This volume presents an entirely new analysis of the economics of futures markets, that will be of interest to both specialists in the area and the generalist economist seeking a new perspective. Through a combination of theoretical investigation and empirical application, three important themes are explored: the gains from futures trading and the efforts of emerging markets to reap these benefits; rationality and rival hypotheses of trader behaviour, such as noise trading; and the effect of regulatory tools on price formation.
"The World Scientific Handbook of Futures Markets serves as a definitive source for comprehensive and accessible information in futures markets. The emphasis is on the unique characteristics of futures markets that make them worthy of a special volume. In our judgment, futures markets are currently undergoing remarkable changes as trading is shifting from open outcry to electronic and as the traditional functions of hedging and speculation are extended to include futures as an alternative investment vehicle in traditional portfolios. The unique feature of this volume is the selection of five classic papers that lay the foundations of the futures markets and the invitation to the leading academics who do work in the area to write critical surveys in a dozen important topics."--$cProvided by publisher.
This book offers an explanation of why commodity processors and dealers use futures markets. It argues that they use futures contracts as part of an implicit method of borrowing and lending commodities, contrary to the accepted view of dealers averse to the fluctuating value of their inventories wanting insurance against price risk. Employing models developed to explain the demand for money, this book demonstrates that risk-neutral dealers have sufficient reason to use futures markets. Moreover, the book exposes major internal inconsistencies in the accepted explanation. Rather than insurance markets, the appropriate analogy is the money market, which is the point the book establishes through discussing actual loan markets in commodities. This insight into the function of futures markets is then used to explain how futures prices for different delivery dates express a term structure of commodity-specific interest rates and why futures markets flourish for some types of commodities and not for others.
The markets for electricity, gas and temperature have distinctive features, which provide the focus for countless studies. For instance, electricity and gas prices may soar several magnitudes above their normal levels within a short time due to imbalances in supply and demand, yielding what is known as spikes in the spot prices. The markets are also largely influenced by seasons, since power demand for heating and cooling varies over the year. The incompleteness of the markets, due to nonstorability of electricity and temperature as well as limited storage capacity of gas, makes spot-forward hedging impossible. Moreover, futures contracts are typically settled over a time period rather than at a fixed date. All these aspects of the markets create new challenges when analyzing price dynamics of spot, futures and other derivatives.This book provides a concise and rigorous treatment on the stochastic modeling of energy markets. Ornstein?Uhlenbeck processes are described as the basic modeling tool for spot price dynamics, where innovations are driven by time-inhomogeneous jump processes. Temperature futures are studied based on a continuous higher-order autoregressive model for the temperature dynamics. The theory presented here pays special attention to the seasonality of volatility and the Samuelson effect. Empirical studies using data from electricity, temperature and gas markets are given to link theory to practice.
This edition covers all of the historical developments of the futures market in a manner accessible to a wide range of readers and offers an unparalleled breadth and depth of coverage
Weather derivatives provide a tool for weather risk management, and the markets for these exotic financial products are gradually emerging in size and importance. This unique monograph presents a unified approach to the modeling and analysis of such weather derivatives, including financial contracts on temperature, wind and rain. Based on a deep statistical analysis of weather factors, sophisticated stochastic processes are introduced modeling the time and space dynamics. Applying ideas from the modern theory of mathematical finance, weather derivatives are priced, and questions of hedging analyzed. The treatise contains an in-depth analysis of typical weather contracts traded at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), including so-called CDD and HDD futures. The statistical analysis of weather variables is based on a large data set from Lithuania.The monograph includes the research done by the authors over the last decade on weather markets. Their work has gained considerable attention, and has been applied in many contexts.
The book begins by building upon the established, conventional principles of finance that you've have already learned in your principles course. The authors then move into psychological principles of behavioral finance, including heuristics and biases, overconfidence, emotion and social forces. You immediately see how human behavior influences the decisions of individual investors and professional finance practitioners, managers, and markets. You also gain a strong understanding of how social forces impact individuals' choices. The book clearly explains what behavioral finance indicates about observed market outcomes as well as how psychological biases potentially impact the behavior of managers. The book's solid academic approach provides opportunities for you to utilize theory and complete applications in every chapter as you learn the implications of behavioral finance on retirement, pensions, education, debiasing, and client management. The book spends a significant amount of time examining how today's practitioners can use behavioral finance to further their professional success.
Beating the Financial Futures Market provides you with a straightforward, historically proven program to cut through the noise, determine what bits of information are valuable, and integrate those bits into an overall trading program designed to jump on lucrative trading opportunities as they occur. It will help you improve both your percentage of winning trades and the bottom line profitability of those winning trades.
During bull and bear markets, there is a group of hedge funds and professional traders which have been consistently outperforming traditional investment strategies for the past 30 odd years. They have shown remarkable uncorrelated performance and in the great bear market of 2008 they had record gains. These traders are highly secretive about their proprietary trading algorithms and often employ top PhDs in their research teams. Yet, it is possible to replicate their trading performance with relatively simplistic models. These traders are trend following cross asset futures managers, also known as CTAs. Many books are written about them but none explain their strategies in such detail as to enable the reader to emulate their success and create their own trend following trading business, until now. Following the Trend explains why most hopefuls fail by focusing on the wrong things, such as buy and sell rules, and teaches the truly important parts of trend following. Trading everything from the Nasdaq index and T-bills to currency crosses, platinum and live hogs, there are large gains to be made regardless of the state of the economy or stock markets. By analysing year by year trend following performance and attribution the reader will be able to build a deep understanding of what it is like to trade futures in large scale and where the real problems and opportunities lay. Written by experienced hedge fund manager Andreas Clenow, this book provides a comprehensive insight into the strategies behind the booming trend following futures industry from the perspective of a market participant. The strategies behind the success of this industry are explained in great detail, including complete trading rules and instructions for how to replicate the performance of successful hedge funds. You are in for a potentially highly profitable roller coaster ride with this hard and honest look at the positive as well as the negative sides of trend following.
The essential futures market reference guide A Complete Guide to the Futures Market is the comprehensive resource for futures traders and analysts. Spanning everything from technical analysis, trading systems, and fundamental analysis to options, spreads, and practical trading principles, A Complete Guide is required reading for any trader or investor who wants to successfully navigate the futures market. Clear, concise, and to the point, this fully revised and updated second edition provides a solid foundation in futures market basics, details key analysis and forecasting techniques, explores advanced trading concepts, and illustrates the practical application of these ideas with hundreds of market examples. A Complete Guide to the Futures Market: Details different trading and analytical approaches, including chart analysis, technical indicators and trading systems, regression analysis, and fundamental market models. Separates misleading market myths from reality. Gives step-by-step instruction for developing and testing original trading ideas and systems. Illustrates a wide range of option strategies, and explains the trading implications of each. Details a wealth of practical trading guidelines and market insights from a recognized trading authority. Trading futures without a firm grasp of this market’s realities and nuances is a recipe for losing money. A Complete Guide to the Futures Market offers serious traders and investors the tools to keep themselves on the right side of the ledger.
