Bank Profitability and Risk-Taking
Bank Profitability and Risk-Taking

Author: Natalya Martynova

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2015-11-25

Total Pages: 44

ISBN-13: 1513565818

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Traditional theory suggests that more profitable banks should have lower risk-taking incentives. Then why did many profitable banks choose to invest in untested financial instruments before the crisis, realizing significant losses? We attempt to reconcile theory and evidence. In our setup, banks are endowed with a fixed core business. They take risk by levering up to engage in risky ‘side activities’(such as market-based investments) alongside the core business. A more profitable core business allows a bank to borrow more and take side risks on a larger scale, offsetting lower incentives to take risk of given size. Consequently, more profitable banks may have higher risk-taking incentives. The framework is consistent with cross-sectional patterns of bank risk-taking in the run up to the recent financial crisis.

Negative Interest Rate Policy (NIRP)
Negative Interest Rate Policy (NIRP)

Author: Andreas Jobst

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2016-08-10

Total Pages: 48

ISBN-13: 1475524471

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More than two years ago the European Central Bank (ECB) adopted a negative interest rate policy (NIRP) to achieve its price stability objective. Negative interest rates have so far supported easier financial conditions and contributed to a modest expansion in credit, demonstrating that the zero lower bound is less binding than previously thought. However, interest rate cuts also weigh on bank profitability. Substantial rate cuts may at some point outweigh the benefits from higher asset values and stronger aggregate demand. Further monetary accommodation may need to rely more on credit easing and an expansion of the ECB’s balance sheet rather than substantial additional reductions in the policy rate.

Negative Interest Rates
Negative Interest Rates

Author: Luís Brandão Marques

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2021-03-03

Total Pages: 84

ISBN-13: 1513570080

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This paper focuses on negative interest rate policies and covers a broad range of its effects, with a detailed discussion of findings in the academic literature and of broader country experiences.

The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly
The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly

Author: Florian Urbschat

Publisher:

Published: 2018

Total Pages:

ISBN-13:

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The recent negative interest rate policy (NIRP) and quantitative easing (QE) programme by the ECB have raised concerns about the pass-through of monetary policy. On the one hand, negative rates could lead to declining bank profitability making an expansionary monetary policy contractionary. Also, if interest rates are too low for too long banks could be induced to take too much risky credit. On the other hand, several economists argue that there is nothing special about negative interest rates per se. This paper uses a large micro level data set of the German bank universe to examine how banks behave in this uncharted territory. The evidence found suggests that bank's business model, i.e. the share of overnight deposits, plays a crucial role. While some banks may benefit in the short run via for instance reduced refinancing costs or lower loan loss provisions, many banks with high deposit ratios face lower net interest income and lower credit growth rates. If continued for too long QE and NIRP erode bank profits for most banks eventually.

Pushed Past the Limit? How Japanese Banks Reacted to Negative Interest Rates
Pushed Past the Limit? How Japanese Banks Reacted to Negative Interest Rates

Author: Mr.Gee Hee Hong

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2018-06-13

Total Pages: 50

ISBN-13: 148436161X

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In this paper, we investigate how negative interest rate policy (NIRP) introduced in January 2016 by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) affected Japanese banks' lending and risk taking behavior. The BoJ's announcement was an unexpected surprise to the market and was followed by a sharp drop in equity prices of Japanese financial firms. We exploit the cross-sectional variation in the change of share prices on the day of the announcement to measure banks' differential exposure to NIRP. We show that more exposed banks increased their credit and took on more risk compared to banks that were less exposed to negative rates.

Bank Leverage and Monetary Policy's Risk-Taking Channel
Bank Leverage and Monetary Policy's Risk-Taking Channel

Author: Mr.Giovanni Dell'Ariccia

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2013-06-06

Total Pages: 41

ISBN-13: 1484381130

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We present evidence of a risk-taking channel of monetary policy for the U.S. banking system. We use confidential data on the internal ratings of U.S. banks on loans to businesses over the period 1997 to 2011 from the Federal Reserve’s survey of terms of business lending. We find that ex-ante risk taking by banks (as measured by the risk rating of the bank’s loan portfolio) is negatively associated with increases in short-term policy interest rates. This relationship is less pronounced for banks with relatively low capital or during periods when banks’ capital erodes, such as episodes of financial and economic distress. These results contribute to the ongoing debate on the role of monetary policy in financial stability and suggest that monetary policy has a bearing on the riskiness of banks and financial stability more generally.

Pushed Past the Limit? How Japanese Banks Reacted to Negative Interest Rates
Pushed Past the Limit? How Japanese Banks Reacted to Negative Interest Rates

Author: Mr.Gee Hee Hong

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2018-06-13

Total Pages: 50

ISBN-13: 1484363167

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In this paper, we investigate how negative interest rate policy (NIRP) introduced in January 2016 by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) affected Japanese banks' lending and risk taking behavior. The BoJ's announcement was an unexpected surprise to the market and was followed by a sharp drop in equity prices of Japanese financial firms. We exploit the cross-sectional variation in the change of share prices on the day of the announcement to measure banks' differential exposure to NIRP. We show that more exposed banks increased their credit and took on more risk compared to banks that were less exposed to negative rates.

Bank Profitability and Financial Stability
Bank Profitability and Financial Stability

Author: Ms.TengTeng Xu

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2019-01-11

Total Pages: 54

ISBN-13: 1484393805

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We analyze how bank profitability impacts financial stability from both theoretical and empirical perspectives. We first develop a theoretical model of the relationship between bank profitability and financial stability by exploring the role of non-interest income and retail-oriented business models. We then conduct panel regression analysis to examine the empirical determinants of bank risks and profitability, and how the level and the source of bank profitability affect risks for 431 publicly traded banks (U.S., advanced Europe, and GSIBs) from 2004 to 2017. Results reveal that profitability is negatively associated with both a bank’s contribution to systemic risk and its idiosyncratic risk, and an over-reliance on non-interest income, wholesale funding and leverage is associated with higher risks. Low competition is associated with low idiosyncratic risk but a high contribution to systemic risk. Lastly, the problem loans ratio and the cost-to-income ratio are found to be key factors that influence bank profitability. The paper’s findings suggest that policy makers should strive to better understand the source of bank profitability, especially where there is an over-reliance on market-based non-interest income, leverage, and wholesale funding.