Pakistan
Pakistan

Author: International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2015-04-07

Total Pages: 92

ISBN-13: 1484321286

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Extended Arrangement under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF): A 36 month, SDR 4,393 million (425 percent of quota) Extended Arrangement under the EFF was approved by the Executive Board on September 4, 2013 and the fourth and fifth reviews were completed on December 17, 2014, for a total disbursement of SDR 2,160 million. The sixth tranche amounting to SDR 360 million will be available upon the completion of this review. Status of the program: All end-December 2014 quantitative performance criteria (PCs) were observed, as well as the indicative target on cash transfers under the Benazir Income Support program (BISP). Although the indicative target on federal tax revenues was missed, the authorities have taken actions to address the shortfall and are on track to meet the end-March 2015 indicative target. The end-December 2014 structural benchmark (SB) on amendments to the relevant tax laws and submission of the Anti- Money Laundering Act (AMLA) was met, as were the end-February SBs on enhancing internal operations and risk management of the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) and improving monetary policy operations. Adjustments to the end-March PCs on NIR and NDA are proposed to reflect higher reserves accumulation by the SBP and new end- June PCs and four new SBs are proposed. Key issues: Discussions focused on: (i) saving the windfall from falling oil prices to strengthen buffers?including foreign exchange reserves and the fiscal stance?against adverse shocks; (ii) preventing a further loss of export competitiveness; (iii) reducing electricity subsidies; (iv) introducing compensatory measures to cover the revenue shortfall; (v) steps to broaden the tax base and improve tax administration; (vi) progress on safeguarding financial stability and expanding credit growth; (vii) enhancing structural reforms in the energy sector, central bank independence, anti-money laundering framework, public debt management, trade, and the business climate to unlock Pakistan’s long-term growth potential. The mission retained its growth projection at 4.3 percent, but lowered inflation forecast to 5.5 percent for FY2014/15. Risks are balanced with downside risks due to political uncertainties and security challenges, and upside risks from further falls in oil prices. Outreach activities included a press release, press conference (held in Dubai) and bilateral interviews with journalists.

The Distributional Implications of the Impact of Fuel Price Increases on Inflation
The Distributional Implications of the Impact of Fuel Price Increases on Inflation

Author: Mr. Kangni R Kpodar

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2021-11-12

Total Pages: 34

ISBN-13: 1616356154

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This paper investigates the response of consumer price inflation to changes in domestic fuel prices, looking at the different categories of the overall consumer price index (CPI). We then combine household survey data with the CPI components to construct a CPI index for the poorest and richest income quintiles with the view to assess the distributional impact of the pass-through. To undertake this analysis, the paper provides an update to the Global Monthly Retail Fuel Price Database, expanding the product coverage to premium and regular fuels, the time dimension to December 2020, and the sample to 190 countries. Three key findings stand out. First, the response of inflation to gasoline price shocks is smaller, but more persistent and broad-based in developing economies than in advanced economies. Second, we show that past studies using crude oil prices instead of retail fuel prices to estimate the pass-through to inflation significantly underestimate it. Third, while the purchasing power of all households declines as fuel prices increase, the distributional impact is progressive. But the progressivity phases out within 6 months after the shock in advanced economies, whereas it persists beyond a year in developing countries.

Inflation in Emerging and Developing Economies
Inflation in Emerging and Developing Economies

Author: Jongrim Ha

Publisher: World Bank Publications

Published: 2019-02-24

Total Pages: 524

ISBN-13: 1464813760

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This is the first comprehensive study in the context of EMDEs that covers, in one consistent framework, the evolution and global and domestic drivers of inflation, the role of expectations, exchange rate pass-through and policy implications. In addition, the report analyzes inflation and monetary policy related challenges in LICs. The report documents three major findings: In First, EMDE disinflation over the past four decades was to a significant degree a result of favorable external developments, pointing to the risk of rising EMDE inflation if global inflation were to increase. In particular, the decline in EMDE inflation has been supported by broad-based global disinflation amid rapid international trade and financial integration and the disruption caused by the global financial crisis. While domestic factors continue to be the main drivers of short-term movements in EMDE inflation, the role of global factors has risen by one-half between the 1970s and the 2000s. On average, global shocks, especially oil price swings and global demand shocks have accounted for more than one-quarter of domestic inflation variatio--and more in countries with stronger global linkages and greater reliance on commodity imports. In LICs, global food and energy price shocks accounted for another 12 percent of core inflation variatio--half more than in advanced economies and one-fifth more than in non-LIC EMDEs. Second, inflation expectations continue to be less well-anchored in EMDEs than in advanced economies, although a move to inflation targeting and better fiscal frameworks has helped strengthen monetary policy credibility. Lower monetary policy credibility and exchange rate flexibility have also been associated with higher pass-through of exchange rate shocks into domestic inflation in the event of global shocks, which have accounted for half of EMDE exchange rate variation. Third, in part because of poorly anchored inflation expectations, the transmission of global commodity price shocks to domestic LIC inflation (combined with unintended consequences of other government policies) can have material implications for poverty: the global food price spikes in 2010-11 tipped roughly 8 million people into poverty.

Pakistan's Cotton and Textile Economy
Pakistan's Cotton and Textile Economy

Author: Caesar Bucia Cororaton

Publisher: Intl Food Policy Res Inst

Published: 2008-01-01

Total Pages: 119

ISBN-13: 0896291677

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Pakistan's cotton, textile, and apparel industries are key sectors of the nation's economy; their performance can contribute to either a rise or fall in poverty. These vital industries have faced a variety of challenges and opportunities in recent years, including world cotton price instability, liberalization of the multilateral clothing and textile trade, and sharp swings in the Pakistani macroeconomic situation. Using a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model and drawing on a national survey of Pakistani households, the authors of this report evaluate the consequences of several recent or prospective economic changes on Pakistan's cotton, textile, and apparel industries and poverty levels. The economic changes include an increased inflow of foreign capital, higher world cotton and textile prices, government subsidization of the textile industry, increased productivity in the cotton and textile sectors, and other possible developments. By presenting these scenarios, the report offers policymakers and analysts a guide to anticipating and shaping the future of economic growth and poverty reduction in Pakistan.

Economic Uncertainty in the Post-Pandemic Era
Economic Uncertainty in the Post-Pandemic Era

Author: Shilpa Deo

Publisher: Taylor & Francis

Published: 2024-12-05

Total Pages: 208

ISBN-13: 1040264166

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The global economy has experienced many challenges in recent times, particularly in the shadow of the COVID-19 pandemic, such as dwindling demand, supply chain disruptions, declining growth rates, further pandemic waves, and increasing poverty and inequality to name but a few. Four years after the pandemic, economies are still struggling to achieve sustainable economic growth and development. While much has been written about the impact of COVID-19 on various sectors and economies, this is the first book to underscore the post-COVID global uncertainties that are still occurring on the world stage and further, to present the recent challenges such as geo-political tensions, war, economic disturbances, climate change, the energy crisis in Europe, recession in developed economies and its effect on developing and least developed economies. The book starts by setting the grounds for further discussion of the present challenges as well as future implications. In addition to examining the immediate issues which occurred with the onset of the pandemic, it explores these from the perspective of developed, developing, and least developed countries. The wide-ranging topics covered by the book include the ongoing Russia-Ukraine War, China’s increasing economic dominance in neighbouring countries, the economic collapse of Sri Lanka and Pakistan, the factors that led to the technology layoffs and the future of global employees and economies. The book goes beyond looking at sector-specific factors and broadly outlines country-specific instabilities, policy choices and the way forward. The book will be of interest to students of macroeconomics, development and international economics, and international relations as well as researchers and policymakers.

Cambridge International AS and A Level Economics Revision Guide
Cambridge International AS and A Level Economics Revision Guide

Author: Susan Grant

Publisher: Cambridge University Press

Published: 2013-03-18

Total Pages: 287

ISBN-13: 1107661781

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Cambridge International AS and A Level Economics Revision Guide helps students prepare for the Cambridge examination. Cambridge International AS and A Level Economics Revision Guide provides guidance on tackling the different types of questions set by the examination board. It includes advice on revision and essay writing, as well as clear summaries of the syllabus content.

Exports, Politics, And Economic Development
Exports, Politics, And Economic Development

Author: John Q Adams

Publisher: Routledge

Published: 2019-03-04

Total Pages: 197

ISBN-13: 0429717016

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During the 1970s, Pakistan's export policies went through two major transformations as a result of realignments among its internal interest groups, bringing about significant changes in export composition and performance. As leader of a coalition of labor, small business, and other mass interests, President Z. A. Bhutto supported a more equitable d