A research memorandum provides an overview of progress being made in developing quantitative international affairs indicators for application in Department of Defense decision-making. The goal of this work is to build a selective yet comprehensive data base which will permit the systematic description, in a quantitative form, of developments occurring within and between foreign nations. (Modified author abstract).
The end of the Cold War radically changed both classic policies of national and collective security and international strategies for conflict management and the stabilization of precarious states. The threat of Islamic extremism and the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq have shattered any illusions of a peace dividend and have given strategies against state failure a new urgency. The growing awareness of the complex and intertwined problems of human security, socioeconomic underdevelopment and governance deficits as root causes of precarious statehood made policy coherence the new mantra for Western national governments and international organizations. Henceforth, it was envisaged to relinquish the existing division between diplomacy, development and defense in favour of the new comprehensive "3D"-approach. This book is an attempt to assess the extent to which both international organizations and states have lived up to the new insights of the "3D" continuum and adopted strategies corresponding institutional settings and policy instruments to provide the necessary culture of policy coherence for tackling the problems of precarious statehood and the international security challenges those states pose. On the national level, the cases studied are the United States, the United Kingdom, Germany and the Netherlands. On the international level, the United Nations and the European Union were examined. It is hoped, that the lessons learned from whole-of-government approaches and the recommendations drawn from this survey will help both governments and international organizations to excel in dealing with precarious states, thereby making policy coherence a reality in risk assessment, decision-making and policy implementation.
The early warning intelligence function has traditionally involved the exclusive use of quantitative military analysis and qualitative political analysis as means to assess environmental threats. The present study explores the notion that quantitative political analysis is a useful and needed parallel component to military and qualitative political analyses. The central problem of this experiment is to demonstrate the value of quantitative political analysis by applying quantitative political indicators to the task of early warning. The application of quantitative political indicators to two international crises demonstrates that the technology does improve the analyst's ability to sense changes in political trends. This improved ability results, in spite of the fact that the data base used is restricted to international events. The exact intent of a nation to engage in hostile activities often can be inferred only from political changes manifest in the international political arena. In such cases, quantitative political indicators provide a collection of 'tip-off' signals that help the analyst monitor these intents. Quantitative political indicators may be used to compare and display many factors simultaneously. Quantitative indicators, however, only assist the estimator indirectly. Research is in progress to improve the uses of quantitative indicators to this end. (Author).
It is still easy to underestimate how much the collapse of the Soviet Union and the end of the Cold War?--and then the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001?--transformed the task of American foreign and defense policymaking. In place of predictability (if a sometimes terrifying predictability), the world is now very unpredictable. In place of a single overriding threat and benchmark by which all else could be measured, a number of possible threats have arisen, not all of them states. In place of force-on-force engagements, U.S. defense planners have to assume "asymmetric" threats?--ways not to defeat U.S. power but to render it irrelevant. This book frames the challenges for defense policy that the transformed world engenders, and it sketches new tools for dealing with those challenges?--from new techniques in modeling and gaming, to planning based on capabilities rather than threats, to personnel planning and making use of "best practices" from the private sector.
Contents: General Assessment of Research Accomplished and Findings for FY 1974, Prospects for a Major Change in Japanese Military Policy, A Trend Method for Forecasting Policy Style, The Utility of Issue Indicators, The Application of Markov Chain Analysis to the Czech Crisis of 1968, Comparison of Two Events Data Sources, and Codebook for Defense Events Coding Scheme for Domestic and International Events.
From the Mind to the Feet: Assessing the Perception-to-Intentto- Action Dynamic is an interagency, multidisciplinary collection of 12 essays addressing operational and academic perspectives on the elusive concept of an adversary's "intent"-its indicators and relation to behavior. It is primarily intended for the operational and policy community in the Department of Defense, the intelligence community, the Department of Homeland Security, and other US government agencies. The authors are from the intelligence community, the military services, US government agencies, federally funded research and development centers, academia, and the private sector. The purpose of From the Mind to the Feet is to open a much deeper dialogue about gauging intent than currently exists either in operational or academic arenas. It is intended to serve military and civilian defense leaders, deterrence and policy planners, and practitioners with a review of the basic concepts and state-of-the-art understanding of intent. It is organized into two sections: operational and academic perspectives on intent. Air University Press.
Henry Kissinger conducted American foreign policy with a distinctive assurance and panache that gave dramatic force to his tenure as secretary of state. His was the shaping hand in decisions that led to detente with the Soviet Union, to opening relations with the People's Republic of China, and to "shuttle" diplomacy in the Middle East and the disengagement of Egypt and Israel during the 1973 war. Taking a fresh look at the statecraft of Henry Kissinger, Harvey Starr brings to bear a variety of analytical methods on data drawn from different stages in Kissinger's career to define and explain the beliefs and perceptions that formed the ground of his policy decisions. Using psychohistory and content analysis, Starr defines Kissinger's perceptions of his adversaries -- the Soviet Union and Red China -- and draws revealing comparisons between Kissinger and John Foster Dulles. Henry Kissinger: Perceptions of International Politics is an illuminating view of an important era in American diplomacy.
"The authors' carefully crafted analysis will influence thought and the policy debate on the tradeoff between unilateralism and multilateralism for decades to come." -Todd Sandler, Robert R. and Katheryn A. Dockson Professor of International Relations & Economics, University of Southern California "Boyer and Bobrow's well-written, data-rich analysis of such pressing issues as development assistance, debt management, UN peacekeeping, and environmental protection makes Defensive Internationalism a highly original and provocative contribution to the study of global governance." -Yale H. Ferguson, Co-Director, Center for Global Change and Governance, Rutgers University In this pathbreaking study, authors Davis B. Bobrow and Mark A. Boyer argue for "muted optimism" about the future of international cooperation. Leaders of a growing movement that integrates constructivism into traditional international studies concepts and methods, Bobrow and Boyer analyze four key international issues: development cooperation, debt management, peacekeeping operations, and environmental affairs. Their approach integrates elements of public goods theory, identity theory, new institutionalism, and rational choice. Defensive Internationalism is a well-written, creative and coherent synthesis of ideas that have up to now been considered irreconcilable. It is appropriate for upper-level undergraduate and graduate students in international relations, conflict studies, and political economy, and promises to become a foundational work in its field. Davis B. Bobrow is Professor of Public and International Affairs and Political Science at the University of Pittsburgh. Mark A. Boyer is Professor of Political Science at the University of Connecticut.
