the structural causes of real events.


The End of Theory

The End of Theory

Author: Richard Bookstaber

Publisher: Princeton University Press

Published: 2019-04-02

Total Pages: 236

ISBN-13: 0691191859

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An in-depth look at how to account for the human complexities at the heart of today’s financial system Our economy may have recovered from the Great Recession—but not our economics. The End of Theory discusses why the human condition and the radical uncertainty of our world renders the standard economic model—and the theory behind it—useless for dealing with financial crises. What model should replace it? None. At least not any version we’ve been using for the past two hundred years. Richard Bookstaber argues for a new approach called agent-based economics, one that takes as a starting point the fact that we are humans, not the optimizing automatons that standard economics assumes we are. Sweeping aside the historic failure of twentieth-century economics, The End of Theory offers a novel perspective and more realistic framework to help prevent today's financial system from blowing up again.


Finding Fortune

Finding Fortune

Author: Delia Ray

Publisher: Farrar, Straus and Giroux (BYR)

Published: 2015-11-10

Total Pages: 287

ISBN-13: 0374300674

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When Ren sees her mom heading out to dinner with that creep Rick Littleton, she's furious. How could her mom do that to her dad, a soldier stuck over in Afghanistan? Ren decides to run away to the school-turned-boardinghouse in the next town over. Once there, she makes friends with a boy named Hugh, who tells her that the boardinghouse is the site of a mystery. Every night, the owner, Ms. Baxter, searches for a treasure left in the building years ago. If Ms. Baxter can't find it, then the boarding house might shut down for good, and her dream of preserving the town's history by opening a pearl button museum will never come true. By the time Ren, Hugh, and other visitors help find the treasure-a bag of pearls-Ren and her mom also have found a way to forgive each other.


Modern Pricing of Interest-Rate Derivatives

Modern Pricing of Interest-Rate Derivatives

Author: Riccardo Rebonato

Publisher: Princeton University Press

Published: 2012-01-16

Total Pages: 486

ISBN-13: 1400829321

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In recent years, interest-rate modeling has developed rapidly in terms of both practice and theory. The academic and practitioners' communities, however, have not always communicated as productively as would have been desirable. As a result, their research programs have often developed with little constructive interference. In this book, Riccardo Rebonato draws on his academic and professional experience, straddling both sides of the divide to bring together and build on what theory and trading have to offer. Rebonato begins by presenting the conceptual foundations for the application of the LIBOR market model to the pricing of interest-rate derivatives. Next he treats in great detail the calibration of this model to market prices, asking how possible and advisable it is to enforce a simultaneous fitting to several market observables. He does so with an eye not only to mathematical feasibility but also to financial justification, while devoting special scrutiny to the implications of market incompleteness. Much of the book concerns an original extension of the LIBOR market model, devised to account for implied volatility smiles. This is done by introducing a stochastic-volatility, displaced-diffusion version of the model. The emphasis again is on the financial justification and on the computational feasibility of the proposed solution to the smile problem. This book is must reading for quantitative researchers in financial houses, sophisticated practitioners in the derivatives area, and students of finance.


The Fortune Teller's Mah Jongg

The Fortune Teller's Mah Jongg

Author: Derek Walters

Publisher: Penguin Putnam

Published: 1994

Total Pages: 0

ISBN-13: 9780670856404

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An enchanting novelty for anyone fascinated by Chinese culture, the game that has challenged players for centuries has been adapted for more mystical pursuits--predicting the future and imparting wisdom. Includes complete instructions and four decks of cards representing the traditional tiles.


Rational Decisions

Rational Decisions

Author: Ken Binmore

Publisher: Princeton University Press

Published: 2008-12-29

Total Pages: 214

ISBN-13: 1400833094

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It is widely held that Bayesian decision theory is the final word on how a rational person should make decisions. However, Leonard Savage--the inventor of Bayesian decision theory--argued that it would be ridiculous to use his theory outside the kind of small world in which it is always possible to "look before you leap." If taken seriously, this view makes Bayesian decision theory inappropriate for the large worlds of scientific discovery and macroeconomic enterprise. When is it correct to use Bayesian decision theory--and when does it need to be modified? Using a minimum of mathematics, Rational Decisions clearly explains the foundations of Bayesian decision theory and shows why Savage restricted the theory's application to small worlds. The book is a wide-ranging exploration of standard theories of choice and belief under risk and uncertainty. Ken Binmore discusses the various philosophical attitudes related to the nature of probability and offers resolutions to paradoxes believed to hinder further progress. In arguing that the Bayesian approach to knowledge is inadequate in a large world, Binmore proposes an extension to Bayesian decision theory--allowing the idea of a mixed strategy in game theory to be expanded to a larger set of what Binmore refers to as "muddled" strategies. Written by one of the world's leading game theorists, Rational Decisions is the touchstone for anyone needing a concise, accessible, and expert view on Bayesian decision making.


Fortune's Rocks

Fortune's Rocks

Author: Anita Shreve

Publisher: St. Martin's Press

Published: 1999-12-02

Total Pages: 468

ISBN-13: 9780316781015

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Olympia Biddeford's passionate affair with a married man nearly three times her age, results in her being exiled from society and forces her to make a new life for herself.


The Fortune Cookie Chronicles

The Fortune Cookie Chronicles

Author: Jennifer 8 Lee

Publisher: Hachette+ORM

Published: 2008-02-01

Total Pages: 237

ISBN-13: 0446511706

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If you think McDonald's is the most ubiquitous restaurant experience in America, consider that there are more Chinese restaurants in America than McDonalds, Burger Kings, and Wendys combined. New York Times reporter and Chinese-American (or American-born Chinese). In her search, Jennifer 8 Lee traces the history of Chinese-American experience through the lens of the food. In a compelling blend of sociology and history, Jenny Lee exposes the indentured servitude Chinese restaurants expect from illegal immigrant chefs, investigates the relationship between Jews and Chinese food, and weaves a personal narrative about her own relationship with Chinese food. The Fortune Cookie Chronicles speaks to the immigrant experience as a whole, and the way it has shaped our country.


American-Style Derivatives

American-Style Derivatives

Author: Jerome Detemple

Publisher: CRC Press

Published: 2005-12-09

Total Pages: 247

ISBN-13: 1420034863

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Focusing on recent developments in the field, American-Style Derivatives provides an extensive treatment of option pricing with emphasis on the valuation of American options on dividend-paying assets. This book reviews valuation principles for European contingent claims and extends the analysis to American contingent claims. It presents basic valuation principles for American options including barrier, capped, and multi-asset options. It also reviews numerical methods for option pricing and compares their relative performance. Ideal for students and researchers in quantitative finance, this material is accessible to those with a background in stochastic processes or derivative securities.