How Accurate Are the Imf's Short-Term Forecasts? Another Examination of the World Economic Outlook

How Accurate Are the Imf's Short-Term Forecasts? Another Examination of the World Economic Outlook

Author: Mr.Michael J. Artis

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 1996-08-01

Total Pages: 94

ISBN-13: 1451851251

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This paper analyzes the short-term forecasts for industrial and developing countries produced by the International Monetary Fund, and published twice a year in the World Economic Outlook (WEO). For the industrial country group, the WEO forecasts for output growth and inflation are satisfactory and pass most conventional tests in forecasting economic developments, although forecast accuracy has not improved over time, and predicting the turning points of the business cycle remains a weakness. For the developing countries, the task of forecasting movements in economic activity is even more difficult and the conventional measures of forecast accuracy are less satisfactory than for the industrial countries.


World Economic Outlook, April 2016

World Economic Outlook, April 2016

Author: International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2016-04-12

Total Pages: 230

ISBN-13: 1498398588

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Major macroeconomic realignments are affecting prospects differentially across the world’s countries and regions. The April 2016 WEO examines the causes and implications of these realignments—including the slowdown and rebalancing in China, a further decline in commodity prices, a related slowdown in investment and trade, and declining capital flows to emerging market and developing economies—which are generating substantial uncertainty and affecting the outlook for the global economy. Additionally, analytical chapters examine the slowdown in capital flows to emerging market economies since their 2010 peak—its main characteristics, how it compares with past slowdowns, the factors that are driving it, and whether exchange rate flexibility has changed the dynamics of the capital inflow cycle—and assess whether product and labor market reforms can improve the economic outlook in advanced economies, looking at the recent evolution and scope for further reform, the channels through which reforms affect economic activity under strong versus weak economic conditions, reforms’ short- to medium-term macroeconomic effects, and sequencing of reforms and coordination with other policies to maximize their potential quantitative economic benefits. A special feature analyzes in depth the energy transition in an era of low fossil fuel prices.


World Economic Outlook, April 2015

World Economic Outlook, April 2015

Author: International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2015-04-14

Total Pages: 884

ISBN-13: 1498378005

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Global growth remains moderate and uneven, and a number of complex forces are shaping the outlook. These include medium- and long-term trends, global shocks, and many country- or region-specific factors. The April 2015 WEO examines the causes and implications of recent trends, including lower oil prices, which are providing a boost to growth globally and in many oil-importing countries but are weighing on activity in oil-exporting countries, and substantial changes in exchange rates for major currencies, reflecting variations in country growth rates and in exchange rate policies and the lower price of oil. Additionally, analytical chapters explore the growth rate of potential output across advanced and emerging market economies, assessing its recent track and likely future course; and the performance of private fixed investment in advanced economies, which has featured prominently in the public policy debate in recent years, focusing on the role of overall economic weakness in accounting for this performance.


IEO Evaluation Report

IEO Evaluation Report

Author: International Monetary Fund. Independent Evaluation Office

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2014-04-30

Total Pages: 68

ISBN-13: 1484363787

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The Independent Evaluation Office (IEO) was established by the IMF’s Executive Board in 2001. It provides objective and independent evaluation of issues related to the IMF. The IEO operates independently of IMF management and at arm’s length from the IMF Executive Board. For more information on the IEO’s activities, visit the IEO website: www.ieo-imf.org.


Modeling the World Economic Outlook At the IMF

Modeling the World Economic Outlook At the IMF

Author: Mr.James M. Boughton

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 1997-04-01

Total Pages: 25

ISBN-13: 1451846703

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The World Economic Outlook (WEO) exercise at the IMF evolved during the 1980s, partly in response to demands by policymakers in national finance ministries for objective and internationally comparable projections and policy scenarios. The exercise had begun as a staff initiative, encouraged by the Managing Director (Johannes Witteveen). Gradually, the Executive Board, the Interim Committee, the Group of Seven, and others came to view the discussion of the WEO documents as an important element in their efforts to keep abreast of world economic developments and prospects. Direct and indirect feedback from those discussions informed the staff as to how the exercise should be improved. Driven by this policy relevance, the WEO evolved from a decentralized project that was only haphazardly model-based into a more rigorous and coordinated exercise.


World Economic Outlook, April 2006

World Economic Outlook, April 2006

Author: International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2005-09-20

Total Pages: 283

ISBN-13: 1589065492

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The World Economic Outlook is the product of a unique international exercise in information gathering and analysis performed by IMF staff to guide key initiatives and to serve IMF member countries. Published at least twice a year in English, French, Spanish, and Arabic, the World Economic Outlook offers a comprehensive picture of the international economic situation and prospects for the future. With its analyses backed by the expertise and resources of over 1,100 IMF economists, the World Economic Outlook is the authoritative reference in its field. Today, even small economic fluctuations can trigger major financial swings. It’s vital to have the latest perspective on what’s happening and where it could lead in the coming months and years. The World Economic Outlook brings you that perspective, giving you analyses, forecasts, and figures you’ll use all year long.


IMF Staff Papers, Volume 49, No. 1

IMF Staff Papers, Volume 49, No. 1

Author: Mr.Robert P. Flood

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2002-04-18

Total Pages: 166

ISBN-13: 9781589060975

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This paper presents details of a symposium on forecasting performance I organized under the auspices of the IMF Staff Papers. The assumption that the forecaster's goal is to do as well as possible in predicting the actual outcome is sometimes questionable. ln the context of private sector forecasts, this is because the incentives for forecasters may induce them to herd rather than to reveal their true forecasts. Public sector forecasts may also be distorted, although for different reasons. Forecasts associated with IMF programs, for example, are often the result of negotiations between the IMF staff and the country authorities and are perhaps more accurately viewed as goals, or targets, rather than pure forecasts. The standard theory of time series forecasting involves a variety of components including the choice of an information set, the choice of a cost function, and the evaluation of forecasts in terms of the average costs of the forecast errors. It is generally acknowledged that by including more relevant information in the information set, one should be able to produce better forecasts.


World Economic Outlook -- Interim Assessment, December 1997

World Economic Outlook -- Interim Assessment, December 1997

Author: International Monetary Fund

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 1998-01-27

Total Pages: 94

ISBN-13: 9781557757142

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The economic and financial crisis that erupted in southeast Asia in July 1997 had continued to deepen and broaden as of December, and spillover effects from investor deteriorating confidence in emerging market economies were being felt throughout the global financial system. This special Interim Assessment of the World Economic Outlook revises regional and global economic projections made by the IMF staff, as published in the October 1997 issue, in light of the crisis; charts the buildup to the crisis and its onset and evolution; assesses effects on the advanced economies and on private financing for developing countries; and raises policy issues that the crisis has posed.