Investigating the impact of climate change on agricultural production in eastern and southern African countries
Investigating the impact of climate change on agricultural production in eastern and southern African countries

Author: Belloumi, Mounir

Publisher: Intl Food Policy Res Inst

Published:

Total Pages: 26

ISBN-13:

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Climate change has been a significant issue since the end of the 20th century, and impacts a variety of economic sectors, primarily agriculture. The negative impacts of climate change on agricultural production are important because agriculture is closely linked to food security. Although they contribute the least to global pollution, it is estimated that African countries will be the most affected by climate variability. Our paper analyzes the impact of climate change on agricultural production in 11 Eastern and Southern African countries (ESA) during the period from 1961 to 2011 and estimates a panel data model for agricultural production using climate variables (e.g., annual precipitation and annual mean temperature) and economic factors (e.g., livelihood, fertilizer use, machinery, agricultural land, and labor) as explanatory variables.

West African Agriculture and Climate Change
West African Agriculture and Climate Change

Author: Abdulai Jalloh

Publisher: Intl Food Policy Res Inst

Published: 2013-01-01

Total Pages: 444

ISBN-13: 0896292045

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The first of three books in IFPRI's climate change in Africa series, West African Agriculture and Climate Change: A Comprehensive Analysis examines the food security threats facing 11 of the countries that make up West Africa -- Benin, Burkina Faso, Côte d'Ivoire, Ghana, Guinea, Liberia, Niger, Nigeria, Senegal, Sierra Leone, and Togo -- and explores how climate change will increase the efforts needed to achieve sustainable food security throughout the region. West Africa's population is expected to grow at least through mid-century. The region will also see income growth. Both will put increased pressure on the natural resources needed to produce food, and climate change makes the challenges greater. West Africa is already experiencing rising temperatures, shifting precipitation patterns, and increasing extreme events. Without attention to adaptation, the poor will suffer. Through the use of hundreds of scenario maps, models, figures, and detailed analysis, the editors and contributors of West African Agriculture and Climate Change present plausible future scenarios that combine economic and biophysical characteristics to explore the possible consequences for agriculture, food security, and resources management to 2050. They also offer recommendations to national governments and regional economic agencies already dealing with the vulnerabilities of climate change and deviations in environment. Decisionmakers and researchers will find West African Agriculture and Climate Change a vital tool for shaping policy and studying the various and likely consequences of climate change.

Climate change and agriculture in eastern and southern Africa: An updated assessment based on the latest global climate models
Climate change and agriculture in eastern and southern Africa: An updated assessment based on the latest global climate models

Author: Thomas, Timothy S.

Publisher: Intl Food Policy Res Inst

Published: 2024-02-27

Total Pages: 97

ISBN-13:

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In this paper we present analysis on the recent historical trend in agriculture in the Eastern and Southern Africa (ESA) region, along with analysis of recent historical trends in temperature and precipitation. We also present 5 climate models and describe the possible future climates associated with these. We use these climate models with crop models -- for seven crops -- and bioeconomic models to further assess the impact on agricultural productivity throughout the region and how the agricultural sector will transform through 2050. While we evaluate seven crops in detail, we note the key role that maize plays for the region, and we assess -- considering the regional and global impact of climate change -- how the role of maize will change over time and whether the change will be rapid enough to shift regional agriculture into a more vibrant sector. We find that while the relative importance of maize to farmers in the region will decline, out to 2050 maize will remain the dominant crop. Additional policies and investments will need to be implemented if the goal is to hasten the transition to higher value or more nutritious crops.

East African Agriculture and Climate Change
East African Agriculture and Climate Change

Author: Michael Waithaka

Publisher: Intl Food Policy Res Inst

Published: 2013

Total Pages: 434

ISBN-13: 0896292053

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The second of three books in IFPRI's climate change in Africa series, East African Agriculture and Climate Change: A Comprehensive Analysis examines the food security threats facing 10 of the countries that make up east and central Africa - Burundi, Democratic Republic of Congo, Eritrea, Kenya, Madagascar, Rwanda, Sudan, Tanzania, and Uganda - and explores how climate change will increase the efforts needed to achieve sustainable food security throughout the region. East Africa's populations is expected to grow at least through mid-century. The region will also see income growth. Both will put increased pressure on the natural resources needed to produce food, and climate change makes the challenges greater. East Africa is already experiencing rising temperatures, shifting precipitation patterns, and increasing extreme events. Without attention to adaptation, the poor will suffer.

Managing a Changing Climate in Africa
Managing a Changing Climate in Africa

Author: Pius Z. Yanda

Publisher: African Books Collective

Published: 2011

Total Pages: 204

ISBN-13: 9987080898

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There is sufficient evidence to support the fact that climate change is occurring and that this is set to accelerate. While some scholars argue that climate change is largely due to natural changes, others postulate that anthropogenic factors are the major cause. Climate change associated with increasing levels of carbon dioxide is likely to affect developed and developing countries differentially, with major vulnerabilities occurring in low-latitude regions. This book presents research findings and case studies with the endeavour to inform policies geared towards addressing problems emanating from these changes. Climate variability raises concerns over the future of agriculture, conditions of land and water availability. Therefore, climate change amplifies many economic and social risks, as well as deterioration of the environment. At the same time, non-climatic risk factors such as economic instability, trade liberalization, conflicts and poor governance all inflict upon vulnerable communities. Key discussions in this title rest on: Climate Change in Africa: its impact on rural communities, vulnerability and adaptation to climate change, financial requirements of reducing green house gases, technological transfer and natural resources; Case Studies of Vulnerability to Climate Change and Variability in Eastern and Southern Africa: experiences of impacts and adaptation to extreme events, concrete experiences from farmers and crop production adaptation; and Challenges and Opportunities to Climate Change Adaptation: factors that influence choice of response strategies, challenges and opportunities for ecosystem-based approaches; and challenges and opportunities from the use of bio-fuels as a mitigation measure to climate change.

The Impact of Climate Change on African Agriculture
The Impact of Climate Change on African Agriculture

Author: David Maddison

Publisher: World Bank Publications

Published: 2007

Total Pages: 25

ISBN-13:

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Abstract: This paper uses the Ricardian approach to examine how farmers in 11 countries in Africa have adapted to existing climatic conditions. It then estimates the effects of predicted changes in climate while accounting for whatever farmer adaptation might occur. This study differs from earlier ones by using farmers' own perceptions of the value of their land. Previous research, by contrast, has relied on either observed sale prices or net revenues, sometimes aggregated over geographically large tracts of terrain. The study also makes use of high resolution data describing soil quality and runoff. Furthermore, it tackles the challenges involved in modeling the effect of climate on agriculture in a study that includes countries in the northern and southern hemispheres, as well as the tropics. The study confirms that African agriculture is particularly vulnerable to climate change. Even with perfect adaptation, regional climate change by 2050 is predicted to entail production losses of 19.9 percent for Burkina Faso and 30.5 percent for Niger. By contrast, countries such as Ethiopia and South Africa are hardly affected at all, suffering productivity losses of only 1.3 percent and 3 percent, respectively. The study also confirms the importance of water supplies as measured by runoff, which, being affected by both temperature and precipitation, may itself be highly sensitive to climate change.

Southern African Agriculture and Climate Change
Southern African Agriculture and Climate Change

Author: Sepo Hachigonta

Publisher: Intl Food Policy Res Inst

Published: 2013-09-03

Total Pages: 370

ISBN-13: 0896292088

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Southern African Agriculture and Climate Change: A Comprehensive Analysis examines the food security threats facing eight of the countries that make up southern Africa — Botswana, Lesotho, Malawi, Mozambique, South Africa, Swaziland, Zambia, and Zimbabwe — and explores how climate change will increase the efforts needed to achieve sustainable food security throughout the region. Southern Africa’s population is expected to grow at least through mid-century. The region will also see income growth. Both will put increased pressure on the natural resources needed to produce food, and climate change makes the challenges greater. Southern Africa is already experiencing rising temperatures, shifting precipitation patterns, and increasing extreme events. Without attention to adaptation, the poor will suffer. Through the use of hundreds of scenario maps, models, figures, and detailed analysis, the editors and contributors of Southern African Agriculture and Climate Change present plausible future scenarios that combine economic and biophysical characteristics to explore the possible consequences for agriculture, food security, and resources management to 2050. They also offer recommendations to national governments and regional economic agencies already dealing with the vulnerabilities of climate change and deviations in environment. Decisionmakers and researchers will find Southern African Agriculture and Climate Change a vital tool for shaping policy and studying the various and likely consequences of climate change.

Sustainable Intensification to Advance Food Security and Enhance Climate Resilience in Africa
Sustainable Intensification to Advance Food Security and Enhance Climate Resilience in Africa

Author: Rattan Lal

Publisher: Springer

Published: 2014-10-10

Total Pages: 657

ISBN-13: 3319093606

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This 32-chapter volume represents the core of several oral and poster presentations made at the conference. In addition to Introduction and Conclusion sections, the book is thematically divided into 7 sections, namely, 1) Land Use and Farming Systems, 2) Effects of Climate Change on Crop Yield, 3) Soil Nutrient and Water Management for Carbon Sequestration, 4) Rehabilitation of Degraded Lands through Forestry and Agroforestry, 5) Management of Animal Production for Greenhouse Gas Emissions, 6) Smallholder Adaptation to Climate Change, and 7) Economic, Social and Policy Issues. It addresses these themes in the context of sustainable intensification (SI). It implies increasing agronomic production from the existing land while improving/restoring its quality and decreasing the C or environmental footprint. Simply put, SI means producing more from less.

The Impacts of Climate Change on Regional Water Resources and Agriculture in Africa
The Impacts of Climate Change on Regional Water Resources and Agriculture in Africa

Author: Kenneth M. Strzepek

Publisher: World Bank Publications

Published: 2007

Total Pages: 68

ISBN-13:

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This paper summarizes the methods and findings of the hydrological assessment component of the project studying likely impacts of climate change on water resources and agriculture in Africa. The first phase of the study used a version of a conceptual rainfall-runoff model called WatBal (Water Balance) applied to gridded data to simulate changes in soil moisture and runoff across the whole continent of Africa rather than to any particular catchment or water resource system. The model inputs were the climate variables of the 1961-90 climatology and physiological parameters (such as soil properties and land use) derived from global datasets for each of the 0.5 degree latitude/longitude cells across the continent. The primary model output comprised a time series (monthly time step) of simulated runoff for all the grid cells for each of the districts in the countries of interest. The second phase of the study extended the hydrology analyses to update the above hydroclimatic series to the year 2000 using updated input data. To ascertain the possible impacts of climate change within the districts being investigated this study used synthetic or GCM-based climate change scenarios as input to the WatBal model. The WatBal model was used to determine the impact of these different scenarios on runoff and actual evaporation and hence flow in the districts under study. The generated hydroclimatic series and scenario analyses were used as inputs into various Ricardian regressions in other analyses measuring likely impacts of climate change on the agricultural economies of Africa.

Climate Change and Agriculture in Africa
Climate Change and Agriculture in Africa

Author: Ariel Dinar

Publisher: Routledge

Published: 2012-05-16

Total Pages: 223

ISBN-13: 113656974X

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'This is a well researched, thorough and impressive work on climate change and agriculture in Africa. I recommend it to students, researchers and practitioners working on climate change issues' Jabavu Clifford Nkomo, senior programme specialist, IDRC This landmark book encompasses a comprehensive assessment of the potential economic impacts of future climate change, and the value of adaptation measures in Africa for different zones, regions, countries and farm types. Researchers developed and applied multiple analytical procedures to assess quantitatively how climate affects current agricultural systems in Africa, enabling them to predict how these systems may be affected in the future by climate change under various global warming scenarios, and suggesting what role adaptation could play. The study is the first to combine spatially referenced household survey data with climatic data at both national and international levels. This book provides vital knowledge about the impacts of climate change on Africa, serving as a guide to policy intervention strategies and investment in adaptation measures. It makes a major contribution to the analysis of climate change impacts and developing adaptation strategies, especially in the highly vulnerable farming communities in the developing world. Published with CEEPA and supported by the World Bank.