NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1995
NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1995

Author: Ben S. Bernanke

Publisher: MIT Press

Published: 1996

Total Pages: 364

ISBN-13: 9780262522052

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Contents : Wage Inequality and Regional Unemployment Persistence: U.S. vs. Europe, Guiseppe BErtola and Andreas Ichino. Capital Utilization and Returns to Scale, Craig Burnside, Martin Eichenbaum, and Sergio Rebelo. Banks and Derivatives, Gary Gorton and Richard Rosen. Exchange-Rate-Based Stabilizations: Theory and Evidence, Sergio Rebelo and Carlos Vegh. Inflation Indicators and Inflation Policy, Stephen Cecchetti. Recent Central Bank Reforms and the Role of Price Stability as the Sole Objective of Monetary Policy, Carl Walsh. Is Central Bank Independence (and Low Inflation) the Result of Effective Financial Opposition to Inflation?, Adam Posen. The Unending Quest for Monetary Salvation, Stanley Fischer.

Foreign Exchange Intervention Rules for Central Banks: A Risk-based Framework
Foreign Exchange Intervention Rules for Central Banks: A Risk-based Framework

Author: Romain Lafarguette

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2021-02-12

Total Pages: 33

ISBN-13: 1513569406

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This paper presents a rule for foreign exchange interventions (FXI), designed to preserve financial stability in floating exchange rate arrangements. The FXI rule addresses a market failure: the absence of hedging solution for tail exchange rate risk in the market (i.e. high volatility). Market impairment or overshoot of exchange rate between two equilibria could generate high volatility and threaten financial stability due to unhedged exposure to exchange rate risk in the economy. The rule uses the concept of Value at Risk (VaR) to define FXI triggers. While it provides to the market a hedge against tail risk, the rule allows the exchange rate to smoothly adjust to new equilibria. In addition, the rule is budget neutral over the medium term, encourages a prudent risk management in the market, and is more resilient to speculative attacks than other rules, such as fixed-volatility rules. The empirical methodology is backtested on Banco Mexico’s FXIs data between 2008 and 2016.

Dedollarization
Dedollarization

Author: Annamaria Kokenyne

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2010-08-01

Total Pages: 53

ISBN-13: 1455201715

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This paper provides a summary of the key policies that encourage dedollarization. It focuses on cases in which the authorities’ intention is to gain greater control of monetary policy and draws on the experiences of countries that have successfully dedollarized. Unlike previous work on the subject, this paper examines both macroeconomic stabilization policies and microeconomic measures, such as prudential regulation of the financial system. This study is also the first attempt to make extensive use of the foreign exchange regulation data reported in the IMF’s Annual Report on Exchange Arrangements and Exchange Restrictions. The main conclusion is that durable dedollarization depends on a credible disinflation plan and specific microeconomic measures.

Flexible Exchange Rates for a Stable World Economy
Flexible Exchange Rates for a Stable World Economy

Author: Joseph E. Gagnon

Publisher: Peterson Institute

Published: 2011

Total Pages: 301

ISBN-13: 0881326356

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Volatile exchange rates and how to manage them are a contentious topic whenever economic policymakers gather in international meetings. This book examines the broad parameters of exchange rate policy in light of both high-powered theory and real-world experience. What are the costs and benefits of flexible versus fixed exchange rates? How much of a role should the exchange rate play in monetary policy? Why don't volatile exchange rates destabilize inflation and output? The principal finding of this book is that using monetary policy to fight exchange rate volatility, including through the adoption of a fixed exchange rate regime, leads to greater volatility of employment, output, and inflation. In other words, the "cure" for exchange rate volatility is worse than the disease. This finding is demonstrated in economic models, in historical case studies, and in statistical analysis of the data. The book devotes considerable attention to understanding the reasons why volatile exchange rates do not destabilize inflation and output. The book concludes that many countries would benefit from allowing greater flexibility of their exchange rates in order to target monetary policy at stabilization of their domestic economies. Few, if any, countries would benefit from a move in the opposite direction.

Evolving Monetary Policy Frameworks in Low-Income and Other Developing Countries
Evolving Monetary Policy Frameworks in Low-Income and Other Developing Countries

Author: International Monetary Fund

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2015-10-23

Total Pages: 74

ISBN-13: 1498344062

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Over the past two decades, many low- and lower-middle income countries (LLMICs) have improved control over fiscal policy, liberalized and deepened financial markets, and stabilized inflation at moderate levels. Monetary policy frameworks that have helped achieve these ends are being challenged by continued financial development and increased exposure to global capital markets. Many policymakers aspire to move beyond the basics of stability to implement monetary policy frameworks that better anchor inflation and promote macroeconomic stability and growth. Many of these LLMICs are thus considering and implementing improvements to their monetary policy frameworks. The recent successes of some LLMICs and the experiences of emerging and advanced economies, both early in their policy modernization process and following the global financial crisis, are valuable in identifying desirable features of such frameworks. This paper draws on those lessons to provide guidance on key elements of effective monetary policy frameworks for LLMICs.

Exchange-Rate-Based Stabilization
Exchange-Rate-Based Stabilization

Author: Mr.A. Javier Hamann

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 1999-10-01

Total Pages: 29

ISBN-13: 1451855362

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Do exchange-rate-based stabilizations generate distinctive economic dynamics? To address this question, this paper identifies stabilization episodes using criteria that differ from those in previous empirical studies of exchange-rate-based stabilizations. We find that, while some differences can be detected between exchange-rate-based stabilizations and stabilizations where the exchange rate is not the anchor, the behavior of important variables does not appear to differ—especially output growth, which is good in both cases. There is also no evidence that fiscal discipline is enhanced by adopting an exchange-rate anchor, or that there are any systematic differences in the success records of stabilizations that use the exchange rate as a nominal anchor and those that do not.

Dominant Currency Paradigm: A New Model for Small Open Economies
Dominant Currency Paradigm: A New Model for Small Open Economies

Author: Camila Casas

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2017-11-22

Total Pages: 62

ISBN-13: 1484330609

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Most trade is invoiced in very few currencies. Despite this, the Mundell-Fleming benchmark and its variants focus on pricing in the producer’s currency or in local currency. We model instead a ‘dominant currency paradigm’ for small open economies characterized by three features: pricing in a dominant currency; pricing complementarities, and imported input use in production. Under this paradigm: (a) the terms-of-trade is stable; (b) dominant currency exchange rate pass-through into export and import prices is high regardless of destination or origin of goods; (c) exchange rate pass-through of non-dominant currencies is small; (d) expenditure switching occurs mostly via imports, driven by the dollar exchange rate while exports respond weakly, if at all; (e) strengthening of the dominant currency relative to non-dominant ones can negatively impact global trade; (f) optimal monetary policy targets deviations from the law of one price arising from dominant currency fluctuations, in addition to the inflation and output gap. Using data from Colombia we document strong support for the dominant currency paradigm.

China’s Evolving Exchange Rate Regime
China’s Evolving Exchange Rate Regime

Author: Mr.Sonali Das

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2019-03-07

Total Pages: 31

ISBN-13: 1498302025

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China’s exchange rate regime has undergone gradual reform since the move away from a fixed exchange rate in 2005. The renminbi has become more flexible over time but is still carefully managed, and depth and liquidity in the onshore FX market is relatively low compared to other countries with de jure floating currencies. Allowing a greater role for market forces within the existing regime, and greater two-way flexibility of the exchange rate, are important steps to build on the progress already made. This should be complemented by further steps to develop the FX market, improve FX risk management, and modernize the monetary policy framework.