North Korea’s brinkmanship diplomacy has continued to disturb the world with its seemingly reckless missile testing, as the country’s leader, Kim Jong-Il, is rumored to be terminally ill with pancreatic cancer. North Korea appears to be in a state of serious internal crisis not only because its dictatorial system, albeit skillful and ruthless leadership, is inherently unstable, if not skillful and ruthless leadership, but also because the main pillar of Kim Jong-Il’s legitimacy is rapidly eroding due to both mass starvations and the exodus of grassroots and mass exodus of the North Korean people into nearby regions. The main objective of this book is to explore the probability of North Korea’s implosion, and second to search for a feasible way for Korean reuni?cation as a possible consequence of a big bang event on the peninsula. The geopolitics of the Korean Peninsula is historically very complicated as Korea is bordered and s- rounded by four big powers; namely, China, Russia, Japan, and the United States. Each country has its own varying degrees of political, economic, and military stakes with respect to the Korean Peninsula. Thus, the Land of the Morning Calm has remained divided since 1945 mainly as a result of the domain war among these super powers. As the North nears a turning point, however, there is a new possibility for the two Koreas to reunite if the international environments work in their favor, and if both countries are well prepared to assume reuni?cation.
The current research aims to provide analytical understandings on the costs and benefits of Korean unification from political, social, and economic aspects. Upon the two years of earlier works, we constructed an analytical model encompassing both spatial and temporal dimensions of the unification process, and built comprehensive architecture, ‘the Guiding Type of Unification.’ Based on this model, we have broaden the scope of the research by collecting diverse perspectives from the worldwide experts of the leading countries. We expect to observe the global trends of world governance. Indeed, the increasing importance of Group of Twenty (G‐20) countries in managing global problems reflects both political and social aspects of the changes occurring in global governance. Another reason for this would be South Korea’s diversified international relations in the recent years. Hence, it seems necessary to take a closer look on the international dimensions of Korean unification. In this vein, we requested thirteen experts of the leading countries to express their opinions on Korean unification. In order to collect international perspectives in a coordinated manner, scholars were provided with a guideline to include their perspectives on the expected effects of Korean Unification and the potential roles of their countries during and after the process. Participants were also asked to present candid implications for Korean unification. Argentina, whose food supply is abundant, laid stress on providing assistance in terms of food security during the unification. Australia, who has special concerns in Asian security, suggested a comprehensive support not only as a mediator but also as one of the U.S. alliance. Due to remote distance to Asia, Brazil is relatively less affected by the unification. Brazil, however, expressed that it has a keen interest in transmission of its experience regarding nuclear issues with Argentina. Similar to Brazil’s stance, the effects of the unification influence is indirect to Canada. Nevertheless, Canada could play a role in providing humanitarian assistance, and could be a potential destination for North Korean refugee resettlement. France, one of the most influential members in the European Union and the United Nations, made a suggestion to promote institution building in East Asia that can promote stability in the region. Germany, the only country who had experienced unification, presented its interest in participating actively in the process of Korean unification through public and private sectors. India assumed that the unification of Korea leads to the denuclearization of the peninsula, and would see this as a positive sign for stability of the region, since it would limit or end North Korea’s nuclear weapon transmits with Pakistan. Indonesia could contribute to regional peace and stability through ASEAN and its extensions as South Korea can call upon Indonesia to engage in the peace process. Italy, who especially pointed out the role of European Union as a whole, is well-poised to contribute to economic and social development with North Korea through technical assistance. Mexico can, and expressed its willingness to play an active role in the unification process through international organizations. South Africa, who had been successful in national reconciliation and denuclearization, is very likely to provide its experience and can be a strong voice for the NPT and arms control in the international society. Advocating South Korea’s policy in Korean unification, Turkey explicitly mentioned that it will side with Seoul if there is a possible conflict in the peninsula. The author emphasized that the international community must be well-informed on how Korean unification will take place. Last but not least, the United Kingdom author suggested that Koreans will have to resolve emotional conflicts for reconciliation. Considering how both Koreas have dealt educational matters concerning the division of the peninsula, this may face a major challenge in the future generation. Thirteen countries’ diversely manifested positions on the unifying process are indicative of perceptual change that the issue of Korean unification is no longer a regional issue, but an international one, in which multiple actors have their own stakes within. Upon the previously suggested implications, we categorized the countries into three groups: bystanders, supporters, and interveners. This categorization reflects the assertiveness of each country, or coercive level of each country’s assistance instrumented towards the two Koreas during the unifying process. In the conclusion, based on our final analysis, we provided recommendations for the policy makers. First, diversified diplomacy creates an amicable international environment for unification policies beyond the power politics of the Four Powers. Second, activation of leading countries’ roles is strategically advantageous to activate the meaningful roles of these leading countries to minimize the Four Powers’ concerns. Third, emphasizing the formation of multilateral system would provide leading countries with an additional motivation to actively participate in the unification process. Furthermore, multilateral efforts to achieve Korean unification are also expected to contribute to the furtherance of democratic elements in the dynamics of international relations as a whole. Fourth, it is now high time for us to conduct more public diplomacy by devising new and creative methodologies. The global research project of this kind could be one of the most effective public diplomatic tools. Lastly, the unification between two Koreas can no longer be considered as a regional issue within Northeast Asia since others, including the leading countries, conceive their national interests along the process of unification on the Korean peninsula in diverse ways. Overall, thirteen countries’ recommendations underline the significance of collective efforts in addressing the unification process and suggest South Korea to learn lessons from the experience that they have undergone in the past. Keywords: Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, France, Germany, India, Indonesia, Italy, Mexico, South Africa, Turkey, United Kingdom, Expectation, Role, Effect ------------- CONTENTS ------------- Acknowledgments Abstract Ⅰ. INTRODUCTION Ⅱ. EFFECTS AND ROLES 1. Argentina 2. Australia 3. Brazil 4. Canada 5. France 6. Germany 7. India 8. Indonesia 9. Italy 10. Mexico 11. South Africa 12. Turkey 13. United Kingdom Ⅲ. ANALYSIS AND EVALUATION 1. Expected Effect 2. Potential Roles 3. Classification of Leading Countries Ⅳ. CONCLUSION References Recent Publications
In 1991 South Korea, along with North Korea, was made an official member of the UN. Using international relations theory, this book begins by looking at the struggle and eventual impact of the membership on the two countries post division in 1948. It investigates the predicted outcomes prior to joining, and whether these outcomes have come to fruition nationally and on a global scale. Following this, there is focus on South Korea's ability to exert an influence on international decision making in world-politics, and how this affected inter-Korean relations. Importantly, analysis looks at how participation in the Security Council (1996-1997 and 2013-2014) further extended the country's capabilities to adopt resolutions, including those affecting North Korea's missile and nuclear programmes and human rights record. South Korea's participation in peacekeeping operations, Koreans appointed to high positions within the UN system and payments of the UN budget are also investigated. The study concludes with discussion of the role of the UN as a forum for international contacts and for providing knowledge otherwise unavailable to non-members.South Korea in the United Nations is unique in its analysis of South Korea's relations with the UN prior to and, above all, after 1991, thereby enhancing understanding of the significance of its UN membership as well as the importance of being a UN member. Suitable for scholars in Korean studies, international relations and East Asian politics, it can also be used as a reference work by policy-makers in the region, and for students and professionals working within the UN system.
This monograph looks at the potential impact a unified Korea might have upon the regional and global competition. Although numerous concerns surround the peninsula's future, one might ask two primary questions in regard to unification and the balance of power: "What would unification look like?" and "What strategic impact would a unified Korea have on regional and global international relations?" Complicating this issue is the rising power of China and competing United States interests in the region. The regional dynamics and history of the Korean Peninsula provide insight into how South Korea, North Korea, and other nations in the region have behaved to meet their national interests in similar situations. This monograph will offer answers by using international relation theories to propose that if unification occurs, it will result in an absorption unification model, with Korea hedging its alliances with the United States and China in order to meet its national interests.This compilation also includes a reproduction of the 2019 Worldwide Threat Assessment of the U.S. Intelligence Community.Illustrating its strategic importance in the international arena, the Korean Peninsula touts a history of occasionally playing center stage as global powers have vied for economic, military, and political leverage. With the division of the peninsula after World War II, its strategic importance and potential for conflict has magnified. This division sought to balance interests in the region by limiting the geographic advantage of any regional power gaining the peninsula's sole control. Although the division has produced a certain level of stability, maintaining this constancy has grown difficult, considering that a primary goal of both North and South Korea focuses on reunification. Politically, the Korean Peninsula sits at the "crossroads" of the Pacific powers of Russia, China, Japan, and the United States, which further compounds the peninsula's complexity for regional security interests. Economically, the Korean Peninsula plays a vital role in the Asia-Pacific region, which includes "four of the ten largest economies in the world." Specifically, China has exhibited remarkable growth, rising to dominance in the region and as a global competitor with the United States. The evolution of the two Koreas over recent decades and the potential for unification poses new and old questions as great power competition focuses once again on the Asia-Pacific region. Although numerous concerns surround the peninsula's future, one might ask two primary questions in regard to unification and the balance of power: "What would unification look like?" and "What strategic impact would a unified Korea have on regional and global international relations?" This monograph will offer answers by using international relation theories to propose that if unification occurs, it will result in an absorption unification model, with Korea hedging its alliances with the United States and China in order to meet its national interests.
On the Korean peninsula, there exist two sovereign states—the Republic of Korea (ROK or South Korea) and the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK or North Korea)—both of whom hold separate membership at the United Nations. This book discusses the construction of "one Korea" and highlights the potential benefits of unification for the Koreans and the international community. Arguing that Korean unification is intrinsically international in nature, the authors outline how the process and outcome would impact upon the policies of the four major powers—the U.S., China, Russia, and Japan. In addition, the authors highlight the possible far-reaching repercussions of unification on the political and economic dynamics of Northeast Asia. Making a case for the two Koreas and interested powers to plan and orchestrate their acts for sustained peace and gradual unification on the Korean peninsula, this book examines the Korean question and the related issue of peace building in Northeast Asia from a global perspective. It will be of interest to students and scholars researching politics and international relations.
In light of growing discussion about the future of the Korean peninsula, the CSIS Korea Chair held a major conference featuring senior-level policy and scholarly discussions on the topic of unification, and this report provides a record of that conference. It was a landmark event addressing economic, business, political, and security opportunities of unification, and it was cohosted with the National Research Council for Economics, Humanities and Social Sciences (NRCS) of the Republic of Korea and a consortium of other institutions.
The aim of this project is to research the necessity of international cooperation on Korean unification in legal terms as South Korea’s Unification Policy and how issues of the Korean Peninsula have been dealt with in the international framework. Since this is the second year of a five-year project, the conceptual aspect requires clarification in the overall aspect and this requires a multidisciplinary approach. But the main focus remains the legal aspect, international law, in particular. This study assumes that unification will be a gradual process, generally in three stages: (1) inter-Korean cooperation, (2) negotiation for inter-Korean unification (be it North Korea’s collapse, or actual inter-Korean negotiation for unification, this stage includes any inter-Korean negotiation for unification and international negotiation formula, such as Six Party Talks, etc.), and (3) post-unification integration. The study begins with the understanding that South Korea needs to be prepared for legal matters potentially arising in these processes. The project this year, in particular, deals with the legal issues that should be dealt with in the first and second stages. The scope of the papers in this project covers four main areas. The first is time span. The research for this project covers the 19th century to the present and draws future-oriented implications, but the main focus is on current issues. The second is in regard to approaches. The study deals with three main approaches: historical, political, and legal, but for purposes of this project, the main focus is on the legal aspect. The third concerns the issues addressed. These are the nuclear issue, the military issue, inter-Korean cooperation issues, and the human rights issue. Finally, the scope of actors considered includes South and North Korea, neighboring countries (the U.S., China, Japan, and Russia), and international organizations (e.g., UN, WFP, WHO, etc.). The papers included here are organized into three main sections. The first concerns the meaning of Korean unification and the context of international cooperation. Park Jong-Chul provides a general overview of the Park Geun-Hye administration’s North Korea and unification policy, referred to as “Trustpolitik,” and the trust-building process on the Korean Peninsula, as well as the need for international cooperation. Sue Mi Terry examines the U.S. and China’s perspective on the issues laid out above. She explores areas where U.S.-China interests converge and diverge and whether strategic cooperation and coordination between the two nations are possible in the case of Korean unification. The second section presents historical and legal perspectives related to the situation on the Korean peninsula. Charles K. Armstrong’s work on the historical perspective is divided into three sections chronologically: (1) the struggle of 19th Century Korea to become a modern sovereign state and its failure with the advent of colonial rule, (2) war leading to the division of the Korean Peninsula, and (3) the inter-Korean situation based on de facto recognition (as opposed to de jure) as a political entity arising out of the 1972 Joint Communiqué and the “special relationship” from then on. Next, Roh Jeong-Ho provides a legal approach to the question of inter-Korean relations and the debate on unification by dividing the period from 1876 to the present day into five distinct periods and examining the limitations to the legal order and the evolution of world order as they pertain to Korea. Finally, Leon V. Sigal discusses how international law and institutions might improve South Korean security and facilitate inter-Korean reconciliation with special attention to confidence-building in the West Sea. The third section examines in greater detail the legal aspects of Inter-Korean Cooperation and human rights. Regarding human rights, it is important to consider the link between inter-Korean cooperation and human rights. The improvement of human rights and people’s livelihood in North Korea, which is part of the ultimate goal of unification, can be achieved by inter-Korean cooperation. Inter-Korean cooperation leads to inducing change in North Korea, which then logically leads to the improvement of human rights in North Korea. Lee Hyo-Won focuses on the legal matters regarding the establishment of a DMZ World Peace Park. Soung Jea-Hyen looks at the legal matters regarding the internationalization of the Gaeseong Industrial Complex. Cho Jung-Hyun provides an analysis of the contents and legal implications of the recent outcome of the UN Commission of Inquiry (COI) on Human Rights in the DPRK, such as the meaning of stating “crimes against humanity,” the notion of Responsibility to Protect (R2P) in respect to North Korea, and transitional justice in the possible post-unification stage. Finally, David Hawk tracks North Korean human rights developments in the post-COI period. Preface/ Jong-Chul Park and Jeong-Ho Roh I. The Meaning of Korean Unification in the Context of International Cooperation South Korea’s TrustPolitik and International Cooperation.....1 South Korea’s TrustPolitik and International Cooperation/ Jong-Chul Park.....3 U.S.-China Rivalry and the Unification of the Korean Peninsula/ Sue Mi Terry.....31 II. The Situation on the Korean Peninsula: Historical and Legal Perspectives .....59 An Unfinished Project: Challenges and Struggles of Korea to Become a Modern Sovereign Nation-State/ Charles K. Armstrong.....61 The Limits of Legal Order in an Evolving World Order on the Korean Peninsula/ Jeong-Ho Roh.....89 Legal Approaches to Korean Security in the Early Stages of Unification: The Armistice Agreement and the NLL/ Leon V. Sigal.....119 III. Legal Aspects of Inter-Korean Cooperation and Human Rights.....145 Legal Perspective and International Cooperation on World Peace Park in DMZ between South and North Korea / Hyo-Won Lee.....147 Plan for the Internationalization of the Kaesong Industrial Region and the Resolution of Its Commercial Disputes/ Jea-Hyen Soung.....169 The Report of the UN Commission of Inquiry (COI) on North Korean Human Rights: Some International Legal Analyses/ Jung-Hyun Cho.....195 North Korea’s Response to the UN Commission of Inquiry (COI) Report on the Situation of Human Rights in the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea/ David Hawk.....213 Contributors.....251
This book analyzes the cost of division that the four powers must bear as well as the benefits of nification they will acquire. There has been much research on the same topic, but mostly done from the perspective of Korean scholars. However, this book provides perspectives of scholars from each of the four states as well as Asia-Pacific region. This book is part of an ongoing effort by KINU to strengthen South Korea’s unification diplomacy. This book is divided into 10 chapters. Chapter 1-8 analyze the cost of division and the benefits of unification from the security and economic perspective of the United States, Japan, China, and Russia. Chapter 9 and 10 look at the bigger picture by discussing the division cost and benefits of unification from the standpoint of the Asia-Pacific region as a whole. Based on the analyses of the chapters, the conclusion chapter examines the similarities and differences of the division cost that the four powers must bear as well as the benefits they will obtain. Introduction The Costs of Division and the Benefits of Unification for the Four Northeast Asian Powers/ Kook-Shin Kim, Jae-Jeok Park Chapter 1 The Costs of Korean Division and the Benefits of Korean Unification for U.S. National Security/ Kongdan Katy Oh Chapter 2 Economic Implications for the United States of the Divided Korean Peninsula/ William B. Brown Chapter 3 Korean Peninsula Division/Unification and China : From the Security Perspective of China/ Ming Liu Chapter 4 Korean Peninsula Division/Unification and China : From the Economic Perspective of China/ Jiyoung Zheng,Jianzhong Jiang Chapter 5 Korean Peninsula Division/Unification : From the Security Perspective of Japan/ Tomohiko Satake Chapter 6 Costs and Benefits of Korean Unification for Japan : Political and Economic Perspectives/ Sachio Nakato Chapter 7 Korean Peninsula Division/Unification and Russia : From the Security Perspective of Russia/ Leonid Petrov Chapter 8 Korean Peninsula Division/Unification and Russia : From the Economic Perspective of Russia/ Alexander Fedorovskiy Chapter 9 Korean Peninsula Division/Unification and Security Order in the Asia-Pacific Region/ Thomas S. Wilkins Chapter 10 Korean Peninsula Unification : Opportunities and Challenges to Asia-Pacific Economies/ Jeffrey Robertson
