Making Hard Decisions with DecisionTools
Making Hard Decisions with DecisionTools

Author: Robert Taylor Clemen

Publisher: Brooks/Cole Publishing Company

Published: 2001

Total Pages: 733

ISBN-13: 9780534421991

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MAKING HARD DECISIONS WITH DECISIONTOOLS® is a special version of Bob Clemen's best-selling text, MAKING HARD DECISIONS. This straight-forward book teaches the fundamental ideas of decision analysis, without an overly technical explanation of the mathematics used in management science. This new version incorporates and implements the powerful DecisionTools® by Palisade Corporation, the world's leading toolkit for risk and decision analysis. At the end of each chapter, topics are illustrated with step-by-step instructions for DecisionTools®. This new version makes the text more useful and relevant to students to business and engineering.

Making Hard Decisions with DecisionTools
Making Hard Decisions with DecisionTools

Author: Robert Taylor Clemen

Publisher: South-Western Pub

Published: 2001

Total Pages: 733

ISBN-13: 9780495015086

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Hardcover Textbook ISBN 0534383041 Decision Tools CD ISBN 0534409199 Decision Tools CD ISBN 0495015075 are included in the set.

Making Hard Decisions
Making Hard Decisions

Author: Robert Taylor Clemen

Publisher: South Western Educational Publishing

Published: 1996-01

Total Pages: 664

ISBN-13: 9780534260347

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This best-selling and up-to-date survey of decision analysis concepts and techniques is accessible to students with limited mathematical backgrounds. It is designed for advanced undergraduate and MBA-level courses in decision analysis and also for business courses in introductory quantitative methods. (Prerequisites: college algebra; introductory statistics.)

How to Decide
How to Decide

Author: Annie Duke

Publisher: Penguin

Published: 2020-10-13

Total Pages: 290

ISBN-13: 0593418484

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Through a blend of compelling exercises, illustrations, and stories, the bestselling author of Thinking in Bets will train you to combat your own biases, address your weaknesses, and help you become a better and more confident decision-maker. What do you do when you're faced with a big decision? If you're like most people, you probably make a pro and con list, spend a lot of time obsessing about decisions that didn't work out, get caught in analysis paralysis, endlessly seek other people's opinions to find just that little bit of extra information that might make you sure, and finally go with your gut. What if there was a better way to make quality decisions so you can think clearly, feel more confident, second-guess yourself less, and ultimately be more decisive and be more productive? Making good decisions doesn't have to be a series of endless guesswork. Rather, it's a teachable skill that anyone can sharpen. In How to Decide, bestselling author Annie Duke and former professional poker player lays out a series of tools anyone can use to make better decisions. You'll learn: • To identify and dismantle hidden biases. • To extract the highest quality feedback from those whose advice you seek. • To more accurately identify the influence of luck in the outcome of your decisions. • When to decide fast, when to decide slow, and when to decide in advance. • To make decisions that more effectively help you to realize your goals and live your values. Through interactive exercises and engaging thought experiments, this book helps you analyze key decisions you've made in the past and troubleshoot those you're making in the future. Whether you're picking investments, evaluating a job offer, or trying to figure out your romantic life, How to Decide is the key to happier outcomes and fewer regrets.

Decisive
Decisive

Author: Chip Heath

Publisher: Random House Canada

Published: 2013-03-26

Total Pages: 326

ISBN-13: 0307361144

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The four principles that can help us to overcome our brains' natural biases to make better, more informed decisions--in our lives, careers, families and organizations. In Decisive, Chip Heath and Dan Heath, the bestselling authors of Made to Stick and Switch, tackle the thorny problem of how to overcome our natural biases and irrational thinking to make better decisions, about our work, lives, companies and careers. When it comes to decision making, our brains are flawed instruments. But given that we are biologically hard-wired to act foolishly and behave irrationally at times, how can we do better? A number of recent bestsellers have identified how irrational our decision making can be. But being aware of a bias doesn't correct it, just as knowing that you are nearsighted doesn't help you to see better. In Decisive, the Heath brothers, drawing on extensive studies, stories and research, offer specific, practical tools that can help us to think more clearly about our options, and get out of our heads, to improve our decision making, at work and at home.

Algorithms for Decision Making
Algorithms for Decision Making

Author: Mykel J. Kochenderfer

Publisher: MIT Press

Published: 2022-08-16

Total Pages: 701

ISBN-13: 0262047012

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A broad introduction to algorithms for decision making under uncertainty, introducing the underlying mathematical problem formulations and the algorithms for solving them. Automated decision-making systems or decision-support systems—used in applications that range from aircraft collision avoidance to breast cancer screening—must be designed to account for various sources of uncertainty while carefully balancing multiple objectives. This textbook provides a broad introduction to algorithms for decision making under uncertainty, covering the underlying mathematical problem formulations and the algorithms for solving them. The book first addresses the problem of reasoning about uncertainty and objectives in simple decisions at a single point in time, and then turns to sequential decision problems in stochastic environments where the outcomes of our actions are uncertain. It goes on to address model uncertainty, when we do not start with a known model and must learn how to act through interaction with the environment; state uncertainty, in which we do not know the current state of the environment due to imperfect perceptual information; and decision contexts involving multiple agents. The book focuses primarily on planning and reinforcement learning, although some of the techniques presented draw on elements of supervised learning and optimization. Algorithms are implemented in the Julia programming language. Figures, examples, and exercises convey the intuition behind the various approaches presented.

Strategic Decision Making
Strategic Decision Making

Author: Craig W. Kirkwood

Publisher: Brooks/Cole

Published: 1997

Total Pages: 388

ISBN-13:

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This work on strategic decision making focuses on multi-objective decision analysis with spreadsheets

Decision Analysis for Management Judgment
Decision Analysis for Management Judgment

Author: Paul Goodwin

Publisher: John Wiley & Sons

Published: 2014-05-12

Total Pages: 496

ISBN-13: 1118740734

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Decision Analysis for Management Judgment is unique in its breadth of coverage of decision analysis methods. It covers both the psychological problems that are associated with unaided managerial decision making and the decision analysis methods designed to overcome them. It is presented and explained in a clear, straightforward manner without using mathematical notation. This latest edition has been fully revised and updated and includes a number of changes to reflect the latest developments in the field.

Judgment Calls
Judgment Calls

Author: Thomas H. Davenport

Publisher: Harvard Business Review Press

Published: 2012-04-03

Total Pages: 280

ISBN-13: 142215811X

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Your guide to making better decisions Despite the dizzying amount of data at our disposal today—and an increasing reliance on analytics to make the majority of our decisions—many of our most critical choices still come down to human judgment. This fact is fundamental to organizations whose leaders must often make crucial decisions: to do this they need the best available insights. In Judgment Calls, authors Tom Davenport and Brook Manville share twelve stories of organizations that have successfully tapped their data assets, diverse perspectives, and deep knowledge to build an organizational decision-making capability—a competence they say can make the difference between success and failure. This book introduces a model that taps the collective judgment of an organization so that the right decisions are made, and the entire organization profits. Through the stories in Judgment Calls, the authors—both of them seasoned management thinkers and advisers—make the case for the wisdom of organizations and suggest ways to use it to best advantage. Each chapter tells a unique story of one dilemma and its ultimate resolution, bringing into high relief one key to the power of collective judgment. Individually, these stories inspire and instruct; together, they form a model for building an organizational capacity for broadly based, knowledge-intensive decision making. You’ve read The Wisdom of Crowds and Competing on Analytics. Now read Judgment Calls. You, and your organization, will make better decisions.