Modeling International Conflict
Author: Frank C. Zagare
Publisher: Taylor & Francis
Published: 1990
Total Pages: 176
ISBN-13: 9782881243967
DOWNLOAD EBOOKFirst Published in 1990. Routledge is an imprint of Taylor & Francis, an informa company.
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Agent-Based Modeling of Social Conflict
Author: Carlos M. Lemos
Publisher: Springer
Published: 2017-10-24
Total Pages: 132
ISBN-13: 3319670506
DOWNLOAD EBOOKThis Brief revisits and extends Epstein’s classical agent-based model of civil violence by considering important mechanisms suggested by social conflict theories. Among them are: relative deprivation as generator of hardship, generalized vanishing of the risk perception (‘massive fear loss’) when the uprisings surpass a certain threshold, endogenous legitimacy feedback, and network influence effects represented by the mechanism of dispositional contagion. The model is explored in a set of computer experiments designed to provide insight on how mechanisms lead to increased complexity of the solutions. The results of the simulations are compared with statistical analyses of estimated size, duration and recurrence of large demonstrations and riots for eight African countries affected by the “Arab Spring,” based on the Social Conflict Analysis Database. It is shown that the extensions to Epstein’s model proposed herein lead to increased “generative capacity” of the agent-based model (i.e. a richer set of meaningful qualitative behaviors) as well the identification of key mechanisms and associated parameters with tipping points. The use of quantitative information (international indicators and statistical analyses of conflict events) allows the assessment of the plausibility of input parameter values and simulated results, and thus a better understanding of the model’s strengths and limitations. The contributions of the present work for understanding how mechanisms of large scale conflict lead to complexbehavior include a new form of the estimated arrest probability, a simple representation of political vs economic deprivation with a parameter which controls the `sensitivity' to value, endogenous legitimacy feedback, and the effect of network influences (due to small groups and “activists”). In addition, the analysis of the Social Conflict Analysis Database provided a quantitative description of the impact of the “Arab Spring” in several countries focused on complexity issues such as peaceful vs violent, spontaneous vs organized, and patterns of size, duration and recurrence of conflict events in this recent and important large-scale conflict process. This book will appeal to students and researchers working in these computational social science subfields.
Agent-Based Modeling of Environmental Conflict and Cooperation
Author: Todd K. BenDor
Publisher: CRC Press
Published: 2018-09-04
Total Pages: 328
ISBN-13: 9781138476035
DOWNLOAD EBOOKThis book examines the recent development and use of computer modeling and simulation as an important tool for understanding environmental and resource-based conflicts and for finding pathways for conflict resolution and cooperation. It introduces a new, innovative technique for using agent-based modeling (ABM) as a tool for better understanding environmental conflicts and discusses the application of agent-based modeling for the analysis of multi-agent interaction and conflict and demonstrates the natural interdisciplinary convergence. The authors explore numerous examples of environmental and resource conflicts around the world, as well as cooperative approaches for conflict resolution.
Travelling Models in African Conflict Management
Author:
Publisher: BRILL
Published: 2014-05-01
Total Pages: 259
ISBN-13: 900427409X
DOWNLOAD EBOOKTravelling Models offers a theoretical concept for comparative research on conflict management in Africa in processes of globalization: how is change in one place related to developments in other places? Why are certain issues that are important in one place taken up in other places, while others are not? The authors examine how the travel of models enact changes, particularly in African conflict situations, most often in unexpected ways. They look at what happens when a model has been put into practice at a conflict site, and they pay attention to the forms of social (re-)ordering resulting from this process. The authors look, among others, at conflict managing models of power- and revenue sharing, mediation, freedom of expression, disaster management, community involvement and workshopping. Contributors are: Andrea Behrends, Lydie Cabane, Veronika Fuest, Dejene Gemechu, Mutasim Bashir Ali Hadi, Remadji Hoinathy, Mario Krämer, Sung-Joon Park, Tinashe Pfigu, Richard Rottenburg, Sylvanus Spencer and Kees van der Waal. The Introduction of this volume is being offered in Open Access
Model Codes for Post-conflict Criminal Justice
Author: Vivienne M. O'Connor
Publisher: US Institute of Peace Press
Published: 2007
Total Pages: 544
ISBN-13: 9781601270122
DOWNLOAD EBOOKAccompanying CD-ROMs contains the text of vol. 1. and vol. 2.
Disequilibrium, Polarization, and Crisis Model
Author: Isabelle Dierauer
Publisher: University Press of America
Published: 2013-05-16
Total Pages: 280
ISBN-13: 0761861068
DOWNLOAD EBOOKDifferent international relations theorists have studied political change, but all fall short of sufficiently integrating human reactions, feelings, and responses to change in their theories. This book adds a social psychological component to the analysis of why nations, politically organized groups, or states enter into armed conflict. The Disequilibrium, Polarization, and Crisis Model is introduced, which draws from prospect theory, realism, liberalism, and constructivism. The theory considers how humans react and respond to change in their social, political, and economic environment. Three case studies, the U.S. Civil War, the Yugoslav Wars (1991-1995), and the First World War are applied to illustrate the model’s six process stages: status quo, change creating shifts that lead to disequilibrium, realization of loss, hanging on to the old status quo, emergence of a rigid system, and risky decisions leading to violence and war.
Programming for Peace
Author: Robert Trappl
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Published: 2006
Total Pages: 482
ISBN-13: 9781402043772
DOWNLOAD EBOOKSadly enough, war, conflicts and terrorism appear to stay with us in the 21st century. But what is our outlook on new methods for preventing and ending them? Present-day hard- and software enables the development of large crisis, conflict, and conflict management databases with many variables, sometimes with automated updates, statistical analyses of a high complexity, elaborate simulation models, and even interactive uses of these databases. In this book, these methods are presented, further developed, and applied in relation to the main issue: the resolution and prevention of intra- and international conflicts. Conflicts are a worldwide phenomenon. Therefore, internationally leading researchers from the USA, Austria, Canada, Germany, New Zealand and Switzerland have contributed. This book is for students and scientists in international relations and political sciences, and decision makers or their advisers in national and international bodies, both governmental and non-governmental.
Economic Interdependence and International Conflict
Author: Edward Deering Mansfield
Publisher: University of Michigan Press
Published: 2009-09-15
Total Pages: 367
ISBN-13: 0472022938
DOWNLOAD EBOOKThe claim that open trade promotes peace has sparked heated debate among scholars and policymakers for centuries. Until recently, however, this claim remained untested and largely unexplored. Economic Interdependence and International Conflict clarifies the state of current knowledge about the effects of foreign commerce on political-military relations and identifies the avenues of new research needed to improve our understanding of this relationship. The contributions to this volume offer crucial insights into the political economy of national security, the causes of war, and the politics of global economic relations. Edward D. Mansfield is Hum Rosen Professor of Political Science and Co-Director of the Christopher H. Browne Center for International Politics at the University of Pennsylvania. Brian M. Pollins is Associate Professor of Political Science at Ohio State University and a Research Fellow at the Mershon Center.
Networked Regionalism as Conflict Management
Author: Anna Ohanyan
Publisher: Stanford University Press
Published: 2015-04-15
Total Pages: 267
ISBN-13: 0804794944
DOWNLOAD EBOOKMost regions of the world are plagued by conflicts that are made insoluble by a confluence of complex threads from history, geography, politics, and culture. These "frozen conflicts" defy conflict management interventions by both internal and external agents and institutions. Worse, they constantly threaten to extend beyond their local geographies, as in the terrorist bombings in Boston by ethnic Chechens, or to escalate from skirmishes to full-scale war, as in Nagorno-Karabakh. Consequently, such conflicts cry out for alternative approaches to the classic, state-focused, and sovereignty-based conflict management models that are practiced in traditional diplomacy—which most often produce rather short-term, ad hoc, fragmented interventions and outcomes. Drawing upon the cases of the South Caucasus, the Western Balkans, Central America, South East Asia, and Northern Ireland, Networked Regionalism as Conflict Management offers a theoretical and practical solution to this impasse by arguing for regional collective interventions that involve a long-term reengineering of existing conflict management infrastructure on the ground. Such approaches have been attracting the attention of scholars and practitioners alike yet, thus far, these concepts have rarely involved more than simple prescriptions for regional cooperation between grassroots actors and traditional diplomacy. Specifically, says Anna Ohanyan, only the cultivation and establishment of regional peace systems can provide an effective path toward conflict management in these standoffs in such intractably divided regions.
International Conflict Resolution After the Cold War
Author: National Research Council
Publisher: National Academies Press
Published: 2000-11-07
Total Pages: 640
ISBN-13: 0309171733
DOWNLOAD EBOOKThe end of the Cold War has changed the shape of organized violence in the world and the ways in which governments and others try to set its limits. Even the concept of international conflict is broadening to include ethnic conflicts and other kinds of violence within national borders that may affect international peace and security. What is not yet clear is whether or how these changes alter the way actors on the world scene should deal with conflict: Do the old methods still work? Are there new tools that could work better? How do old and new methods relate to each other? International Conflict Resolution After the Cold War critically examines evidence on the effectiveness of a dozen approaches to managing or resolving conflict in the world to develop insights for conflict resolution practitioners. It considers recent applications of familiar conflict management strategies, such as the use of threats of force, economic sanctions, and negotiation. It presents the first systematic assessments of the usefulness of some less familiar approaches to conflict resolution, including truth commissions, "engineered" electoral systems, autonomy arrangements, and regional organizations. It also opens up analysis of emerging issues, such as the dilemmas facing humanitarian organizations in complex emergencies. This book offers numerous practical insights and raises key questions for research on conflict resolution in a transforming world system.
