On Motion Planning Using Numerical Optimal Control
On Motion Planning Using Numerical Optimal Control

Author: Kristoffer Bergman

Publisher: Linköping University Electronic Press

Published: 2019-05-28

Total Pages: 112

ISBN-13: 9176850579

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During the last decades, motion planning for autonomous systems has become an important area of research. The high interest is not the least due to the development of systems such as self-driving cars, unmanned aerial vehicles and robotic manipulators. In this thesis, the objective is not only to find feasible solutions to a motion planning problem, but solutions that also optimize some kind of performance measure. From a control perspective, the resulting problem is an instance of an optimal control problem. In this thesis, the focus is to further develop optimal control algorithms such that they be can used to obtain improved solutions to motion planning problems. This is achieved by combining ideas from automatic control, numerical optimization and robotics. First, a systematic approach for computing local solutions to motion planning problems in challenging environments is presented. The solutions are computed by combining homotopy methods and numerical optimal control techniques. The general principle is to define a homotopy that transforms, or preferably relaxes, the original problem to an easily solved problem. The approach is demonstrated in motion planning problems in 2D and 3D environments, where the presented method outperforms both a state-of-the-art numerical optimal control method based on standard initialization strategies and a state-of-the-art optimizing sampling-based planner based on random sampling. Second, a framework for automatically generating motion primitives for lattice-based motion planners is proposed. Given a family of systems, the user only needs to specify which principle types of motions that are relevant for the considered system family. Based on the selected principle motions and a selected system instance, the algorithm not only automatically optimizes the motions connecting pre-defined boundary conditions, but also simultaneously optimizes the terminal state constraints as well. In addition to handling static a priori known system parameters such as platform dimensions, the framework also allows for fast automatic re-optimization of motion primitives if the system parameters change while the system is in use. Furthermore, the proposed framework is extended to also allow for an optimization of discretization parameters, that are are used by the lattice-based motion planner to define a state-space discretization. This enables an optimized selection of these parameters for a specific system instance. Finally, a unified optimization-based path planning approach to efficiently compute locally optimal solutions to advanced path planning problems is presented. The main idea is to combine the strengths of sampling-based path planners and numerical optimal control. The lattice-based path planner is applied to the problem in a first step using a discretized search space, where system dynamics and objective function are chosen to coincide with those used in a second numerical optimal control step. This novel tight combination of a sampling-based path planner and numerical optimal control makes, in a structured way, benefit of the former method’s ability to solve combinatorial parts of the problem and the latter method’s ability to obtain locally optimal solutions not constrained to a discretized search space. The proposed approach is shown in several practically relevant path planning problems to provide improvements in terms of computation time, numerical reliability, and objective function value.

Exploiting Direct Optimal Control for Motion Planning in Unstructured Environments
Exploiting Direct Optimal Control for Motion Planning in Unstructured Environments

Author: Kristoffer Bergman

Publisher: Linköping University Electronic Press

Published: 2021-03-16

Total Pages: 60

ISBN-13: 9179296777

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During the last decades, motion planning for autonomous systems has become an important area of research. The high interest is not the least due to the development of systems such as self-driving cars, unmanned aerial vehicles and robotic manipulators. The objective in optimal motion planning problems is to find feasible motion plans that also optimize a performance measure. From a control perspective, the problem is an instance of an optimal control problem. This thesis addresses optimal motion planning problems for complex dynamical systems that operate in unstructured environments, where no prior reference such as road-lane information is available. Some example scenarios are autonomous docking of vessels in harbors and autonomous parking of self-driving tractor-trailer vehicles at loading sites. The focus is to develop optimal motion planning algorithms that can reliably be applied to these types of problems. This is achieved by combining recent ideas from automatic control, numerical optimization and robotics. The first contribution is a systematic approach for computing local solutions to motion planning problems in challenging unstructured environments. The solutions are computed by combining homotopy methods and direct optimal control techniques. The general principle is to define a homotopy that transforms, or preferably relaxes, the original problem to an easily solved problem. The approach is demonstrated in motion planning problems in 2D and 3D environments, where the presented method outperforms a state-of-the-art asymptotically optimal motion planner based on random sampling. The second contribution is an optimization-based framework for automatic generation of motion primitives for lattice-based motion planners. Given a family of systems, the user only needs to specify which principle types of motions that are relevant for the considered system family. Based on the selected principle motions and a selected system instance, the framework computes a library of motion primitives by simultaneously optimizing the motions and the terminal states. The final contribution of this thesis is a motion planning framework that combines the strengths of sampling-based planners with direct optimal control in a novel way. The sampling-based planner is applied to the problem in a first step using a discretized search space, where the system dynamics and objective function are chosen to coincide with those used in a second step based on optimal control. This combination ensures that the sampling-based motion planner provides a feasible motion plan which is highly suitable as warm-start to the optimal control step. Furthermore, the second step is modified such that it also can be applied in a receding-horizon fashion, where the proposed combination of methods is used to provide theoretical guarantees in terms of recursive feasibility, worst-case objective function value and convergence to the terminal state. The proposed motion planning framework is successfully applied to several problems in challenging unstructured environments for tractor-trailer vehicles. The framework is also applied and tailored for maritime navigation for vessels in archipelagos and harbors, where it is able to compute energy-efficient trajectories which complies with the international regulations for preventing collisions at sea.

On motion planning and control for truck and trailer systems
On motion planning and control for truck and trailer systems

Author: Oskar Ljungqvist

Publisher: Linköping University Electronic Press

Published: 2019-01-22

Total Pages: 98

ISBN-13: 9176851303

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During the last decades, improved sensor and hardware technologies as well as new methods and algorithms have made self-driving vehicles a realistic possibility in the near future. Thanks to this technology enhancement, many leading automotive and technology companies have turned their attention towards developing advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) and self-driving vehicles. Autonomous vehicles are expected to have their first big impact in closed areas, such as mines, harbors and loading/offloading sites. In such areas, the legal requirements are less restrictive and the surrounding environment is more controlled and predictable compared to urban areas. Expected positive outcomes include increased productivity and safety, reduced emissions and the possibility to relieve the human from performing complex or dangerous tasks. Within these sites, different truck and trailer systems are used to transport materials. These systems are composed of several interconnected modules, and are thus large and highly unstable while reversing. This thesis addresses the problem of designing efficient motion planning and feedback control frameworks for such systems. First, a cascade controller for a reversing truck with a dolly-steered trailer is presented. The unstable modes of the system is stabilized around circular equilibrium configurations using a gain-scheduled linear quadratic (LQ) controller together with a higher-level pure pursuit controller to enable path following of piecewise linear reference paths. The cascade controller is then used within a rapidly-exploring random tree (RRT) framework and the complete motion planning and control framework is demonstrated on a small-scale test vehicle. Second, a path following controller for a reversing truck with a dolly-steered trailer is proposed for the case when the obtained motion plan is kinematically feasible. The control errors of the system are modeled in terms of their deviation from the nominal path and a stabilizing LQ controller with feedforward action is designed based on the linearization of the control error model. Stability of the closed-loop system is proven by combining global optimization, theory from linear differential inclusions and linear matrix inequality techniques. Third, a systematic framework is presented for analyzing stability of the closed-loop system consisting of a controlled vehicle and a feedback controller, executing a motion plan computed by a lattice planner. When this motion planner is considered, it is shown that the closed-loop system can be modeled as a nonlinear hybrid system. Based on this, a novel method is presented for analyzing the behavior of the tracking error, how to design the feedback controller and how to potentially impose constraints on the motion planner in order to guarantee that the tracking error is bounded and decays towards zero. Fourth, a complete motion planning and control solution for a truck with a dolly-steered trailer is presented. A lattice-based motion planner is proposed, where a novel parametrization of the vehicle’s state-space is proposed to improve online planning time. A time-symmetry result is established that enhance the numerical stability of the numerical optimal control solver used for generating the motion primitives. Moreover, a nonlinear observer for state estimation is developed which only utilizes information from sensors that are mounted on the truck, making the system independent of additional trailer sensors. The proposed framework is implemented on a full-scale truck with a dolly-steered trailer and results from a series of field experiments are presented.

Optimization of Motion Planning and Control for Automatic Machines, Robots and Multibody Systems
Optimization of Motion Planning and Control for Automatic Machines, Robots and Multibody Systems

Author: Paolo Boscariol

Publisher:

Published: 2020-09-11

Total Pages: 266

ISBN-13: 9783039430604

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The optimization of motion and trajectory planning is an effective and usually costless approach to improving the performance of robots, mechatronic systems, automatic machines and multibody systems. Indeed, wise planning increases precision and machine productivity, while reducing vibrations, motion time, actuation effort and energy consumption. On the other hand, the availability of optimized methods for motion planning allows for a cheaper and lighter system construction. The issue of motion planning is also tightly linked with the synthesis of high-performance feedback and feedforward control schemes, which can either enhance the effectiveness of motion planning or compensate for its gaps. To collect and disseminate a meaningful collection of these applications, this book proposes 15 novel research studies that cover different sub-areas, in the framework of motion planning and control.

Motion planning and feedback control techniques with applications to long tractor-trailer vehicles
Motion planning and feedback control techniques with applications to long tractor-trailer vehicles

Author: Oskar Ljungqvist

Publisher: Linköping University Electronic Press

Published: 2020-04-20

Total Pages: 119

ISBN-13: 9179298583

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During the last decades, improved sensor and hardware technologies as well as new methods and algorithms have made self-driving vehicles a realistic possibility in the near future. At the same time, there has been a growing demand within the transportation sector to increase efficiency and to reduce the environmental impact related to transportation of people and goods. Therefore, many leading automotive and technology companies have turned their attention towards developing advanced driver assistance systems and self-driving vehicles. Autonomous vehicles are expected to have their first big impact in closed environments, such as mines, harbors, loading and offloading sites. In such areas, the legal requirements are less restrictive and the surrounding environment is more controlled and predictable compared to urban areas. Expected positive outcomes include increased productivity and safety, reduced emissions and the possibility to relieve the human from performing complex or dangerous tasks. Within these sites, tractor-trailer vehicles are frequently used for transportation. These vehicles are composed of several interconnected vehicle segments, and are therefore large, complex and unstable while reversing. This thesis addresses the problem of designing efficient motion planning and feedback control techniques for such systems. The contributions of this thesis are within the area of motion planning and feedback control for long tractor-trailer combinations operating at low-speeds in closed and unstructured environments. It includes development of motion planning and feedback control frameworks, structured design tools for guaranteeing closed-loop stability and experimental validation of the proposed solutions through simulations, lab and field experiments. Even though the primary application in this work is tractor-trailer vehicles, many of the proposed approaches can with some adjustments also be used for other systems, such as drones and ships. The developed sampling-based motion planning algorithms are based upon the probabilistic closed-loop rapidly exploring random tree (CL-RRT) algorithm and the deterministic lattice-based motion planning algorithm. It is also proposed to use numerical optimal control offline for precomputing libraries of optimized maneuvers as well as during online planning in the form of a warm-started optimization step. To follow the motion plan, several predictive path-following control approaches are proposed with different computational complexity and performance. Common for these approaches are that they use a path-following error model of the vehicle for future predictions and are tailored to operate in series with a motion planner that computes feasible paths. The design strategies for the path-following approaches include linear quadratic (LQ) control and several advanced model predictive control (MPC) techniques to account for physical and sensing limitations. To strengthen the practical value of the developed techniques, several of the proposed approaches have been implemented and successfully demonstrated in field experiments on a full-scale test platform. To estimate the vehicle states needed for control, a novel nonlinear observer is evaluated on the full-scale test vehicle. It is designed to only utilize information from sensors that are mounted on the tractor, making the system independent of any sensor mounted on the trailer. Under de senaste årtiondena har utvecklingen av sensor- och hårdvaruteknik gått i en snabb takt, samtidigt som nya metoder och algoritmer har introducerats. Samtidigt ställs det stora krav på transportsektorn att öka effektiviteten och minska miljöpåverkan vid transporter av både människor och varor. Som en följd av detta har många ledande fordonstillverkare och teknikföretag börjat satsat på att utveckla avancerade förarstödsystem och självkörande fordon. Även forskningen inom autonoma fordon har under de senaste årtiondena kraftig ökat då en rad tekniska problem återstår att lösas. Förarlösa fordon förväntas få sitt första stora genombrott i slutna miljöer, såsom gruvor, hamnar, lastnings- och lossningsplatser. I sådana områden är lagstiftningen mindre hård jämfört med stadsområden och omgivningen är mer kontrollerad och förutsägbar. Några av de förväntade positiva effekterna är ökad produktivitet och säkerhet, minskade utsläpp och möjligheten att avlasta människor från att utföra svåra eller farliga uppgifter. Inom dessa platser används ofta lastbilar med olika släpvagnskombinationer för att transportera material. En sådan fordonskombination är uppbyggd av flera ihopkopplade moduler och är således utmanande att backa då systemet är instabilt. Detta gör det svårt att utforma ramverk för att styra sådana system vid exempelvis autonom backning. Självkörande fordon är mycket komplexa system som består av en rad olika komponenter vilka är designade för att lösa separata delproblem. Två viktiga komponenter i ett självkörande fordon är dels rörelseplaneraren som har i uppgift att planera hur fordonet ska röra sig för att på ett säkert sätt nå ett överordnat mål, och dels den banföljande regulatorn vars uppgift är att se till att den planerade manövern faktiskt utförs i praktiken trots störningar och modellfel. I denna avhandling presenteras flera olika algoritmer för att planera och utföra komplexa manövrar för lastbilar med olika typer av släpvagnskombinationer. De presenterade algoritmerna är avsedda att användas som avancerade förarstödsystem eller som komponenter i ett helt autonomt system. Även om den primära applikationen i denna avhandling är lastbilar med släp, kan många av de förslagna algoritmerna även användas för en rad andra system, så som drönare och båtar. Experimentell validering är viktigt för att motivera att en föreslagen algoritm är användbar i praktiken. I denna avhandling har flera av de föreslagna planerings- och reglerstrategierna implementerats på en småskalig testplattform och utvärderats i en kontrollerad labbmiljö. Utöver detta har även flera av de föreslagna ramverken implementerats och utvärderats i fältexperiment på en fullskalig test-plattform som har utvecklats i samarbete med Scania CV. Här utvärderas även en ny metod för att skatta släpvagnens beteende genom att endast utnyttja information från sensorer monterade på lastbilen, vilket gör det föreslagna ramverket oberoende av sensorer monterade på släpvagnen.

Planning Algorithms
Planning Algorithms

Author: Steven M. LaValle

Publisher: Cambridge University Press

Published: 2006-05-29

Total Pages: 844

ISBN-13: 9780521862059

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Planning algorithms are impacting technical disciplines and industries around the world, including robotics, computer-aided design, manufacturing, computer graphics, aerospace applications, drug design, and protein folding. Written for computer scientists and engineers with interests in artificial intelligence, robotics, or control theory, this is the only book on this topic that tightly integrates a vast body of literature from several fields into a coherent source for teaching and reference in a wide variety of applications. Difficult mathematical material is explained through hundreds of examples and illustrations.

Control, Models and Industrial Manipulators
Control, Models and Industrial Manipulators

Author: Erik Hedberg

Publisher: Linköping University Electronic Press

Published: 2020-11-23

Total Pages: 64

ISBN-13: 9179297404

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The two topics at the heart of this thesis are how to improve control of industrial manipulators and how to reason about the role of models in automatic control. On industrial manipulators, two case studies are presented. The first investigates estimation with inertial sensors, and the second compares control by feedback linearization to control based on gain-scheduling. The contributions on the second topic illustrate the close connection between control and estimation in different ways. A conceptual model of control is introduced, which can be used to emphasize the role of models as well as the human aspect of control engineering. Some observations are made regarding block-diagram reformulations that illustrate the relation between models, control and inversion. Finally, a suggestion for how the internal model principle, internal model control, disturbance observers and Youla-Kucera parametrization can be introduced in a unified way is presented.

Decentralized Estimation Using Conservative Information Extraction
Decentralized Estimation Using Conservative Information Extraction

Author: Robin Forsling

Publisher: Linköping University Electronic Press

Published: 2020-12-17

Total Pages: 110

ISBN-13: 9179297242

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Sensor networks consist of sensors (e.g., radar and cameras) and processing units (e.g., estimators), where in the former information extraction occurs and in the latter estimates are formed. In decentralized estimation information extracted by sensors has been pre-processed at an intermediate processing unit prior to arriving at an estimator. Pre-processing of information allows for the complexity of large systems and systems-of-systems to be significantly reduced, and also makes the sensor network robust and flexible. One of the main disadvantages of pre-processing information is that information becomes correlated. These correlations, if not handled carefully, potentially lead to underestimated uncertainties about the calculated estimates. In conservative estimation the unknown correlations are handled by ensuring that the uncertainty about an estimate is not underestimated. If this is ensured the estimate is said to be conservative. Neglecting correlations means information is double counted which in worst case implies diverging estimates with fatal consequences. While ensuring conservative estimates is the main goal, it is desirable for a conservative estimator, as for any estimator, to provide an error covariance which is as small as possible. Application areas where conservative estimation is relevant are setups where multiple agents cooperate to accomplish a common objective, e.g., target tracking, surveillance and air policing. The first part of this thesis deals with theoretical matters where the conservative linear unbiased estimation problem is formalized. This part proposes an extension of classical linear estimation theory to the conservative estimation problem. The conservative linear unbiased estimator (CLUE) is suggested as a robust and practical alternative for estimation problems where the correlations are unknown. Optimality criteria for the CLUE are provided and further investigated. It is shown that finding an optimal CLUE is more complicated than finding an optimal linear unbiased estimator in the classical version of the problem. To simplify the problem, a CLUE that is optimal under certain restrictions will also be investigated. The latter is named restricted best CLUE. An important result is a theorem that gives a closed form solution to a restricted best CLUE. Furthermore, several conservative estimation methods are described followed by an analysis of their properties. The methods are shown to be conservative and optimal under different assumptions about the underlying correlations. The second part of the thesis focuses on practical aspects of the conservative approach to decentralized estimation in configurations where the communication channel is constrained. The diagonal covariance approximation is proposed as a data reduction technique that complies with the communication constraints and if handled correctly can be shown to preserve conservative estimates. Several information selection methods are derived that can reduce the amount of data being transmitted in the communication channel. Using the information selection methods it is possible to decide what information other actors of the sensor network find useful.

Timing-Based Localization using Multipath Information
Timing-Based Localization using Multipath Information

Author: Andreas Bergström

Publisher: Linköping University Electronic Press

Published: 2020-01-09

Total Pages: 140

ISBN-13: 9179299172

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The measurements of radio signals are commonly used for localization purposes where the goal is to determine the spatial position of one or multiple objects. In realistic scenarios, any transmitted radio signal will be affected by the environment through reflections, diffraction at edges and corners etc. This causes a phenomenon known as multipath propagation, by which multiple instances of the transmitted signal having traversed different paths are heard by the receiver. These are known as Multi-Path Components (MPCs). The direct path (DP) between transmitter and receiver may also be occluded, causing what is referred to as non-Line-of-Sight (non-LOS) conditions. As a consequence of these effects, the estimated position of the object(s) may often be erroneous. This thesis focuses on how to achieve better localization accuracy by accounting for the above-mentioned multipath propagation and non-LOS effects. It is proposed how to mitigate these in the context of positioning based on estimation of the DP between transmitter and receiver. It is also proposed how to constructively utilize the additional information about the environment which they implicitly provide. This is all done in a framework wherein a given signal model and a map of the surroundings are used to build a mathematical model of the radio environment, from which the resulting MPCs are estimated. First, methods to mitigate the adverse effects of multipath propagation and non-LOS conditions for positioning based on estimation of the DP between transmitter and receiver are presented. This is initially done by using robust statistical measurement error models based on aggregated error statistics, where significant improvements are obtained without the need to provide detailed received signal information. The gains are seen to be even larger with up-to-date real-time information based on the estimated MPCs. Second, the association of the estimated MPCs with the signal paths predicted by the environmental model is addressed. This leads to a combinatorial problem which is approached with tools from multi-target tracking theory. A rich radio environment in terms of many MPCs gives better localization accuracy but causes the problem size to grow large—something which can be remedied by excluding less probable paths. Simulations indicate that in such environments, the single best association hypothesis may be a reasonable approximation which avoids the calculation of a vast number of possible hypotheses. Accounting for erroneous measurements is crucial but may have drawbacks if no such are occurring. Finally, theoretical localization performance bounds when utilizing all or a subset of the available MPCs are derived. A rich radio environment allows for good positioning accuracy using only a few transmitters/receivers, assuming that these are used in the localization process. In contrast, in a less rich environment where basically only the DP/LOS components are measurable, more transmitters/receivers and/or the combination of downlink and uplink measurements are required to achieve the same accuracy. The receiver’s capability of distinguishing between multiple MPCs arriving approximately at the same time also affects the localization accuracy.

Uncertainties in Neural Networks
Uncertainties in Neural Networks

Author: Magnus Malmström

Publisher: Linköping University Electronic Press

Published: 2021-04-06

Total Pages: 103

ISBN-13: 9179296807

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In science, technology, and engineering, creating models of the environment to predict future events has always been a key component. The models could be everything from how the friction of a tire depends on the wheels slip to how a pathogen is spread throughout society. As more data becomes available, the use of data-driven black-box models becomes more attractive. In many areas they have shown promising results, but for them to be used widespread in safety-critical applications such as autonomous driving some notion of uncertainty in the prediction is required. An example of such a black-box model is neural networks (NNs). This thesis aims to increase the usefulness of NNs by presenting an method where uncertainty in the prediction is obtained by linearization of the model. In system identification and sensor fusion, under the condition that the model structure is identifiable, this is a commonly used approach to get uncertainty in the prediction from a nonlinear model. If the model structure is not identifiable, such as for NNs, the ambiguities that cause this have to be taken care of in order to make the approach applicable. This is handled in the first part of the thesis where NNs are analyzed from a system identification perspective, and sources of uncertainty are discussed. Another problem with data-driven black-box models is that it is difficult to know how flexible the model needs to be in order to correctly model the true system. One solution to this problem is to use a model that is more flexible than necessary to make sure that the model is flexible enough. But how would that extra flexibility affect the uncertainty in the prediction? This is handled in the later part of the thesis where it is shown that the uncertainty in the prediction is bounded from below by the uncertainty in the prediction of the model with lowest flexibility required for representing true system accurately. In the literature, many other approaches to handle the uncertainty in predictions by NNs have been suggested, of which some are summarized in this work. Furthermore, a simulation and an experimental studies inspired by autonomous driving are conducted. In the simulation study, different sources of uncertainty are investigated, as well as how large the uncertainty in the predictions by NNs are in areas without training data. In the experimental study, the uncertainty in predictions done by different models are investigated. The results show that, compared to existing methods, the linearization method produces similar results for the uncertainty in predictions by NNs. An introduction video is available at https://youtu.be/O4ZcUTGXFN0 Inom forskning och utveckling har det har alltid varit centralt att skapa modeller av verkligheten. Dessa modeller har bland annat använts till att förutspå framtida händelser eller för att styra ett system till att bete sig som man önskar. Modellerna kan beskriva allt från hur friktionen hos ett bildäck påverkas av hur mycket hjulen glider till hur ett virus kan sprida sig i ett samhälle. I takt med att mer och mer data blir tillgänglig ökar potentialen för datadrivna black-box modeller. Dessa modeller är universella approximationer vilka ska kunna representera vilken godtycklig funktion som helst. Användningen av dessa modeller har haft stor framgång inom många områden men för att verkligen kunna etablera sig inom säkerhetskritiska områden såsom självkörande farkoster behövs en förståelse för osäkerhet i prediktionen från modellen. Neuronnät är ett exempel på en sådan black-box modell. I denna avhandling kommer olika sätt att tillförskaffa sig kunskap om osäkerhet i prediktionen av neuronnät undersökas. En metod som bygger på linjärisering av modellen för att tillförskaffa sig osäkerhet i prediktionen av neuronnätet kommer att presenteras. Denna metod är välbeprövad inom systemidentifiering och sensorfusion under antagandet att modellen är identifierbar. För modeller såsom neuronnät, vilka inte är identifierbara behövs det att det tas hänsyn till tvetydigheterna i modellen. En annan utmaning med datadrivna black-box modeller, är att veta om den valda modellmängden är tillräckligt generell för att kunna modellera det sanna systemet. En lösning på detta problem är att använda modeller som har mer flexibilitet än vad som behövs, det vill säga en överparameteriserad modell. Men hur påverkas osäkerheten i prediktionen av detta? Detta är något som undersöks i denna avhandling, vilken visar att osäkerheten i den överparameteriserad modellen kommer att vara begränsad underifrån av modellen med minst flexibilitet som ändå är tillräckligt generell för att modellera det sanna systemet. Som avslutning kommer dessa resultat att demonstreras i både en simuleringsstudie och en experimentstudie inspirerad av självkörande farkoster. Fokuset i simuleringsstudien är hur osäkerheten hos modellen är i områden med och utan tillgång till träningsdata medan experimentstudien fokuserar på jämförelsen mellan osäkerheten i olika typer av modeller.Resultaten från dessa studier visar att metoden som bygger på linjärisering ger liknande resultat för skattningen av osäkerheten i prediktionen av neuronnät, jämfört med existerande metoder.