This staff report on People’s Republic of China 2013 Article IV Consultation highlights macroeconomic developments and outlook. China has maintained robust growth since the global crisis, but the heavy reliance on credit and investment to sustain activity is raising vulnerabilities. The consequence is a steady build-up of leverage that is eroding the strength of the financial sector, local government, and corporate balance sheets. This is most apparent in the continued rapid expansion in total social financing. The development of nontraditional finance marks a shift to more market-based intermediation, and the migration of activity to less-regulated parts of the system poses risks to financial stability.
The global economy has experienced four waves of rapid debt accumulation over the past 50 years. The first three debt waves ended with financial crises in many emerging market and developing economies. During the current wave, which started in 2010, the increase in debt in these economies has already been larger, faster, and broader-based than in the previous three waves. Current low interest rates mitigate some of the risks associated with high debt. However, emerging market and developing economies are also confronted by weak growth prospects, mounting vulnerabilities, and elevated global risks. A menu of policy options is available to reduce the likelihood that the current debt wave will end in crisis and, if crises do take place, will alleviate their impact.
Five years into the ongoing and tragic conflict, the paper analyzes how Syria’s economy and its people have been affected and outlines the challenges in rebuilding the economy. With extreme limitations on information, the findings of the paper are subject to an extraordinary degree of uncertainty. The key messages are: (1) that the devastating civil war has set the country back decades in terms of economic, social and human development. Syria’s GDP today is less than half of what it was before the war started and it could take two decades or more for Syria to return to its pre-conflict GDP levels; and that (2) while reconstructing damaged physical infrastructure will be a monumental task, rebuilding Syria’s human and social capital will be an even greater and lasting challenge.
The Brown Government provides an interim evaluation of Gordon Brown’s Labour administration through identifying continuities and discontinuities with the Blair governments from 1997. By focusing on key ideas and areas of public policy it presents an analysis of the first 18 months of Brown’s government. This book is notable for its topicality particularly for the discussions of the credit crunch, the British banking crises and the interconnectedness of these events with the global economic downturn. A study of Brown’s handling of these crises in the economy is important as it is arguable that the present recession and credit crunch will reach unprecedented proportions and therefore define the character and content of British politics in the coming years. By conducting an examination of the Brown Government’s public policy priorities one can begin to decipher its aims and values and, by so doing, begin to understand the next phase of the New Labour project. In this sense the book is a contribution to the ongoing study of contemporary British social democracy. This book was published as a special issue of Policy Studies.
This edition of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Minerals Yearbook discusses the performance of the worldwide minerals and materials industries during year 2013 and provides background information to assist in interpreting that performance. These annual reviews are designed to provide timely statistical data on mineral commodities in various countries. This volume covers data from Asia and the Pacific. Each report includes sections on government policies and programs, environmental issues, trade and production data, industry structure and ownership, commodity sector developments, infrastructure, and a summary outlook. Audience: Government employees and contractors, as well as businesses and employees, all working in mineral-related trades, especially with interests in statistics about mineral commodities overseas, will find this resource invaluable.
Published since 1950, this authoritative, annual reference is based upon a unique IMF database that tracks exchange and trade arrangements for all 186 IMF member countries, along with Hong Kong SAR, Aruba, and the Netherlands Antilles. The Annual Report on Exchange Arrangements and Exchange Restrictions (AREAER) draws together information available to the IMF from a number of sources, including during official IMF staff visits to member countries. There is a separate chapter for each of the 189 countries included, and these are presented in a clear, easy-to-read tabular format. A summary table allows for simple cross-country comparisons of key features of their exchange and trade regimes. The report's introduction summarizes recent global trends and developments. It discusses such topical issues as exchange rate arrangements, current or capital transactions, or prudential regulations. The individual country chapters outline exchange measures in place, the structure and setting of exchange rates, arrangements for payments and receipts, procedures for resident and nonresident accounts, mechanisms for import and export payments and receipts, controls on capital transactions, and provisions specific to the financial sector. The report now provides more detailed information on the operations of foreign exchange markets and exchange rate mechanisms and better describes the regulatory framework for current and capital account transactions.
This volume focuses on the aftermath of the euro crisis and whether the reforms have brought about lasting changes to the economic and political structures of the crisis countries or if the changes were short-term and easily abandoned post-bailout and post-recovery. Starting with an analysis of the state of euro area governance at the onset of the crisis and the ensuing reforms, the book considers structural conditions as well as those specific to the domestic political economy of most of the countries affected by the crisis, including Greece, Ireland, Portugal, Spain, and Italy. It presents up-to-date and incisive analysis of the aftermath of the crisis and suggests how we can situate it within our understanding of different national growth models in Europe. This book will be of key interest to scholars, students and practitioners interested in the Euro Crisis, Economic and Monetary Union, European Union and European politics and more broadly to Comparative Politics, Political Economy, International Relations, Economics, Finance, Business and Industry.
This edition of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Minerals Yearbook discusses the performance of the worldwide minerals and materials industries during year 2013 and provides background information to assist in interpreting that performance. These annual reviews are designed to provide timely statistical data on mineral commodities in various countries. This volume covers data from Asia and the Pacific. Each report includes sections on government policies and programs, environmental issues, trade and production data, industry structure and ownership, commodity sector developments, infrastructure, and a summary outlook. Audience: Government employees and contractors, as well as businesses and employees, all working in mineral-related trades, especially with interests in statistics about mineral commodities overseas, will find this resource invaluable.
This paper reviews the Interim Staff Report Under Intensified Surveillance for Jamaica. Following the adverse economic impact of Hurricane Ivan, the outlook for FY 2005/06 is for a rebound in growth in the context of broad macroeconomic stability. Real GDP growth slowed, and damage to agriculture contributed to double-digit inflation in FY 2004/05. Achieving the envisaged further reduction in the public debt-to-GDP ratio to 100 percent over the next four years will be challenging and demand high fiscal discipline. The IMF staff welcomes the continuing progress toward strengthening the regulatory and supervisory framework of the financial system.
The crises emanating from the Global Financial Crisis and the COVID-19 Pandemic have underscored, the emergency role of the State and its smooth, seamless reactivation, for situations when private activity and markets are disrupted. In many countries, SOEs have been a crucial part in delivering on that effort as agents of the State. While SOEs are increasingly sought to play a role during emergency situations, evidence suggests that they misallocate capital and mismanage resources. This is indicative of the conflicts of interests in owning and regulating enterprises as well as between the commercial and non-commercial objectives of SOEs, crony capitalism, the private agenda of public officials, internal management of SOEs, the significant role played by state owned banks and financial institutions and the conflicts that arise in the State's primary role vs. its ownership of enterprises. The studies of eight countries from different regions undertaken for this book, provide answers to these key policy questions related to state capitalism. Generalizing from the results of multi-country studies to arrive at universally applicable predictions, prescriptions, and policy recommendations, is inherently difficult. Individual countries are quite different in their socio-economic, historical, political, and institutional circumstances. So are their experiences, as the eight country studies highlight, even as the book attempts to extrude, from available research, the principal common characteristics of, and practices followed by, successful SOEs independently of country context. Among other conditions, the two most important conclusions that can be drawn from the country studies are that competition and regulation rather than ownership per se is key to efficiency.
