Markov-Switching Vector Autoregressions
Markov-Switching Vector Autoregressions

Author: Hans-Martin Krolzig

Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media

Published: 2013-06-29

Total Pages: 369

ISBN-13: 364251684X

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This book contributes to re cent developments on the statistical analysis of multiple time series in the presence of regime shifts. Markov-switching models have become popular for modelling non-linearities and regime shifts, mainly, in univariate eco nomic time series. This study is intended to provide a systematic and operational ap proach to the econometric modelling of dynamic systems subject to shifts in regime, based on the Markov-switching vector autoregressive model. The study presents a comprehensive analysis of the theoretical properties of Markov-switching vector autoregressive processes and the related statistical methods. The statistical concepts are illustrated with applications to empirical business cyde research. This monograph is a revised version of my dissertation which has been accepted by the Economics Department of the Humboldt-University of Berlin in 1996. It con sists mainly of unpublished material which has been presented during the last years at conferences and in seminars. The major parts of this study were written while I was supported by the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschajt (DFG), Berliner Graduier tenkolleg Angewandte Mikroökonomik and Sondeiforschungsbereich 373 at the Free University and Humboldt-University of Berlin. Work was finally completed in the project The Econometrics of Macroeconomic Forecasting founded by the Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC) at the Institute of Economies and Statistics, University of Oxford. It is a pleasure to record my thanks to these institutions for their support of my research embodied in this study.

Structural Vector Autoregressive Analysis
Structural Vector Autoregressive Analysis

Author: Lutz Kilian

Publisher: Cambridge University Press

Published: 2017-11-23

Total Pages: 757

ISBN-13: 1107196574

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This book discusses the econometric foundations of structural vector autoregressive modeling, as used in empirical macroeconomics, finance, and related fields.

Macroeconometrics and Time Series Analysis
Macroeconometrics and Time Series Analysis

Author: Steven Durlauf

Publisher: Springer

Published: 2016-04-30

Total Pages: 417

ISBN-13: 0230280838

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Specially selected from The New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics 2nd edition, each article within this compendium covers the fundamental themes within the discipline and is written by a leading practitioner in the field. A handy reference tool.

Advances in Markov-Switching Models
Advances in Markov-Switching Models

Author: James D. Hamilton

Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media

Published: 2013-06-29

Total Pages: 267

ISBN-13: 3642511821

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This book is a collection of state-of-the-art papers on the properties of business cycles and financial analysis. The individual contributions cover new advances in Markov-switching models with applications to business cycle research and finance. The introduction surveys the existing methods and new results of the last decade. Individual chapters study features of the U. S. and European business cycles with particular focus on the role of monetary policy, oil shocks and co movements among key variables. The short-run versus long-run consequences of an economic recession are also discussed. Another area that is featured is an extensive analysis of currency crises and the possibility of bubbles or fads in stock prices. A concluding chapter offers useful new results on testing for this kind of regime-switching behaviour. Overall, the book provides a state-of-the-art over view of new directions in methods and results for estimation and inference based on the use of Markov-switching time-series analysis. A special feature of the book is that it includes an illustration of a wide range of applications based on a common methodology. It is expected that the theme of the book will be of particular interest to the macroeconomics readers as well as econometrics professionals, scholars and graduate students. We wish to express our gratitude to the authors for their strong contributions and the reviewers for their assistance and careful attention to detail in their reports.

State-space Models with Regime Switching
State-space Models with Regime Switching

Author: Chang-Jin Kim

Publisher: Mit Press

Published: 1999

Total Pages: 297

ISBN-13: 9780262112383

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Both state-space models and Markov switching models have been highly productive paths for empirical research in macroeconomics and finance. This book presents recent advances in econometric methods that make feasible the estimation of models that have both features. One approach, in the classical framework, approximates the likelihood function; the other, in the Bayesian framework, uses Gibbs-sampling to simulate posterior distributions from data.The authors present numerous applications of these approaches in detail: decomposition of time series into trend and cycle, a new index of coincident economic indicators, approaches to modeling monetary policy uncertainty, Friedman's "plucking" model of recessions, the detection of turning points in the business cycle and the question of whether booms and recessions are duration-dependent, state-space models with heteroskedastic disturbances, fads and crashes in financial markets, long-run real exchange rates, and mean reversion in asset returns.

Finite Mixture and Markov Switching Models
Finite Mixture and Markov Switching Models

Author: Sylvia Frühwirth-Schnatter

Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media

Published: 2006-11-24

Total Pages: 506

ISBN-13: 0387357688

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The past decade has seen powerful new computational tools for modeling which combine a Bayesian approach with recent Monte simulation techniques based on Markov chains. This book is the first to offer a systematic presentation of the Bayesian perspective of finite mixture modelling. The book is designed to show finite mixture and Markov switching models are formulated, what structures they imply on the data, their potential uses, and how they are estimated. Presenting its concepts informally without sacrificing mathematical correctness, it will serve a wide readership including statisticians as well as biologists, economists, engineers, financial and market researchers.

Complex Systems in Finance and Econometrics
Complex Systems in Finance and Econometrics

Author: Robert A. Meyers

Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media

Published: 2010-11-03

Total Pages: 919

ISBN-13: 1441977007

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Finance, Econometrics and System Dynamics presents an overview of the concepts and tools for analyzing complex systems in a wide range of fields. The text integrates complexity with deterministic equations and concepts from real world examples, and appeals to a broad audience.

Handbook of Research Methods and Applications in Empirical Macroeconomics
Handbook of Research Methods and Applications in Empirical Macroeconomics

Author: Nigar Hashimzade

Publisher: Edward Elgar Publishing

Published: 2013-01-01

Total Pages: 627

ISBN-13: 0857931024

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This comprehensive Handbook presents the current state of art in the theory and methodology of macroeconomic data analysis. It is intended as a reference for graduate students and researchers interested in exploring new methodologies, but can also be employed as a graduate text. The Handbook concentrates on the most important issues, models and techniques for research in macroeconomics, and highlights the core methodologies and their empirical application in an accessible manner. Each chapter is largely self-contained, whilst the comprehensive introduction provides an overview of the key statistical concepts and methods. All of the chapters include the essential references for each topic and provide a sound guide for further reading. Topics covered include unit roots, non-linearities and structural breaks, time aggregation, forecasting, the Kalman filter, generalised method of moments, maximum likelihood and Bayesian estimation, vector autoregressive, dynamic stochastic general equilibrium and dynamic panel models. Presenting the most important models and techniques for empirical research, this Handbook will appeal to students, researchers and academics working in empirical macro and econometrics.

Applied Economic Forecasting Using Time Series Methods
Applied Economic Forecasting Using Time Series Methods

Author: Eric Ghysels

Publisher: Oxford University Press

Published: 2018

Total Pages: 617

ISBN-13: 0190622016

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Economic forecasting is a key ingredient of decision making in the public and private sectors. This book provides the necessary tools to solve real-world forecasting problems using time-series methods. It targets undergraduate and graduate students as well as researchers in public and private institutions interested in applied economic forecasting.

Structural Changes and their Econometric Modeling
Structural Changes and their Econometric Modeling

Author: Vladik Kreinovich

Publisher: Springer

Published: 2018-11-24

Total Pages: 784

ISBN-13: 3030042634

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This book focuses on structural changes and economic modeling. It presents papers describing how to model structural changes, as well as those introducing improvements to the existing before-structural-changes models, making it easier to later on combine these models with techniques describing structural changes. The book also includes related theoretical developments and practical applications of the resulting techniques to economic problems. Most traditional mathematical models of economic processes describe how the corresponding quantities change with time. However, in addition to such relatively smooth numerical changes, economical phenomena often undergo more drastic structural change. Describing such structural changes is not easy, but it is vital if we want to have a more adequate description of economic phenomena – and thus, more accurate and more reliable predictions and a better understanding on how best to influence the economic situation.