IMF Staff papers, Volume 44 No. 3
IMF Staff papers, Volume 44 No. 3

Author: International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 1997-01-01

Total Pages: 120

ISBN-13: 1451973462

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This paper studies the case of Mexico to examine determinants of banking system fragility. The paper tests empirically the proposition that bank fragility is determined by bank-specific factors, macroeconomic conditions, and potential contagion effects. The methodology allows the variables that determine bank failure to differ from those that influence banks’ time to failure (or survival rate). Based on the indicators of fragility of individual banks, the paper constructs an index of fragility for the banking system. The framework is applied to the Mexican financial crisis that began in 1994.

IMF Staff papers, Volume 42 No. 3
IMF Staff papers, Volume 42 No. 3

Author: International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 1995-01-01

Total Pages: 280

ISBN-13: 145197339X

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This paper analyzes long-term exchange rate modeling. The paper reviews the literature that tests for a unit root in real exchange rates and the closely related work on testing for a unit root in the residual from a regression of the nominal exchange rate on relative prices. It argues that the balance of evidence is supportive of the existence of some form of long-term exchange rate relationship. The paper highlights that the form of this relationship, however, does not accord exactly with a traditional representation of the long-term exchange rate.

IMF Staff Papers, Volume 53, No. 3
IMF Staff Papers, Volume 53, No. 3

Author: International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2006-12-15

Total Pages: 183

ISBN-13: 1589065816

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This is the final issue for 2006 (Volume 53), and contains another paper in the occasional Special Data Section that seeks to measure financial development in the Middle East and North Africa by utilizing a new database. The issue also contains a comment from Jacques J. Polak on parity reversion in real exchange rates.

IMF Staff Papers
IMF Staff Papers

Author: International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2002-11-04

Total Pages: 250

ISBN-13: 9781589061231

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This paper reports for uncovered interest parity (UIP) using daily data for 23 developing and developed countries during the crisis-strewn 1990s. UIP is a classic topic of international finance, a critical building block of most theoretical models, and a dismal empirical failure. UIP states that the interest differential is, on average, equal to the ex post exchange rate change. UIP may work differently for countries in crisis, whose exchange and interest rates both display considerably more volatility. This volatility raises the stakes for financial markets and central banks; it also may provide a more statistically powerful test for the UIP hypothesis. Policy-exploitable deviations from UIP are, therefore, a necessary condition for an interest rate defense. There is a considerable amount of heterogeneity in the results, which differ wildly by country.

IMF Staff Papers, Volume 54, No. 3
IMF Staff Papers, Volume 54, No. 3

Author: International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2007-05-30

Total Pages: 212

ISBN-13: 1589066510

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This issue features a timely paper by Vladimir Klyuev and Paul Mills on the role of personal wealth and home equity withdrawal in the decline in the U.S. saving rate. Lusine Lusinyan and Leo Bonato explain how work absence in 18 European countries affects labor supply and demand. And a paper by Paolo Manasse (University of Bologna) entitled "Deficit Limits and Fiscal Rules for Dummies" examines fiscal frameworks.

IMF Staff papers, Volume 45 No. 3
IMF Staff papers, Volume 45 No. 3

Author: International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 1998-01-01

Total Pages: 168

ISBN-13: 1451973608

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This paper presents international evidence on the determinants of trade dynamics. It provides some new empirical perspectives on the relationship between international trade and macroeconomic fluctuations in industrial economies. A comprehensive set of stylized facts concerning fluctuations in trade variables and their determinants is presented. A measure of the quantitative importance of international trade for the propagation of domestic business cycles is then constructed, focusing on the role of external trade as a catalyst for cyclical recoveries.

IMF Staff papers, Volume 43 No. 1
IMF Staff papers, Volume 43 No. 1

Author: International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 1996-01-01

Total Pages: 268

ISBN-13: 1451957092

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This paper extends a standard growth model and obtains consistent panel data estimates of the growth retarding effects of military spending via its adverse impact on capital formation and resource allocation. Simulation experiments suggest that a substantial long-term “peace dividend”—in the form of higher capacity output—may result from markedly lower military expenditure levels achieved in most regions during the late 1980s, and the further military spending cuts that would be possible if global peace could be secured.

IMF Staff Papers, Volume 57, No. 2
IMF Staff Papers, Volume 57, No. 2

Author: International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2010-06-29

Total Pages: 244

ISBN-13: 1589069129

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This paper introduces a new database of financial reforms covering 91 economies over 1973-2005. It describes the content of the database, the information sources utilized, and the coding rules used to create an index of financial reform. It also compares the database with other measures of financial liberalization, provides descriptive statistics, and discusses some possible applications. The database provides a multifaceted measure of reform, covering seven aspects of financial sector policy. Along each dimension the database provides a graded (rather than a binary) score, and allows for reversals.

IMF Staff Papers, Volume 51, No. 3
IMF Staff Papers, Volume 51, No. 3

Author: International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2004-11-23

Total Pages: 216

ISBN-13: 9781589063518

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This paper tests uncovered interest parity (UIP) using interest rates on longer maturity bonds for the Group of Seven countries. These long-horizon regressions yield much more support for UIP—all of the coefficients on interest differentials are of the correct sign, and almost all are closer to the UIP value of unity than to zero. The paper also analyzes the decision by a government facing electoral uncertainty to implement structural reforms in the presence of fiscal restraints similar to the Stability and Growth Pact.

IMF Staff papers, Volume 37 No. 3
IMF Staff papers, Volume 37 No. 3

Author: International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 1990-01-01

Total Pages: 292

ISBN-13: 1451973063

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This paper analyzes macroeconomic effects of projected population aging in industrial countries. The effects of population aging are examined with a theoretical model and simulations of the IMF’s multiregion econometric model (MULTIMOD). The study highlights that an older population will consume more of aggregate disposable income, require higher government expenditure, and decrease labor supply. These effects should raise real interest rates and lower capital stock and output. Effects on current balances will depend on the relative speed and extent of aging.