Macroeconomic Fluctuations in Sub-Saharan Africa
Macroeconomic Fluctuations in Sub-Saharan Africa

Author: Mr.Alexander W. Hoffmaister

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 1997-07-01

Total Pages: 31

ISBN-13: 1451954743

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The sources of macroeconomic fluctuations in sub–Saharan African are examined by comparing the CFA franc countries with the non–CFA franc countries. External shocks, especially terms of trade shocks, appear to have a greater influence on fluctuations of output and the real exchange rate in CFA franc countries. This result does not appear to be associated with differences in the economic structure but may reflect the fixed exchange rate regime, which does not (partially) buffer these countries from external shocks. Macroeconomic fluctuations in non–CFA franc countries are similar to those in other developing countries, particularly in Latin America.

Economic Fluctuations in Sub-Saharan Africa
Economic Fluctuations in Sub-Saharan Africa

Author: Mr.Giovanni Melina

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2019-01-22

Total Pages: 32

ISBN-13: 1484394534

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We compare business cycle fluctuations in Sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries vis-à-vis the rest of the world. Our main results are as follows: (i) African economies stand out by their macroeconomic volatility, which is is reflected in the volatility of output and other macro variables; (ii) inflation and output tend to be negatively correlated; (iii) unlike advanced economies and emerging markets (EMs), trade balances and current accounts are acyclical in SSA; (iv) the volatility of consumption and investment relative to GDP is larger than in other countries; (v) the cyclicality of consumption and investment is smaller than in advanced economies and EMs; (vi) there is little comovement between consumption and investment; (vii) consumption and investment are strongly positively correlated with imports.

The Exchange Rate System and Macroeconomic Fluctuations in Sub-Saharan Africa
The Exchange Rate System and Macroeconomic Fluctuations in Sub-Saharan Africa

Author: Yaya Sissoko

Publisher:

Published: 2006

Total Pages:

ISBN-13:

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In this paper, we investigate the sources of macroeconomic fluctuations in Sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries with particular attention to the exchange rate system. We use a structural Vector Autoregression (VAR) model with limited capital mobility and long run restrictions to identify the shocks. Supply and terms of trade shocks tend to dominate output movements in the CFA and non-CFA countries alike. However, terms of trade shocks tend to influence the CFA zone to a greater extent and there seems to be a higher influence of demand shocks on output and the real exchange rates in the non-CFA countries.

Macroeconomic Shocks and Trade Flows within Sub-Saharan Africa
Macroeconomic Shocks and Trade Flows within Sub-Saharan Africa

Author: Mr.Tamim Bayoumi

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 1995-12-01

Total Pages: 34

ISBN-13: 1451927495

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Africa has more countries than any other continent, and hence the largest number of potential monetary and exchange rate arrangements. This paper looks at whether the existing highly fractured monetary arrangements in Sub-Saharan Africa correspond to what might be expected from the theory of optimum currency areas. This is done by analyzing both the size and correlation of real disturbances across countries and the level of intra-regional trade. The results indicate little evidence that Sub-Saharan African countries would benefit in the near future from larger currency unions.

Economic Fluctuations in Su-Saharan Africa
Economic Fluctuations in Su-Saharan Africa

Author: Giovanni Melina

Publisher:

Published: 2018

Total Pages: 32

ISBN-13:

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We compare business cycle fluctuations in Sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries vis-à-vis the rest of the world. Our main results are as follows: (i) African economies stand out by their macroeconomic volatility, which is is reflected in the volatility of output and other macro variables; (ii) inflation and output tend to be negatively correlated; (iii) unlike advanced economies and emerging markets (EMs), trade balances and current accounts are acyclical in SSA; (iv) the volatility of consumption and investment relative to GDP is larger than in other countries; (v) the cyclicality of consumption and investment is smaller than in advanced economies and EMs; (vi) there is little comovement between consumption and investment; (vii)consumption and investment are strongly positively correlated with imports.

Stabilization and Structural Adjustment
Stabilization and Structural Adjustment

Author: Finn Tarp

Publisher: Routledge

Published: 2002-09-11

Total Pages: 233

ISBN-13: 1134891989

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This book reveals and examines the relevance of the macroeconomic theory and models behind recommendations for stabilization and structual adjustment. Alternaive analytical approaches are discusses. This is done on the basis of an up-to-date review of developments in sub-saharan Africa during the 1980's and within a common analytical framework.

On the Drivers of Inflation in Sub-Saharan Africa
On the Drivers of Inflation in Sub-Saharan Africa

Author: Anh D. M. Nguyen

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2015-08-05

Total Pages: 28

ISBN-13: 1513583018

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The perception that inflation dynamics in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) are driven by supply shocks implies a limited role for monetary policy in influencing inflation in the short run. SSA’s rapid growth, its integration with the global economy, changes in the policy frameworks, among others, in the last decade suggest that the drivers of inflation may have changed. We quantitatively analyze inflation dynamics in SSA using a Global VAR model, which incorporates trade and financial linkages among economies, as well as the role of regional and global demand and inflationary spillovers. We find that in the past 25 years, the main drivers of inflation have been domestic supply shocks and shocks to exchange rate and monetary variables; but that, in recent years, the contribution of these shocks to inflation has fallen. Domestic demand pressures as well as global shocks, and particularly shocks to output, however, have played a larger role in driving inflation over the last decade. We also show that country characteristics matter—the extent of oil and food imports, vulnerability to weather shocks, economic importance of agriculture, trade openness and policy regime, among others, help in explaining the role of shocks.

Effects of Macroeconomic Stabilityon Growth, Savings, and Investment in Sub-Saharan Africa
Effects of Macroeconomic Stabilityon Growth, Savings, and Investment in Sub-Saharan Africa

Author: Mr.Dhaneshwar Ghura

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 1994-08-01

Total Pages: 122

ISBN-13: 145185207X

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The analysis of this paper indicates that the unsatisfactory overall economic performance of sub-Saharan African countries during 1986–93 was due to inappropriate policies pursued by a number of countries. The countries that have pursued broadly appropriate adjustment policies have performed much better, achieving positive per capita GDP growth. The analysis is supported with an econometric investigation of the effects of macroeconomic policies, structural reforms, and exogenous factors on economic performance. The results indicate that progress in achieving macroeconomic stability and implementing structural reforms have been conducive to better growth, savings, and private investment.