This Research Note presents the results from ten rounds of a telephone survey with food vendors conducted in rural and urban zones throughout Myanmar and focuses on the results from the latest round completed in December 2021. The purpose of the survey is to provide data and insights on Myanmar’s food markets to interested stakeholders to foster better understanding of the effects of shocks related to COVID-19 and the ongoing political crisis. In particular, the note explores changes in food prices and their impact on the cost of common and healthy diets.
We assess changes in food prices and purchasing power of casual wage laborers based on large-scale surveys of food vendors (fielded from June 2020 until February 2023) and households in rural and urban areas and in all state/regions of Myanmar. Key findings Over the full period (June 2020 - February 2023), the cost of the healthy diet rose by 72 percent and the common diet by 82 percent. Prices for rice –the major staple– increased by 62 percent between March 2022 and February 2023. The costs of a common and healthy diet increased especially over the year 2022, by 50 and 51 percent respectively between Q1 of 2022 and Q4 of 2022. Diet costs increased more in rural areas compared to urban areas and more in the Dry Zone and coastal areas – which are more affected by conflicts – compared to the national average. The value of daily wages of construction and agricultural wage laborers relative to common and healthy diet costs declined by about 25 and 28 percent over the year 2022. Food costs are outpacing wages, making food increasingly unaffordable for wage earners who are among the most vulnerable household groups in Myanmar, particularly in rural areas. Recommended actions Food should be available at low costs to avoid food insecurity and nutrition problems in the country; assuring a well-functioning agri-food system should therefore be a priority for all stakeholders. Casual wage workers are among the poorest and their situation is worsening. They should therefore be targeted in social safety net programs. It is important to closely monitor food prices and the wages of the poor - they are good proxies for purchasing power and welfare and can be measured at high frequency.
In the decade prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, Myanmar was in the midst of a dietary transition driven by rapid economic growth and urbanization. In this study, we first use national survey data to compare household diets in 2015 to the healthy diet recommendations of food-based dietary guidelines adapted for Myanmar, as well as estimated nutrient consumption relative to recommended intakes. We use these food group and nutrient consumption gaps to estimate a new measure of multidimensional dietary deprivation developed by Pauw et al. (2022), and a novel extension of that index to nutrient deprivation. Both deprivation indices are strongly negatively correlated with total household expenditure. We then use food demand estimation to estimate income and own price elasticities, which reveal strong preferences for animal-sourced foods, but weaker preferences for vegetables and pulses. Expenditure data also point to strong demand for oils/fats – a problem observed throughout developing Asia (Pingali and Abraham 2022) – and for food away from home, which partially explains the rising burden of overweight/obesity in Myanmar. Moreover, since most nutrient-dense foods are income- and price-elastic, estimated income elasticities suggest that recent declines in household income and increases in food prices in Myanmar will result in declining dietary diversity. We show that this is indeed the case utilizing household phone surveys conducted in recent years. We first use a food vendor survey to show that the cost of a healthy diet increased by 61 percent between September 2021 and September 2022. Next, we analyze a rural Dry Zone panel survey implemented 10 times over 2020-2021 and find that maternal and child dietary diversity both declined significantly as Myanmar’s economic situation deteriorated. Then, in a nationally representative phone survey conducted quarterly in 2022 over a period of rapid food inflation, we find further deterioration in diet quality among adults, but no deterioration among children 6-23 months of age, suggesting parents may be trying to insulate their children from the worst effects of the crisis. Finally, we conclude the paper by discussing policy and program options in very difficult political circumstances. Malnutrition is a multidimensional problem requiring multisectoral solutions, but at present the breakdown in the provision of even basic services makes significant progress highly unlikely, and reversing the recent deterioration in dietary quality and nutrition will surely require resolution of Myanmar’s political crisis. In the interim, we discuss three potentially effective types of interventions: (1) rice fortification to reduce micronutrient deficiencies; (2) homestead food production to improve dietary quality in farm households and rural and peri-urban communities; and (3) nutrition-sensitive social protection for vulnerable mothers and young children, with transfers ideally accompanied by nutrition education interventions.
This working paper explores the state of food security and nutrition in Myanmar using 6 rounds of nationally representative household panel data collected from December 2021 to November 2023. Overall, the state of food security and nutrition has deteriorated in Myanmar in 2022-23. More than 3 percent of households were in moderate to severe hunger in September-November 2023. Hunger was highest in Chin (8.7 percent) and Tanintharyi (7.0 percent). Households with a low food consumption score increased from 9.4 percent in December 2021-February 2022 to 15.9 percent in October-December 2022 and remained high at 14.4 percent in September-November 2023. The shares in September-November 2023 were highest in Chin (38.2 percent), Kayah (22.4 percent), and Magway (20 percent). Inadequate diet diversity among adults rose from 20.6 percent to 30.9 percent over December 2021-February 2022 to October-December 2022, with an increase of 5.9 percentage points in the past one year. Women saw a faster decline in diet quality from December-February 2022 to September-November 2023 (12.1 percentage points increase in poor diet quality vs 8.4 percentage points for men). Decreases in diet quality among adults are driven by lower consumption of milk and dairy products as well as Vitamin A rich fruits, meat, fish, and eggs. 34.5 percent of all children aged 6-23 months and nearly a quarter (23.6 percent) of all children aged 6-59 months had inadequate diet quality in the latest round of survey. Regression analysis reveals low income and limited assets to be important risk factors for food security and adequate diet quality. Wage workers and low wage communities are found to be particularly vulnerable. Rising food prices, conflict and physical insecurity increase the likelihood of poor diet quality. Receiving remittances is a source of resilience; remittance-receiving households are less likely to experience hunger or poor dietary diversity at the household, adult, and child level. To avert a full-blown nutrition crisis in Myanmar, effective multisectoral steps are required to protect nutritionally vulnerable populations. Expanded implementation of nutrition- and gender sensitive social protection programs, including maternal and child cash transfers, particularly to vulnerable groups is called for. Further, given the importance of remittances as an effective coping mechanism, supporting migration and the flow of remittances would help to improve the welfare of the Myanmar population.
Ten rounds of the Rural-Urban Food Security Survey (RUFSS) have been conducted between June 2020 and December 2021 to assess the impacts of Myanmar’s economic, political, and health crises on various dimensions of household welfare. RUFSS interviews about 2000 mothers of young children per round from urban Yangon, the rural Dry Zone, and recent migrants from these areas.
International food prices have become increasingly volatile in recent decades, with “global food crises” in 2008, 2011 and most recently in 2022. The 2008 crisis prompted international agencies to ambitiously extend their monitoring of domestic food prices in developing countries to strengthen early warning systems and food and nutrition surveillance. However, food inflation by itself is not sufficient for measuring disposable income or food affordability; for that, one must measure either changes in income or changes in an income proxy. Here we propose the use of a low-cost income proxy that can be monitored at the same high frequency and spatial granularity as food prices: the wages of poor unskilled workers. While not all poor people are unskilled wage earners, changes in the real “reservation wages” of low skilled activities are likely to be highly predictive of changes in disposable income for poorer segments of society (Deaton and Dreze 2002). We demonstrate this by estimating changes in “food wages” – wages deflated food price indices – during well-documented food price crises in Ethiopia (2008, 2011 and 2022), Sri Lanka (2022) and Myanmar (2022). In all these instances, food wages declined by 20-30%, often in the space of a few months. Moreover, in Myanmar we use a household panel survey data to show that the decline in food wages over the course of 2022 closely matches estimate declines in household disposable income and proportional increases in income-based poverty. We argue that the affordability of nutritious food for “all people, at all times” is a critically important dimension of food security, and we advocate for monitoring the wages of the poor as a cheap and accurate means of capturing that dimension.
The fifth round of the Myanmar Household Welfare Survey (MHWS), a nationally and regionally representative phone survey, was implemented between March and June 2023. It follows from four rounds that were carried out quarterly beginning in December 2021. This report discusses the findings from the fifth round related to livelihoods, shocks, asset and income poverty, and coping strategies.
We analyze paddy rice productivity and profitability data for the monsoon season of 2022 from the Myanmar Agriculture Performance Survey (MAPS), fielded in the beginning of 2023. The survey covered plots of 3,076 paddy rice producers, spread across all states/regions of the country. We find that: 1. Paddy rice productivity – tons of paddy produced per unit of cultivated land – at the national level decreased on average by 7.5 percent during the monsoon of 2022 compared to the monsoon of 2021. The lower productivity is mostly explained by adverse weather conditions, with negative impacts of droughts during the monsoon of 2022. Lower input use and other factors - such as increased insecurity - played an important role as well. Paddy rice yields were lowest in Kayah and Chin, two conflict-affected states. 2. Prices for most inputs used in paddy rice cultivation increased significantly between these two seasons. Prices of urea, the most important chemical fertilizer used by paddy rice farmers, increased by 87 percent on average while mechanization costs increased by 27 percent. Small decreases are noted, on average, in the use of paddy rice inputs over the last two monsoons. Despite the large price increases for chemical fertilizer, its use declined only by 8 percent compared to the previous monsoon. 3. Paddy prices at the farm level increased by 81 percent, reflecting changes in international rice prices as well as the depreciation of the MMK. Gross revenues per acre increased in nominal terms by 67 percent, mostly due to these high price increases. 4. Real profits, with nominal prices corrected by the change in the cost of an average food basket, from paddy rice farming during the monsoon of 2022 increased by 26 percent and 10 percent compared to the monsoon of 2021 and 2020 respectively. While nominal profits for paddy rice farmers increased by 95 percent over the last two seasons, price inflation has been high in the country and real profit increased much less. While the rice sector demonstrated resilience in the country, the current situation is concerning given productivity declines and high price increases, raising fears for increased food insecurity in the country. We have found improved farm profitability this year and as fertilizer prices for the coming monsoon (the monsoon of 2023) are down (due to international price decreases) and international rice prices are up (due to lower global stocks), this might further improve profitability - and incentives - for paddy production in 2023. These price developments might possibly reverse the declining productivity trend. The big unknowns that might impact paddy production in 2023 though are the weather - with less rainfall expected due to El Niño conditions in the second half of the year - and the evolution of conflict-related insecurity in the country.
Ending malnutrition in all forms is a global development priority. Investment in nutrition can yield high returns in terms of reduced health costs, increased productivity and improved human resources capacity and economic growth (Covic & and Hendriks 2016; Shekar et al. 2017). Nutrition policy-making and program interventions in developing countries fail to bring together several sectors that contribute to nutrition improvement. Since food systems influence the type of food produced, understanding relevant drivers of a country’s food system with an emphasis on nutrition can help to end malnutrition (Per Pinstrup-Andersen 2012a; HLPE 2017; Babu and Kataki 2003). In this paper, we adopt a food systems perspective to review Myanmar’s current food system. With the help of a review of the literature and two national consultative stakeholder workshops, we examine Myanmar’s current food system. This is a crucial step since it identifies gaps existing in the current policies/ strategies being implemented. After the review, we developed an AIT (analyze gaps, identify priority investment areas, and track progress) operational framework that can be used to increase the nutrition-sensitivity of a food system. Applying this framework to Agriculture Development Strategy (ADS), this paper presents an analysis of the gaps that need to be addressed to make ADS nutrition-sensitive, provide priority investment areas, and a tracking system which monitors the progress of these investments.
Despite significant poverty reduction over the past decade, undernutrition in Myanmar remains widespread. Food prices play an important role in influencing diets and nutrition outcomes, especially for poorer households. In this study, we use national household food expenditure data to assess dietary patterns and estimate regional costs of nutritious diets in Myanmar relative to a recommended diet derived from food-based dietary guidelines. We estimate these costs following the cost of a recommended diet method (CoRD), which is based on minimum food group prices. We also develop and demonstrate an extension of this method using food group prices that reflect typical food consumption preferences (CoRD-FP). We assess the affordability of the recommended diet by comparing observed household food expenditure to the CoRD and the CoRD-FP. In 2015, 52 percent of the Myanmar population lived in households with food expenditure below the CoRD-FP, compared to 70 percent in 2010. Even the CoRD, which measures the lowest possible cost of meeting the recommended diet, exceeded household food expenditure for 32 and 24 percent of the population in 2010 and 2015, respectively. Low affordability is driven by high costs of animal-source foods and vegetables, which account for half the CoRD-FP. A majority of households over-consume staples and under-consume micronutrient-dense food groups. This imbalance is driven in part by the high caloric price of nutrient-dense foods relative to rice. The inability of more than half of households in Myanmar to afford a recommended diet at existing food expenditure levels suggests the need for policies that reduce the prices of micronutrient-dense foods, ideally through pro-poor improvements in agricultural productivity and marketing.
