IMF Staff papers, Volume 46 No. 3
IMF Staff papers, Volume 46 No. 3

Author: International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 1999-01-01

Total Pages: 104

ISBN-13: 1451973683

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This paper examines determinants and leading indicators of banking crises. The paper examines episodes of banking system distress and crisis in a large sample of countries to identify which macroeconomic and financial variables can be useful leading indicators. The best warning signs of the recent Asian crises were proxies for the vulnerability of the banking and corporate sector. Full-blown banking crises are shown to be associated more with external developments, and domestic variables are the main leading indicators of severe but contained banking distress.

IMF Staff papers, Volume 46 No. 2
IMF Staff papers, Volume 46 No. 2

Author: International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 1999-01-01

Total Pages: 148

ISBN-13: 1451974205

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This paper analyzes the predictability of currency crises. The paper evaluates three models for predicting currency crises that were proposed before 1997. Two of the models failed to provide useful forecasts. One model provides forecasts that are somewhat informative though still not reliable. Plausible modifications to this model improve its performance, providing some hope that future models may do better. The study suggests, though, that although forecasting models may help indicate vulnerability to crises, the predictive power of even the best of them may be limited.

IMF Staff Papers, Volume 46, No. 1
IMF Staff Papers, Volume 46, No. 1

Author: International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 1999-03-15

Total Pages: 116

ISBN-13: 1451974558

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This economic journal contains theoretical and empirical analyses of varous macroeconomic issues. The studies are prepapred by IMF research staff or consultants. Subjects covered inclulde balance of payments and exchange rates, monetary systems and policies, public finances, international trade, economic growth, and some sectoral analyses. The last issue of the year contains an index to the volume. Approximately 200 pages in each issue.

IMF Staff Papers, Volume 52, No. 3
IMF Staff Papers, Volume 52, No. 3

Author: International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2005-12-22

Total Pages: 193

ISBN-13: 1589064755

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This last issue for 2005 comprises seven new papers, including a contribution to the journal's occasional Special Data Section about domestic debt markets in Sub-Saharan Africa, and also an in-depth look at the internal job market for entry-level economists at the IMF. The remaining articles cover toics as diverse as: modeling of asset markets, exchange rates in developing countries, international bank claims on Latin America, the effectiveness of "early warning" systems, and the use (by emerging market countries) of the IMF's Special Data Dissemination Standard (SDDS).

IMF Staff Papers, Volume 49, No. 3
IMF Staff Papers, Volume 49, No. 3

Author: International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2002-09-23

Total Pages: 260

ISBN-13: 9781589061224

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This paper empirically investigates the monetary impact of banking crises in Chile, Colombia, Denmark, Japan, Kenya, Malaysia, and Uruguay during 1975–98. Cointegration analysis and error correction modeling are used to research two issues: (i) whether money demand stability is threatened by banking crises; and (ii) whether crises lead to structural breaks in the relation between monetary indicators and prices. Overall, no systematic evidence that banking crises cause money demand instability is found. The paper also analyzes inflation targeting in the context of the IMF-supported adjustment programs.

IMF Staff Papers, Volume 53, No. 3
IMF Staff Papers, Volume 53, No. 3

Author: International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2006-12-15

Total Pages: 183

ISBN-13: 1589065816

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This is the final issue for 2006 (Volume 53), and contains another paper in the occasional Special Data Section that seeks to measure financial development in the Middle East and North Africa by utilizing a new database. The issue also contains a comment from Jacques J. Polak on parity reversion in real exchange rates.

IMF Staff Papers, Volume 52, No. 1
IMF Staff Papers, Volume 52, No. 1

Author: International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2005-04-18

Total Pages: 156

ISBN-13: 9781589064195

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This first issue of IMF Staff Papers for 2005 contains 7 papers that discuss: whether output recovered after the Asian crisis; the value of a country's trading partners to its own economic growth; whether interdependence is a factor in understanding the spread of currency crises; can remittance payments from expatriates be a reliable source of capital for economic development?; total factor productivity; designing a VAT for the energy trade in Russia and Ukraine; and lastly, a discussion of the reasons for central bank intervention in ERM-I since 1993

IMF Staff Papers, Volume 50, No. 2
IMF Staff Papers, Volume 50, No. 2

Author: Mr.Robert P. Flood

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2003-07-11

Total Pages: 172

ISBN-13: 9781589062023

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This paper examines sources of economic growth in East Asia. The conventional growth-accounting approach to estimating the sources of economic growth requires unrealistically strong assumptions about either competitiveness of factor markets or the form of the underlying aggregate production function. The paper outlines a new approach utilizing nonparametric derivative estimation techniques that does not require imposing these restrictive assumptions. The results for East Asian countries show that output elasticities of capital and labor tend to be different from the income shares of these factors. The paper also explores the compensating potential of private intergenerational transfers.

IMF Staff papers, Volume 43 No. 3
IMF Staff papers, Volume 43 No. 3

Author: International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 1996-01-01

Total Pages: 188

ISBN-13: 1451973446

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This paper examines the volatility and predictability of emerging stock markets. A range of measures suggests that, despite perceptions to the contrary, the volatility of emerging markets may have fallen rather than risen on average. Also, although the autocorrelations in emerging market returns appear to turn negative at horizons of a year or more, the magnitude of these return reversals is not that much larger than reversals in some mature markets. One interpretation of the results would be that emerging markets have not consistently been subject to fads or bubbles, or at least no more so than in some industrial countries.

IMF Staff Papers, Volume 56, No. 4
IMF Staff Papers, Volume 56, No. 4

Author: International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2009-11-04

Total Pages: 296

ISBN-13: 1589069102

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This paper empirically evaluates four types of costs that may result from an international sovereign default: reputational costs, international trade exclusion costs, costs to the domestic economy through the financial system, and political costs to the authorities. It finds that the economic costs are generally significant but short-lived, and sometimes do not operate through conventional channels. The political consequences of a debt crisis, by contrast, seem to be particularly dire for incumbent governments and finance ministers, broadly in line with what happens in currency crises.