Barnett presents the first in-depth analysis in English of the pioneer of long cycle analysis, N.D. Kondratiev (1892-1938), who was a key policy adviser to the Soviet government in the early part of the 1920s. Kondratiev developed a market-led industrialization strategy for the USSR, in direct opposition to Stalin's centrally-planned industrialization programme, and was the director of the Conjuncture Institute, a centre for the study of business cycles and forecasting between 1920 and 1928. It was within the Conjuncture Institute that Kondratiev developed his analysis of long cycles. Barnett covers all aspects of Kondratiev's work.
THE idea that the dynamics of economic life in the capitalistic social order is not of a simple and linear but rather of a complex and cyclical character is nowadays generally recognized. Science, however, has fallen far short of clarifying the nature and the types of these cyclical, wave-like movements. When in economics we speak of cycles, we generally mean seven to eleven year business cycles. But these seven to eleven year movements are obviously not the only type of economic cycles. The dynamics of economic life is in reality more complicated. In addition to the above-mentioned cycles, which we shall agree to call “intermediate,” the existence of still shorter waves of about three and one-half years’ length has recently been shown to be probable. But that is not all. There is, indeed, reason to assume the existence of long waves of an average length of about 50 years in the capitalistic economy, a fact which still further complicates the problem of economic dynamics.
I think this book is a great achievement. It is packed with useful information and thought-provoking analysis and discussion. The work on technological development is, especially, a very valuable original contribution to the work in this field. The book illuminates the technological trajectory so often ignored by economists, but which underlies Schumpeter s "clusters" of innovations, and the emphasis on trunk innovations and analysis of their role is of particular interest. Christopher Freeman, SPRU Science and Technology Policy Research, University of Sussex, UK and Maastricht University, The Netherlands This pathbreaking book addresses the economics of technological change as revealed by a unique methodology that uncovers the true nature of technological development. Masaaki Hirooka bases this new approach to the economics of technological change on the recognition of the nonlinear dynamic nature of innovation. In order to provide a richer understanding of technological development, the book focuses on the period of innovation prior to market launch, grounding the analysis within a distinct innovation paradigm. This is expressed using three logistic trajectories technology, development and diffusion which make it possible to interpret and better understand technology foresight, infrastructure formation, long business cycles and national innovation systems. The author emphasizes the importance of the timing of innovation commitment, knowledge transfer between and within these trajectories, and the evolutionary character of innovation. Those with an interest in economics, macroeconomics, technological change and evolutionary economics will find this book to be a highly stimulating and fascinating read.
Like so many of us, Margret Kopala lost a significant portion of her life savings in the stock market crash of 2008. Unlike us, however, she went on a long and intense financial odyssey to find out what caused the losses and what she could do to protect herself in the future. Armed with her skills as a journalist and public policy analyst, fueled by equal measures of fear and determination, and mentored by successful investment strategist and financial broadcaster John Budden, Kopala researched and wrote this magisterial analysis of how Russian economist Nikolai Kondratieff’s long-wave theory is playing out in what many today describe as a financial Winter. Along the way, she is introduced to financial experts familiar with Kondratieff scholarship. John Budden’s interviews in the book with Dean LeBaron, J. Anthony Boeckh, Ian Gordon, Larry Jeddeloh, Don Lindsey, the late Lord William Rees-Mogg, Jim Rogers, Eric Sprott, and Ronald-Peter Stöferle show how investors must put a new spin on asset allocation and security of their assets: like a dog that buries bones in different places, we would be advised to allocate our assets to different parts of the world – and to ensure that a good portion of those assets include gold, the only continuous basis of wealth across history and around the world. Kopala explores the global, national, and personal effects of: overconsumption; underproduction; energy and innovation; the printing of money to "save" the economy; competitive devaluations; deflation, reflation, and inflation; and war (the ultimate economic crisis). She documents those technologies that seeded previous New Economy Spring seasons -- from the era of canals to those of railroads, automobiles, and infotech -- and probes today’s innovations most likely to seed the Next New Economy that we desperately need if we are to escape the doldrums of the current financial Winter. With trenchant explanations of how individuals can achieve portfolio strength by first preserving capital then being vigilant about the financial effects of politics, economic theory, culture, and our own choices, The Dog Bone Portfolio is a gift to investors, policy-makers, and, ultimately, nations everywhere.
This book examines the interrelations between Russian and European economics from the early 19th century to the present. It analyzes how Western economic thinking, such as classical economics and the marginal revolution, influenced Russian economic thinking and how Western economic ideas were modified and adapted to better reflect the specific Russian circumstances of the time. Moreover, the contributions in this book show how these modified ideas also influenced Western economists at the end of the 19th century, when Russian economics had reached the stage of professionalism and joined the international discourse on the discipline. Written by an international selection of respected experts, this book provides an overview of the most influential Russian economists and covers a wide range of topics such as the marginal revolution, the specific influence of Marxism, the evolution of mathematics and statistics in Russia in the 1890s–1920s, and the unique experience of building a planned economy in the Soviet Union. It is intended for all scholars and students who are interested in the history of economic thought.
This book explores how successful the various tenets of economic thought have been in prognosticating or remedying economic crises. Examining key episodes in economic history, from famines in antiquity to present-day financial collapse, the author finds that several theories failed to cope with a crisis and lost their academic impact. The author also presents cases in which major theoretical innovations were achieved after the experience of a crisis as well as cases where a completely new theory was needed to explain and face the events. This book will appeal to researchers and scholars interested in understanding how theoretical developments in economics are affected by real-world economic crises.
The collapse of the Union of Soviet Socialist Republic at the end of the 1980’s was conceived as a victory for capitalist democracy. Here, Vincent Barnett provides the first comprehensive account of the historical development of Russian and Soviet economic thought across the nineteenth and twentieth centuries, and considers its future in the twenty-first century. Utilizing an extensive range of historical sources, Barnett examines the different strands of thought, including classical, neoclassical, historical, socialist, liberal and Marxian schools. He traces their influence, and the impact their ideas had on shaping policies. An excellent addition to the Routledge History of Economic Thought series, this book covers pre-1870, Tsarist economics, the late Tsarist period, the impact of the war, Bolshevik economics, Stalinist economics, Russian economics after 1940. Incorporating a detailed timeline of the most significant Russian economists work and analyzing the effects of historical discontinuities on the institutional structure of Russian economics as a discipline, Barnett delivers an essential text for postgraduates and professionals interested in economic history and the evolution of Russian economic thought.
This four-volume set contains a large selection of Kondratiev's work in translation. Kondratiev produced works on aspects of long waves, questions of methodology, economic dynamics, economic policy, and both the history of economic thought and economic history.
This book presents a new theory of market and capitalism, detailing its key moments and general logic. It is based on the distinction between two market types: the simple commodity market and the capitalist one. In contrast to what is usually uncritically accepted, disequilibrium and “imperfect competition” are admitted here to be a functional norm of the capitalist market. The book also shows that equilibrium and “perfect competition” are admitted to be a functional anomaly, with crises considered as the result of such an anomaly. It details the general principles and concrete measures of crisis-proof policies and behavior.
