This best-selling and up-to-date survey of decision analysis concepts and techniques is accessible to students with limited mathematical backgrounds. It is designed for advanced undergraduate and MBA-level courses in decision analysis and also for business courses in introductory quantitative methods. (Prerequisites: college algebra; introductory statistics.)
What if fear is the new brave? That's the question that you need answered if you are living afraid. Finding courage begins with fear itself--fear of the Lord. I Choose Brave reveals a countercultural plan to help you where you are--knee-deep in fears of parenting, the future, your marriage, and a world that feels unstable. When you're feeling fearful, the last thing you need is a social-media meme telling you to simply "power through" your fears. In I Choose Brave, Katie Westenberg digs deep into Scripture and shows that finding the courage to overcome our fears must start with fear of the Lord. Hundreds of passages speak to this foundational truth, yet we have somehow relegated them to antiquity. In sharing her own compelling story of facing her worst fear, Katie serves up theological truth with relatable application. In this book, you will · discover a fresh take on an old truth that displaces fear once and for all · understand why the culture's idea of "fearlessness" is a farce · access the holy courage you were made for With this new knowledge comes tremendous freedom. Hidden in the cleft of the Rock, the One truly worthy of our fear, you will begin to understand the only path to real courage.
Our decisions determine our lives. Invest in a company that goes bankrupt and you lose your life savings. Say the wrong thing in an interview and you miss the job of the lifetime. Make no decisions and you miss every opportunity. In today's rapidly changing world, the cost of poor decisions (and no decisions) is higher than ever. In How to Make Good Decisions Wisely, author and scholar Alan Ehler lays out a clear approach to making big decisions based on the Bible and recent discoveries in neuroscience and decision science. He presents a simple, four-step process that can be followed to make any kind of decision, whether personal, professional, or relational. Making big decisions can rewrite lives, careers, families, churches, and businesses. A lot is at stake. Learn how to choose well.
Through a blend of compelling exercises, illustrations, and stories, the bestselling author of Thinking in Bets will train you to combat your own biases, address your weaknesses, and help you become a better and more confident decision-maker. What do you do when you're faced with a big decision? If you're like most people, you probably make a pro and con list, spend a lot of time obsessing about decisions that didn't work out, get caught in analysis paralysis, endlessly seek other people's opinions to find just that little bit of extra information that might make you sure, and finally go with your gut. What if there was a better way to make quality decisions so you can think clearly, feel more confident, second-guess yourself less, and ultimately be more decisive and be more productive? Making good decisions doesn't have to be a series of endless guesswork. Rather, it's a teachable skill that anyone can sharpen. In How to Decide, bestselling author Annie Duke and former professional poker player lays out a series of tools anyone can use to make better decisions. You'll learn: • To identify and dismantle hidden biases. • To extract the highest quality feedback from those whose advice you seek. • To more accurately identify the influence of luck in the outcome of your decisions. • When to decide fast, when to decide slow, and when to decide in advance. • To make decisions that more effectively help you to realize your goals and live your values. Through interactive exercises and engaging thought experiments, this book helps you analyze key decisions you've made in the past and troubleshoot those you're making in the future. Whether you're picking investments, evaluating a job offer, or trying to figure out your romantic life, How to Decide is the key to happier outcomes and fewer regrets.
Dan Ariely, the New York Times bestselling author of Predictably Irrational, and illustrator Matt R. Trower present a playful graphic novel guide to better decision-making, based on the author’s groundbreaking research in behavioral economics, neuroscience, and psychology. The internationally renowned author Dan Ariely is known for his incisive investigations into the messy business of decision-making. Now, in Amazing Decisions, his unique perspective—informed by behavioral economics, neuroscience, and psychology—comes alive in the graphic form. The illustrator Matt R. Trower’s playful and expressive artwork captures the lessons of Ariely’s groundbreaking research as they explore the essential question: How can we make better decisions? Amazing Decisions follows the narrator, Adam, as he faces the daily barrage of choices and deliberations. He juggles two overlapping—and often contradictory—sets of norms: social norms and market norms. These norms inform our thinking in ways we often don’t notice, just as Adam is shadowed by the “market fairy” and the “social fairy,” each compelling him to act in certain ways. Good decision-making, Ariely argues, requires us to identify and evaluate the forces at play under different circumstances, leading to an optimal outcome. Amazing Decisions is a fascinating and entertaining guide to developing skills that will prove invaluable in personal and professional life.
William and Zera were childhood sweethearts who got married after high school. That’s where the joy in their lives ended! William was off to fight in Vietnam, in service to his country that asked thousands of young men to give up their lifestyles to become soldiers. Like so many other families, William and Zera’s lives were uprooted and changed forever. Torn apart by the war, they tried to hold on as best they could. When news came to Zera of William’s death, nothing could repair the pain she felt. Time seems to heal all wounds and soon Zera met Steve. Although she felt uneasy about it, Zera began dating Steve and they were married. Many years passed before Zera got the shock of her life. One day, there was a phone call, then a visit. When Zera opened her door, of course who should be standing there but William! Zera couldn’t believe it. Neither could Zera’s current husband, Steve, who actually served with William in the war. Zera was forced to make “a hard decision.” Who to continue her life with? Could you make such a choice? So, who does Zera choose? And what shocking conclusion does the author keep hidden until the very end? The book is a tribute to the spirit and strength of every human being and what makes people do the things they do. There is something with which every reader will be able to identify. The book combines love, war, loss, family, friendship, death and all of the elements of daily life that anyone could humanly experience.
Hard Decisions Made Easy' sets out effective and practical ways to tackle the twin challenges of: balancing non-financial and financial outcomes, and getting stakeholders on board.
MAKING HARD DECISIONS WITH DECISIONTOOLS® is a special version of Bob Clemen's best-selling text, MAKING HARD DECISIONS. This straight-forward book teaches the fundamental ideas of decision analysis, without an overly technical explanation of the mathematics used in management science. This new version incorporates and implements the powerful DecisionTools® by Palisade Corporation, the world's leading toolkit for risk and decision analysis. At the end of each chapter, topics are illustrated with step-by-step instructions for DecisionTools®. This new version makes the text more useful and relevant to students to business and engineering.
How to Resolve the Really Hard Problems Every manager makes tough calls—it comes with the job. And the hardest decisions are the “gray areas”—situations where you and your team have worked hard to find an answer, you’ve done the best analysis you can, and you still don’t know what to do. But you have to make a decision. You have to choose, commit, act, and live with the consequences and persuade others to follow your lead. Gray areas test your skills as a manager, your judgment, and even your humanity. How do you get these decisions right? In Managing in the Gray, Joseph Badaracco offers a powerful, practical, and even radical way to resolve these problems. Picking up where conventional tools of analysis leave off, this book provides tools for judgment in the form of five revealing questions. Asking yourself these five questions provides a simple yet profound way to broaden your thinking, sharpen your judgment, and develop a fresh perspective. What makes these questions so valuable is that they have truly stood the test of time—they’ve guided countless men and women, across many centuries and cultures, to resolve the hardest questions of work, responsibility, and life. You can use the five-question framework on your own or with others on your team to help you cut through complexities, understand critical trade-offs, and develop workable solutions for even the grayest issues.
Drawing insights from philosophy, psychology, literature, and theology, a longtime executive business coach explores how and why we make the decisions we do What is it that makes some of us better—or worse—than others at committing to a choice? What are the forces that hold us back, and how can we successfully overcome them? Every facet of our lives depends on the decisions we make. Yet, how often do we pause to reflect on our ability to make the best and smartest choices? The key is how we confront and refine the decision-making process. Here, Joseph Bikart explores the intricacies of decision making, challenging us to understand why we make the choices we do. He explores how the true power of decisions, especially the toughest among them, help us to face our fears and may in turn change how we think about ourselves. Breaking his study into four clear parts and short practical essays, Bikart presents a lively and compelling exploration of the process of decision making. He covers: • Indecision, Indecision: What makes us indecisive? What holds us back and why? • Where Art Thou?: How and where we get stuck and the importance of relaxing one's grip. • The Momentum of Decisiveness: Keeping our focus and proactivity. • The Deciding Mind: Making our smartest choices. Drawing from such different fields as philosophy, psychology, neurology, literature, art history and theology, The Art of Decision Making takes us on a journey from the depths of procrastination to the elation of decision making. Presenting a fresh perspective on what to do at the proverbial fork in the road, Bikart's unique philosophy is insightful, thought provoking, and potentially life-changing.
