Taking the topics of a quantitative methodology course and illustrating them through Monte Carlo simulation, this book examines abstract principles, such as bias, efficiency, and measures of uncertainty in an intuitive, visual way. Instead of thinking in the abstract about what would happen to a particular estimator "in repeated samples," the book uses simulation to actually create those repeated samples and summarize the results. The book includes basic examples appropriate for readers learning the material for the first time, as well as more advanced examples that a researcher might use to evaluate an estimator he or she was using in an actual research project. The book also covers a wide range of topics related to Monte Carlo simulation, such as resampling methods, simulations of substantive theory, simulation of quantities of interest (QI) from model results, and cross-validation. Complete R code from all examples is provided so readers can replicate every analysis presented using R.
Essentials of Monte Carlo Simulation focuses on the fundamentals of Monte Carlo methods using basic computer simulation techniques. The theories presented in this text deal with systems that are too complex to solve analytically. As a result, readers are given a system of interest and constructs using computer code, as well as algorithmic models to emulate how the system works internally. After the models are run several times, in a random sample way, the data for each output variable(s) of interest is analyzed by ordinary statistical methods. This book features 11 comprehensive chapters, and discusses such key topics as random number generators, multivariate random variates, and continuous random variates. Over 100 numerical examples are presented as part of the appendix to illustrate useful real world applications. The text also contains an easy to read presentation with minimal use of difficult mathematical concepts. Very little has been published in the area of computer Monte Carlo simulation methods, and this book will appeal to students and researchers in the fields of Mathematics and Statistics.
Aimed at researchers across the social sciences, this book explains the logic behind the Monte Carlo simulation method and demonstrates its uses for social and behavioural research.
This accessible new edition explores the major topics in Monte Carlo simulation that have arisen over the past 30 years and presents a sound foundation for problem solving Simulation and the Monte Carlo Method, Third Edition reflects the latest developments in the field and presents a fully updated and comprehensive account of the state-of-the-art theory, methods and applications that have emerged in Monte Carlo simulation since the publication of the classic First Edition over more than a quarter of a century ago. While maintaining its accessible and intuitive approach, this revised edition features a wealth of up-to-date information that facilitates a deeper understanding of problem solving across a wide array of subject areas, such as engineering, statistics, computer science, mathematics, and the physical and life sciences. The book begins with a modernized introduction that addresses the basic concepts of probability, Markov processes, and convex optimization. Subsequent chapters discuss the dramatic changes that have occurred in the field of the Monte Carlo method, with coverage of many modern topics including: Markov Chain Monte Carlo, variance reduction techniques such as importance (re-)sampling, and the transform likelihood ratio method, the score function method for sensitivity analysis, the stochastic approximation method and the stochastic counter-part method for Monte Carlo optimization, the cross-entropy method for rare events estimation and combinatorial optimization, and application of Monte Carlo techniques for counting problems. An extensive range of exercises is provided at the end of each chapter, as well as a generous sampling of applied examples. The Third Edition features a new chapter on the highly versatile splitting method, with applications to rare-event estimation, counting, sampling, and optimization. A second new chapter introduces the stochastic enumeration method, which is a new fast sequential Monte Carlo method for tree search. In addition, the Third Edition features new material on: • Random number generation, including multiple-recursive generators and the Mersenne Twister • Simulation of Gaussian processes, Brownian motion, and diffusion processes • Multilevel Monte Carlo method • New enhancements of the cross-entropy (CE) method, including the “improved” CE method, which uses sampling from the zero-variance distribution to find the optimal importance sampling parameters • Over 100 algorithms in modern pseudo code with flow control • Over 25 new exercises Simulation and the Monte Carlo Method, Third Edition is an excellent text for upper-undergraduate and beginning graduate courses in stochastic simulation and Monte Carlo techniques. The book also serves as a valuable reference for professionals who would like to achieve a more formal understanding of the Monte Carlo method. Reuven Y. Rubinstein, DSc, was Professor Emeritus in the Faculty of Industrial Engineering and Management at Technion-Israel Institute of Technology. He served as a consultant at numerous large-scale organizations, such as IBM, Motorola, and NEC. The author of over 100 articles and six books, Dr. Rubinstein was also the inventor of the popular score-function method in simulation analysis and generic cross-entropy methods for combinatorial optimization and counting. Dirk P. Kroese, PhD, is a Professor of Mathematics and Statistics in the School of Mathematics and Physics of The University of Queensland, Australia. He has published over 100 articles and four books in a wide range of areas in applied probability and statistics, including Monte Carlo methods, cross-entropy, randomized algorithms, tele-traffic c theory, reliability, computational statistics, applied probability, and stochastic modeling.
Developed from the author’s course on Monte Carlo simulation at Brown University, Monte Carlo Simulation with Applications to Finance provides a self-contained introduction to Monte Carlo methods in financial engineering. It is suitable for advanced undergraduate and graduate students taking a one-semester course or for practitioners in the financial industry. The author first presents the necessary mathematical tools for simulation, arbitrary free option pricing, and the basic implementation of Monte Carlo schemes. He then describes variance reduction techniques, including control variates, stratification, conditioning, importance sampling, and cross-entropy. The text concludes with stochastic calculus and the simulation of diffusion processes. Only requiring some familiarity with probability and statistics, the book keeps much of the mathematics at an informal level and avoids technical measure-theoretic jargon to provide a practical understanding of the basics. It includes a large number of examples as well as MATLAB® coding exercises that are designed in a progressive manner so that no prior experience with MATLAB is needed.
When learning very formal material one comes to a stage where one thinks one has understood the material. Confronted with a "realiife" problem, the passivity of this understanding sometimes becomes painfully elear. To be able to solve the problem, ideas, methods, etc. need to be ready at hand. They must be mastered (become active knowledge) in order to employ them successfully. Starting from this idea, the leitmotif, or aim, of this book has been to elose this gap as much as possible. How can this be done? The material presented here was born out of a series of lectures at the Summer School held at Figueira da Foz (Portugal) in 1987. The series of lectures was split into two concurrent parts. In one part the "formal material" was presented. Since the background of those attending varied widely, the presentation of the formal material was kept as pedagogic as possible. In the formal part the general ideas behind the Monte Carlo method were developed. The Monte Carlo method has now found widespread appli cation in many branches of science such as physics, chemistry, and biology. Because of this, the scope of the lectures had to be narrowed down. We could not give a complete account and restricted the treatment to the ap plication of the Monte Carlo method to the physics of phase transitions. Here particular emphasis is placed on finite-size effects.
This updated edition deals with the Monte Carlo simulation of complex physical systems encountered in condensed-matter physics, statistical mechanics, and related fields. It contains many applications, examples, and exercises to help the reader. It is an excellent guide for graduate students and researchers who use computer simulations in their research.
Monte Carlo methods have been used for decades in physics, engineering, statistics, and other fields. Monte Carlo Simulation and Finance explains the nuts and bolts of this essential technique used to value derivatives and other securities. Author and educator Don McLeish examines this fundamental process, and discusses important issues, including specialized problems in finance that Monte Carlo and Quasi-Monte Carlo methods can help solve and the different ways Monte Carlo methods can be improved upon. This state-of-the-art book on Monte Carlo simulation methods is ideal for finance professionals and students. Order your copy today.
From the reviews: "Paul Glasserman has written an astonishingly good book that bridges financial engineering and the Monte Carlo method. The book will appeal to graduate students, researchers, and most of all, practicing financial engineers [...] So often, financial engineering texts are very theoretical. This book is not." --Glyn Holton, Contingency Analysis
This highly accessible and innovative text with supporting web site uses Excel (R) to teach the core concepts of econometrics without advanced mathematics. It enables students to use Monte Carlo simulations in order to understand the data generating process and sampling distribution. Intelligent repetition of concrete examples effectively conveys the properties of the ordinary least squares (OLS) estimator and the nature of heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation. Coverage includes omitted variables, binary response models, basic time series, and simultaneous equations. The authors teach students how to construct their own real-world data sets drawn from the internet, which they can analyze with Excel (R) or with other econometric software. The accompanying web site with text support can be found at www.wabash.edu/econometrics.
