On the Heterogeneity Bias of Pooled Estimators in Stationary VAR Specifications
On the Heterogeneity Bias of Pooled Estimators in Stationary VAR Specifications

Author: Alessandro Rebucci

Publisher:

Published: 2006

Total Pages: 45

ISBN-13:

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This paper studies asymptotically the bias of the fixed effect (FE) estimator induced by cross-section heterogeneity in the slope parameters of stationary vector autoregressions (VARs). The paper also compares the FE, the mean group estimator (MG), and a simple instrumental variable alternative (IV) in Monte Carlo simulations. The main results are: (i) asymptotically, the heterogeneity bias of the FE may be more or less severe in VAR specifications than in standard dynamic panel data specifications; (ii) in Monte Carlo simulations, slope heterogeneity must be relatively high to be a source of concern for pooled estimators; (iii) when this happens, the panel must be longer than a typical macro dataset for the MG to be a viable solution.

On the Heterogeneity Bias of Pooled Estimators in Stationary VAR Specifications
On the Heterogeneity Bias of Pooled Estimators in Stationary VAR Specifications

Author: Mr.Alessandro Rebucci

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2003-04-01

Total Pages: 46

ISBN-13: 1451849486

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This paper studies asymptotically the bias of the fixed effect (FE) estimator induced by cross-section heterogeneity in the slope parameters of stationary vector autoregressions (VARs). The paper also compares the FE, the mean group estimator (MG), and a simple instrumental variable alternative (IV) in Monte Carlo simulations. The main results are: (i) asymptotically, the heterogeneity bias of the FE may be more or less severe in VAR specifications than in standard dynamic panel data specifications; (ii) in Monte Carlo simulations, slope heterogeneity must be relatively high to be a source of concern for pooled estimators; (iii) when this happens, the panel must be longer than a typical macro dataset for the MG to be a viable solution.

Financial Liberalisation
Financial Liberalisation

Author: Philip Arestis

Publisher: Springer

Published: 2016-11-26

Total Pages: 384

ISBN-13: 3319412191

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This book is the thirteenth volume in the International Papers in Political Economy (IPPE) series which explores the latest developments in political economy. A collection of eight papers, the book concentrates on the deregulation of domestic financial markets and discusses financial liberalisation in terms of its past performance, current progress and future developments. The chapters have been written by expert contributors in the field and focus on topics such as past records of financial liberalisation, future policies of regulation, and current account imbalances. Other papers examine capital account regulations in developing and emerging countries, and capital controls in the Eurozone after the 2007 financial crisis. This collection of papers invites readers to consider the impact of financial liberalisation both during and after the global economic crisis. Scholars and students with an interest in political economy, financialisation, and economic performance will find this collection stimulating and informative.

Limits of Floating Exchange Rates
Limits of Floating Exchange Rates

Author: Mr.Sebastian Weber

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2011-02-01

Total Pages: 53

ISBN-13: 1455219002

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A traditional argument in favor of flexible exchange rates is that they insulate output better from real shocks, because the exchange rate can adjust and stabilize demand for domestic goods through expenditure switching. This argument is weakened in models with high foreign currency debt and low exchange rate pass-through to import prices. The present study evaluates the empirical relevance of these two factors. We analyze the transmission of real external shocks to the domestic economy under fixed and flexible exchange rate regimes for a broad sample of countries in a Panel VAR and let the responses vary with foreign currency indebtedness and import structure. We find that flexible exchange rates do not insulate output better from external shocks if the country imports mainly low pass-through goods and can even amplify the output response if foreign indebtedness is high.

Financial Regulation and the Current Account
Financial Regulation and the Current Account

Author: Mr.Sergi Lanau

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2012-04-01

Total Pages: 51

ISBN-13: 1475578547

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This paper examines the relationship between financial regulation and the current account in an intertemporal model of the current account where financial regulation affects the current account through liquidity constraints. Greater liquidity constraints decrease the size and persistence of the current account response to a net output shock. The theory is tested with an interacted panel VAR model where the coefficients are allowed to vary with the degree of financial regulation. The current account reaction to an output shock is 60% larger and substantially more persistent in a country with low financial regulation than in one with high financial regulation.

Global Growth and Financial Spillovers and the South African Macro-economy
Global Growth and Financial Spillovers and the South African Macro-economy

Author: Mthuli Ncube

Publisher: Springer

Published: 2016-04-29

Total Pages: 203

ISBN-13: 1137512962

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To what extent is South Africa affected by G8 economies and BRIC growth shocks? This book identifies channels that amplify these shock effects, the relevance of third country transmission effects and the effects of the first and second rounds of US quantitative easing. The changing reactions of South African variables over time to financial shocks emanating from the US and selected countries in the Euro area, is presented. The book quantifies the effects of capital flow shocks, determines the counterfactuals of asset prices and economic growth variables, and compares the contribution of capital flows and domestic macro factors on asset prices. The effects of the exchange rate depreciation are contrasted to the decline in investment as key drivers of the trade balance. Stock market interdependence is determined amongst South African, Indian and Brazilian equities. The contributions of stock price returns and volatility on South African economic growth are contrasted. The authors construct a financial stress index for South Africa and determine how it amplifies shocks.

Oil Price Shocks and Economic Growth in Oil-Exporting Countries
Oil Price Shocks and Economic Growth in Oil-Exporting Countries

Author: Amir Sadeghi

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2017-12-22

Total Pages: 27

ISBN-13: 1484336275

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This paper examines the impact of government size on how output and government expenditure respond to oil price shocks in 28 oil-exporting countries between 1990 and 2016. Results suggest that if the size of government (measured by government expenditure-to-(non-oil) GDP ratio) is larger, non-oil output growth, in response to a positive oil price shock, tends to be greater and output volatility higher. Furthermore, I find that an unexpected increase in oil price leads to expansion in government expenditure and the expansion is larger, the larger is the government. This paper provides empirical evidence for direct correlation between government size and macroecnomic stability in oil-exporting countries. The findings imply that fiscal consolidation and economic diversification help to narrow down economic exposure to exogenous oil price shocks and reduce volatility in non-oil output.

Time Series and Panel Data Econometrics
Time Series and Panel Data Econometrics

Author: M. Hashem Pesaran

Publisher: Oxford University Press, USA

Published: 2015

Total Pages: 1095

ISBN-13: 0198759983

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The book describes and illustrates many advances that have taken place in a number of areas in theoretical and applied econometrics over the past four decades.