Natural Disasters and Scarring Effects
Natural Disasters and Scarring Effects

Author: Weicheng Lian

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2022-12-16

Total Pages: 30

ISBN-13:

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This paper uses a novel empirical approach, following the literature on hysteresis, to explore medium-term scarring of natural disasters for countries vulnerable to climate change. By quantifying the dynamic effects of natural disasters on real GDP per capita for a large number of episodes using a synthetic control approach (SCA) and focusing on severe shocks, we demonstrate that a persistently large deviation of real GDP per capita from the counterfacutal trend exists five years after a severe shock in many countries. The findings highlight the importance and urgency of building ex-ante resilience to avoid scarring effects for countries prone to natural disasters, such as those in the Caribbean region.

Why Some Don’t Belong—The Distributional Effects of Natural Disasters
Why Some Don’t Belong—The Distributional Effects of Natural Disasters

Author: Mrs. Nina Budina

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2023-01-06

Total Pages: 49

ISBN-13:

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When and how do natural disasters worsen within-country income inequality? We highlight the channels through which natural disasters may have distributional effects and empirically analyze when and which type of disasters affect inequality in advanced economies (AEs) and in emerging and developing economies (EMDEs). We find that in AEs inequality increases after severe disasters. We also find that inequality increases if severe disasters are associated with growth slowdowns or there are multiple disasters in a year in AEs and in EMDEs. Descriptive evidence for the US also suggests that adverse labor market effects of disasters are likely to fall on vulnerable groups.

Preparing for the Psychological Consequences of Terrorism
Preparing for the Psychological Consequences of Terrorism

Author: Institute of Medicine

Publisher: National Academies Press

Published: 2003-08-26

Total Pages: 184

ISBN-13: 0309167922

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The Oklahoma City bombing, intentional crashing of airliners on September 11, 2001, and anthrax attacks in the fall of 2001 have made Americans acutely aware of the impacts of terrorism. These events and continued threats of terrorism have raised questions about the impact on the psychological health of the nation and how well the public health infrastructure is able to meet the psychological needs that will likely result. Preparing for the Psychological Consequences of Terrorism highlights some of the critical issues in responding to the psychological needs that result from terrorism and provides possible options for intervention. The committee offers an example for a public health strategy that may serve as a base from which plans to prevent and respond to the psychological consequences of a variety of terrorism events can be formulated. The report includes recommendations for the training and education of service providers, ensuring appropriate guidelines for the protection of service providers, and developing public health surveillance for preevent, event, and postevent factors related to psychological consequences.

Tree Rings and Natural Hazards
Tree Rings and Natural Hazards

Author: Markus Stoffel

Publisher: Springer

Published: 2012-06-28

Total Pages: 0

ISBN-13: 9789400732179

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Dendrogeomorphology Beginnings and Futures: A Personal Reminiscence My early forays into dendrogeomorphology occurred long before I even knew what that word meant. I was working as a young geoscientist in the 1960s and early 1970s on a problem with slope movements and deformed vegetation. At the same time, unknown to me, Jouko Alestalo in Finland was doing something similar. Both of us had seen that trees which produced annual growth rings were reacting to g- morphic processes resulting in changes in their internal and external growth p- terns. Dendroclimatology was an already well established field, but the reactions of trees to other environmental processes were far less well understood in the 1960s. It was Alestalo (1971) who first used the term, dendrogeomorphology. In the early 1970s, I could see that active slope-movement processes were affecting the growth of trees in diverse ways at certain localities. I wanted to learn more about those processes and try to extract a long-term chronology of movement from the highly diverse ring patterns.

Fiscal Impacts of Climate Disasters in Emerging Markets and Developing Economies
Fiscal Impacts of Climate Disasters in Emerging Markets and Developing Economies

Author: Habtamu Fuje

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2023-12-15

Total Pages: 34

ISBN-13:

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Climate-induced disasters are causing increasingly frequent and intense economic damages, disproportionally affecting emerging markets and developing economies (EMDEs) relative to advanced economies (AEs). However, the impact of various types of climate shocks on output growth and fiscal positions of EMDEs is not fully understood. This research analyzes the macro-fiscal implications of three common climate disasters (droughts, storms, and floods) using a combination of macroeconomic data and comprehensive ground and satellite disaster indicators spanning the past three decades across 164 countries. Across EMDEs, where agriculture tends to be the principal sector, a drought reduces output growth by 1.4 percentage points and government revenue by 0.7 percent of GDP as it erodes the tax bases of affected countries. Meanwhile, likely reflecting limited fiscal space to respond to a disaster, fiscal expenditure does not increase following a drought. A storm drags output growth in EMDEs, albeit with negligible impact on fiscal revenue, but government expenditure increases due to reconstruction and clean-up efforts. We find only limited impact of localized floods on growth and fiscal positions. In contrast, AEs tend to experience negligible growth and fiscal consequences from climate-induced shocks. As these shocks have much more detrimental effects in EMDEs, international support for disaster preparedness and climate change adaptation play a crucial role for these countries to confront climate change.

Republic of South Sudan
Republic of South Sudan

Author: International Monetary Fund. African Dept.

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2023-03-09

Total Pages: 100

ISBN-13:

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Dire and deteriorating humanitarian situation. About two-thirds of South Sudan’s population is experiencing severe food insecurity, the highest level since independence. This is a result of multiple compounding factors, including severe multi-year floods due to climate shocks, inter-communal violence in parts of the country, and the impact of Russia’s war in Ukraine that is contributing to high global food and fuel prices.

Antigua and Barbuda
Antigua and Barbuda

Author: International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2023-05-30

Total Pages: 85

ISBN-13:

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Antigua and Barbuda’s economy is on a gradual recovery path, following a sharp contraction in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Higher food and fuel prices are adding to inflation, eroding real incomes, and exacerbating fiscal and external imbalances. The economy is projected to grow by 6 percent in 2022 supported by tourism and construction activity, but output will return to pre-pandemic levels only by 2025 due to scarring effects of the pandemic. Inflation is expected to accelerate to 81⁄2 percent in 2022, reflecting the pass-through of global prices to the domestic economy. Continued fiscal consolidation efforts and the growth recovery are bringing down the primary deficit and debt-to-GDP ratio, but gross financing needs are high and arrears continue to be accrued. The financial system has adequate capital and liquidity buffers, with stable NPLs so far, but private sector credit growth is weak. Further commodity price shocks, a sharper-than-expected slowdown in key trading partners, a resurgence of COVID, tighter global financial conditions, lower citizenship-byinvestment revenues, and the ever-present threat of natural disasters all represent material downside risks.

Philippines: 2021 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Philippines
Philippines: 2021 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Philippines

Author: International Monetary

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2021-08-06

Total Pages: 80

ISBN-13: 1513586513

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The economy is recovering after a major, pandemic-induced economic downturn. The authorities have deployed a comprehensive set of policy responses that have helped to mitigate the socioeconomic impact and maintain financial stability. The economic recovery slowed in the first half of 2021 due to a second wave of COVID-19 infections. Vaccination has started and is poised to accelerate from midyear.

After-Effects of the COVID-19 Pandemic: Prospects for Medium-Term Economic Damage
After-Effects of the COVID-19 Pandemic: Prospects for Medium-Term Economic Damage

Author: Mr. Philip Barrett

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2021-07-30

Total Pages: 23

ISBN-13: 1513587900

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The COVID-19 pandemic has led to a severe global recession with differential impacts within and across countries. This paper examines the possible persistent effects (scarring) of the pandemic on the economy and the channels through which they may occur. History suggests that deep recessions often leave long-lived scars, particularly to productivity. Importantly, financial instabilities—typically associated with worse scarring—have been largely avoided in the current crisis so far. While medium-term output losses are anticipated to be lower than after the global financial crisis, they are still expected to be substantial. The degree of expected scarring varies across countries, depending on the structure of economies and the size of the policy response. Emerging market and developing economies are expected to suffer more scarring than advanced economies.

Thailand
Thailand

Author: International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2022-09-16

Total Pages: 93

ISBN-13:

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Thailand’s economy is recovering from an unprecedented crisis emanating from multiple waves of the COVID-19 pandemic. Ample policy space has allowed a swift and bold policy response and vaccine rollout has accelerated. However, the recovery is weak and uneven across sectors, with inflation rapidly rising driven by energy prices. Downside risks dominate the outlook, sharpening policy tradeoffs. The pandemic has also brought to the fore the urgency for Thailand to identify new growth drivers to reverse the pre-pandemic trend of declining productivity growth and meet the challenges of the post-pandemic world.