Optimal Monetary Policy Under Uncertainty

Optimal Monetary Policy Under Uncertainty

Author: Richard T. Froyen

Publisher: Edward Elgar Publishing

Published: 2008-01-01

Total Pages: 341

ISBN-13: 1847208649

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Froyen and Guender have provided a thorough and careful analysis of optimal monetary policy over most of the range of theoretical models that have been used in modern macroeconomics. By providing a comprehensive and clear comparative framework they will help the student of monetary policy understand why there have been conflicting views of what policy makers should do. Central Banking In Optimal Monetary Policy Under Uncertainty, academicians and economists Richard T. Froyen and Alfred V. Guender have collaborated on presenting an informed and informative survey of optimal monetary policy literature arising during the 1970s and 1980s as a ground work for understanding current market and other economic influences on such germane issues as discretion versus commitment, target versus instrument rules, and the delegation of policy making authority within the private and public sectors. With meticulous attention to scholarship and objectivity. . . Optimal Monetary Policy Under Uncertainty is a thoughtful and thought-provoking body of work that is very strongly recommended for professional, academic, corporate and governmental economic reference collections and supplemental reading lists. Midwest Book Review Recently there has been a resurgence of interest in the study of optimal monetary policy under uncertainty. This book provides a thorough survey of the literature that has resulted from this renewed interest. The authors ground recent contributions on the science of monetary policy in the literature of the 1970s, which viewed optimal monetary policy as primarily a question of the best use of information, and studies in the 1980s that gave primacy to time inconsistency problems. This broad focus leads to a better understanding of current issues such as discretion versus commitment, target versus instrument rules, and the merits of delegation of policy authority. Casting a wide net, the authors survey the recent literature on the New Keynesian approach to optimal monetary policy in the context of the earlier literature. They emphasize the relationship between policy decisions and the information set available to the policymaker, a central focus of the earlier literature, obscured in much recent work. Optimal policy questions are considered in open as well as closed economy models and the often confusing terminology in the literature is sorted and clarified. Questions are considered within easily analysed models and the authors clearly show why these models lead to different (or equivalent) policy conclusions. Recent policy issues such as desirability of inflation targeting and the relative merits of target versus instrument rules are covered in detail. Economists in academia and in policymaking organizations who want to learn about recent developments in the area of optimal monetary policy, as well as graduate and advanced undergraduate students in macroeconomic and monetary economics, will find this volume a clear and thorough examination of the topic.


Robust Optimal Policy in a Forward-looking Model with Parameter and Shock Uncertainty

Robust Optimal Policy in a Forward-looking Model with Parameter and Shock Uncertainty

Author: Marc Paolo Giannoni

Publisher:

Published: 2006

Total Pages: 52

ISBN-13:

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This paper characterizes a robust optimal policy rule in a simple forward-looking model, when the policymaker faces uncertainty about model parameters and shock processes. We show that the robust optimal policy rule is likely to involve a stronger response of the interest rate to fluctuations in inflation and the output gap than is the case in the absence of uncertainty. Thus parameter uncertainty alone does not necessarily justify a small response of monetary policy to perturbations. However uncertainty may amplify the degree of "super-inertia" required by optimal monetary policy. We finally discuss the sensitivity of the results to alternative assumptions.


Designing a Simple Loss Function for Central Banks

Designing a Simple Loss Function for Central Banks

Author: Davide Debortoli

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2017-07-21

Total Pages: 56

ISBN-13: 1484311752

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Yes, it makes a lot of sense. This paper studies how to design simple loss functions for central banks, as parsimonious approximations to social welfare. We show, both analytically and quantitatively, that simple loss functions should feature a high weight on measures of economic activity, sometimes even larger than the weight on inflation. Two main factors drive our result. First, stabilizing economic activity also stabilizes other welfare relevant variables. Second, the estimated model features mitigated inflation distortions due to a low elasticity of substitution between monopolistic goods and a low interest rate sensitivity of demand. The result holds up in the presence of measurement errors, with large shocks that generate a trade-off between stabilizing inflation and resource utilization, and also when ensuring a low probability of hitting the zero lower bound on interest rates.


Robust Monetary Policy with Imperfect Knowledge

Robust Monetary Policy with Imperfect Knowledge

Author: Athanasios Orphanides

Publisher:

Published: 2007

Total Pages: 76

ISBN-13:

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We examine the performance and robustness properties of monetary policy rules in an estimated macroeconomic model in which the economy undergoes structural change andwhere private agents and the central bank possess imperfect knowledge about the true structure of the economy. Policymakers follow an interest rate rule aiming to maintain price stability and to minimize fluctuations of unemployment around its natural rate but areuncertain about the economy's natural rates of interest and unemployment and how private agents form expectations. In particular, we consider two models of expectations formation :rational expectations and learning. We show that in this environment the ability to stabilize the real side of the economy is significantly reduced relative to an economy under rational expectations with perfect knowledge. Furthermore, policies that would be optimal under perfect knowledge can perform very poorly if knowledge is imperfect. Efficient policies that take account of private learning and misperceptions of natural rates call for greater policy inertia, a more aggressive response to inflation, and a smaller response to the perceived unemployment gap than would be optimal if everyone had perfect knowledge of the economy. We show that such policies are quite robust to potential misspecification of private sector learning and the magnitude of variation in natural rates.