Hong Kong’s Growth Synchronization with China and the U.S.
Hong Kong’s Growth Synchronization with China and the U.S.

Author: Mr.Dong He

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2017-07-08

Total Pages: 27

ISBN-13: 1475519648

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This paper investigates the synchronization of Hong Kong SAR’s economic growth with mainland China and the United States. This paper identifies trends of economic growth based on the permanent income hypothesis. Specifically, the paper confirms whether real consumption in Hong Kong SAR and mainland China satisfy the permanent income hypothesis, at least in a weak form. It then identifies the permanent and transitory components of income of each economy using a simple state-space model. It uses structural vector autoregression models to analyze how permanent and transitory shocks originating from mainland China and the United States affect the Hong Kong economy, and how such influences evolve over time. The paper’s main findings suggest that transitory shocks from the United States remain a major driving force behind Hong Kong SAR’s business cycle fluctuations. On the other hand, permanent shocks from mainland China have a larger impact on Hong Kong SAR’s trend growth.

People’s Republic of China-Hong Kong Special Administrative Region
People’s Republic of China-Hong Kong Special Administrative Region

Author: International Monetary Fund

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2018-01-22

Total Pages: 59

ISBN-13: 1484338413

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This Selected Issues paper examines medium-term fiscal prospects and policy recommendations for Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (SAR). Hong Kong SAR’s fiscal framework has worked well over the last 20 years but challenges have emerged that will strain the fiscal position in the medium to long term. Consequently, while fiscal space is ample currently, it could become gradually constrained over time. The fiscal rule should be implemented flexibly and revenue mobilization needs to be considered down the road. On the expenditure side, containment will be hard, given rapid aging and still high inequality. The challenge will be to maintain investment and boost land supply while increasing social spending to guarantee that those who need support are effectively protected.

IMF Research Bulletin, June 2015
IMF Research Bulletin, June 2015

Author: International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2015-06-18

Total Pages: 15

ISBN-13: 1513503979

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In the June 2015 issue, the Research Summaries review "Migration: An Attractive Insurance Option in African Countries" (Ahmat Jidoud) and "Investment in Emerging Markets" (Nicolas E. Magud and Sebastian Sosa). The Q&A looks at "Seven Questions on Islamic Finance” (Inutu Lukonga). The Bulletin also includes its regular listings of recent IMF Working Papers and Staff Discussion Notes, as well as information on the "IMF Economic Review." A new IMF eLibrary discussion site on energy and climate change is highlighted, along with new recommendations from IMF Publications.

China's Changing Trade and the Implications for the CLMV
China's Changing Trade and the Implications for the CLMV

Author: Mr.Koshy Mathai

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2016-09-01

Total Pages: 84

ISBN-13: 1475531710

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China’s trade patterns are evolving. While it started in light manufacturing and the assembly of more sophisticated products as part of global supply chains, China is now moving up the value chain, “onshoring” the production of higher-value-added upstream products and moving into more sophisticated downstream products as well. At the same time, with its wages rising, it has started to exit some lower-end, more labor-intensive sectors. These changes are taking place in the broader context of China’s rebalancing—away from exports and toward domestic demand, and within the latter, away from investment and toward consumption—and as a consequence, demand for some commodity imports is slowing, while consumption imports are slowly rising. The evolution of Chinese trade, investment, and consumption patterns offers opportunities and challenges to low-wage, low-income countries, including China’s neighbors in the Mekong region. Cambodia, Lao P.D.R., Myanmar, and Vietnam (the CLMV) are all open economies that are highly integrated with China. Rebalancing in China may mean less of a role for commodity exports from the region, but at the same time, the CLMV’s low labor costs suggest that manufacturing assembly for export could take off as China becomes less competitive, and as China itself demands more consumption items. Labor costs, however, are only part of the story. The CLMV will need to strengthen their infrastructure, education, governance, and trade regimes, and also run sound macro policies in order to capitalize fully on the opportunities presented by China’s transformation. With such policy efforts, the CLMV could see their trade and integration with global supply chains grow dramatically in the coming years.

U.S. Policy Toward Hong Kong
U.S. Policy Toward Hong Kong

Author: United States. Congress. House. Committee on Foreign Affairs. Subcommittee on Human Rights and International Organizations

Publisher:

Published: 1992

Total Pages: 216

ISBN-13:

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Regional Economic Outlook, April 2008, Asia and Pacific
Regional Economic Outlook, April 2008, Asia and Pacific

Author: International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2008-04-12

Total Pages: 51

ISBN-13: 158906710X

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2008 is shaping up as a challenging year for Asia. Activity in most economies remains fairly buoyant, but growth in the United States and, to a lesser extent, Europe is slowing sharply. Given its extensive trade and financial linkages with the rest of the world, Asia is unlikely to delink. At the same time, inflation pressures are picking up across much of the region. Moreover, the still-unfolding global financial crisis adds a dimension of uncertainty to the picture, and the balance of risks remains on the downside. However, most countries in the region are well-placed to undertake counter-cyclical policies should these prove necessary.

State-Space Models
State-Space Models

Author: Yong Zeng

Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media

Published: 2013-08-15

Total Pages: 358

ISBN-13: 1461477891

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State-space models as an important mathematical tool has been widely used in many different fields. This edited collection explores recent theoretical developments of the models and their applications in economics and finance. The book includes nonlinear and non-Gaussian time series models, regime-switching and hidden Markov models, continuous- or discrete-time state processes, and models of equally-spaced or irregularly-spaced (discrete or continuous) observations. The contributed chapters are divided into four parts. The first part is on Particle Filtering and Parameter Learning in Nonlinear State-Space Models. The second part focuses on the application of Linear State-Space Models in Macroeconomics and Finance. The third part deals with Hidden Markov Models, Regime Switching and Mathematical Finance and the fourth part is on Nonlinear State-Space Models for High Frequency Financial Data. The book will appeal to graduate students and researchers studying state-space modeling in economics, statistics, and mathematics, as well as to finance professionals.

Social Structure Of Contemporary China
Social Structure Of Contemporary China

Author: Xueyi Lu

Publisher: World Scientific

Published: 2012-07-24

Total Pages: 473

ISBN-13: 9813238291

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This book is the third study done by the Research Group on Social Structure Change in Contemporary China, a group affiliated with the Institute of Sociology, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences. The group has focused on the process of development and change in contemporary Chinese social structure and come to the following conclusions.Contemporary China is transitioning from a traditional agricultural and rural society to a modern industrialized and urban society; from a highly centralized planned economy to a robust socialist market economic system. The entire society is undertaking an unprecedented evolution. During the three decades of reform and opening up, China has made brilliant achievements, never seen before in history. Now, China is in a critical period of reform and opening up, with very complex, far-reaching and closely intertwined social problems, which are also unprecedented.After deep and detailed analysis the Research Group believes that these problems cannot be resolved only by economic methods. In order to get to the roots of these social problems, China must develop new social policies, strengthen the social structure and carry out social system reform. The core purpose of the book is to recommend theories and methods on social structure to society and readers, and to investigate the development and change in China's social structure. We believe that social structure theory, a brand-new point of view to analyze the current situation, is capable of deciphering the social contradictions in China's development to some extent, as opposed to mere economic theory, which is inadequate to fully address the structural problems in China.

People’s Republic of China—Hong Kong Special Administrative Region
People’s Republic of China—Hong Kong Special Administrative Region

Author: International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2014-05-22

Total Pages: 45

ISBN-13: 1498395856

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This 2014 Article IV Consultation highlights that Hong Kong Special Administrative Region’s (HKSAR) growth recovered to 2.9 percent in 2013 as resilient domestic demand helped offset the continued drag from net exports. As the global recovery takes hold, external demand is forecast to improve and lift growth to about 33⁄4 percent in 2014, although domestic demand remains solid. Inflation is expected to remain at about 4 percent, given the slow pass-through of housing costs. In line with the improved economic outlook, the 2014/15 budget includes a reduction in one-off measures of about 1.9 percent of GDP.

Macroeconometric Methods
Macroeconometric Methods

Author: Pami Dua

Publisher: Springer Nature

Published: 2023-04-08

Total Pages: 394

ISBN-13: 9811975922

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This book provides empirical applications of macroeconometric methods through discussions on key issues in the Indian economy. It deals with issues of topical relevance in the arena of macroeconomics. The aim is to apply time series and financial econometric methods to macroeconomic issues of an emerging economy such as India. The data sources are given in each chapter, and students and researchers may replicate the analyses.The book is divided into three parts—Part I: Macroeconomic Modelling and Policy; Part II: Forecasting the Indian Economy and Part III: Business Cycles and Global Crises. It provides a holistic understanding of the techniques with each chapter delving into a relevant issue analysed using appropriate methods—Chapter 1: Introduction; Chapter 2: Macroeconomic Modelling and Bayesian Methods; Chapter 3: Monetary Policy Framework in India; Chapter 4: Determinants of Yields on Government Securities in India; Chapter 5: Monetar y Transmission in the Indian Economy; Chapter 6: India’s Bilateral Export Growth and Exchange Rate Volatility: A Panel GMM Approach; Chapter 7: Aggregate and Sectoral Productivity Growth in the Indian Economy: Analysis and Determinants; Chapter 8: Forecasting the INR/USD Exchange Rate: A BVAR Framework; Chapter 9: Forecasting India’s Inflation in a Data-Rich Environment: A FAVAR Study; Chapter 10: A Structural Macroeconometric Model for India; Chapter 11: International Synchronization of Growth Rate Cycles: An Analysis in Frequency Domain; Chapter 12: Inter-Linkages Between Asian and U.S. Stock Market Returns: A Multivariate GARCH Analysis; Chapter 13: The Increasing Synchronization of International Recessions. Since the selection of issues is from macroeconomic aspects of the Indian economy, the book has wide applications and is useful for students and researchers of fields such as applied econometrics, time series econometrics, financial econometrics, forecasting methods and macroeconomics.