Johor is a key battleground in Malaysia’s 14th General Elections. The state is economically vital to the country: it is the birthplace of the United Malays National Organization (UMNO); and it has a large number of parliamentary seats. Johor-specific dynamics that have worked to the advantage of the ruling coalition include: UMNO’s unique links with the state; the tight control over religion; and the phenomenal scale and success of the Federal Land Development Authority (FELDA) scheme. Despite these advantages, support for the ruling coalition has been slipping across the state. Furthermore, the emergence of new parties such as Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia (PPBM) will challenge Barisan Nasional’s control over Johor’s rural and Malay heartland. The redelineation of parliamentary and state constituencies now underway is however likely to benefit BN, and recent survey data indicate that Johoreans are yet to be attracted to the reconfigured opposition coalition, Pakatan Harapan. Thus, while BN may suffer a drop in support, it is likely to retain power in Johor.
In Malaysia’s last general election, urban voters tended to support the opposition coalition — 72 of the 97 urban parliamentary seats were in fact won by it. However, most of these seats have a mixed demography, with a high percentage of ethnic Chinese voters. In the upcoming general election, Pakatan has a good chance of winning the federal government if Malay voters join their Chinese counterparts in supporting the opposition coalition. A subsequent so-called “Malay tsunami” could lead to a Pakatan victory. This present study, which is based on a series of focus group discussions held in the Malaysian states of Kedah and Johor, finds that urban Malay voters are very unhappy with the economic condition of the country and are also worried about corruption. But despite their grouses, they are still uncertain about supporting the opposition coalition due to the fear of losing the race-based privileges they enjoy as ethnic Malays.
The 2018 Malaysian General Election will stand as a major defining event in Malaysian history, when the ruling Barisan Nasional coalition unexpectedly lost power in the country they had ruled for over half a century. This volume brings together scholars who assess one fundamental factor that brought about this game-changing event in Malaysian politics: intra-elite feuding in the leading Malay-based political parties. This study provides an analysis of individual state politics as well as national trends shaped by the actions of leaders in government and the opposition. An indispensable guide for scholars studying the politics of Malaysia and of Southeast Asia more broadly, it will be of great interest for all readers with an interest in Malaysian politics.
Until approximately two decades ago, the Democratic Action Party (DAP) struggled to make inroads in Johor due to: (1) the unique historical developments in the state, which benefited its primary opponent Barisan Nasional (BN), and (2) the decentralized party structure in Johor with party branches serving as the main player responsible for grassroots mobilization and campaigning, which resulted in an underdeveloped and less cohesive state party structure. Despite Lee Kaw playing a crucial leadership role for the nascent party to take root in the state, Johor remained in the periphery during the initial decades of the party’s establishment. The party managed to achieve some electoral success only in central Johor around the Kluang. The party achieved a rare breakthrough in Johor during the 1990 General Election when numerous Chinese educationalists allied with the DAP under the call of then Dong Zong chairman Lim Fong Seng. However, the national alliance frayed soon after, with the DAP losing its momentum in Johor by the next general election. Dr Boo Cheng Hau inherited the decentralized state leadership structure when he became the DAP Johor chairman in 2005. Under Dr Boo’s leadership the party prioritized welfare provision and constituency services in several state constituencies, particularly Skudai (in Gelang Patah) and Bentayan (in Bakri). The grassroots machinery was also strengthened while mechanisms were established to resolve intra-party conflicts in the lead-up to general elections. In the 2008 General Election, these efforts paid off and DAP Johor achieved its (till then) best results by capturing four state constituencies--including Skudai and Bentayan--in addition to the Bakri parliamentary seat. In the aftermath of GE2008, where DAP made unprecedented gains in Penang, Selangor and Perak, the national DAP leadership began to shift their attention towards Johor as the latter was perceived as the next frontline state. The party continued its upward swing and made unprecedented gains in the 2013 General Election. As DAP maintained its momentum, coupled with the success of other Pakatan Harapan (PH) component parties in Johor during the 2018 General Election, the DAP under the PH coalition displaced BN as the Johor state government.
The results of Malaysia's 14th General Elections of May 2018 were unexpected and transformative. Against conventional wisdom, the newly reconfigured opposition grouping Pakatan Harapan (PH) decisively defeated the incumbent Barisan Nasional (BN), ending six decades of uninterrupted dominant one-party rule. Despite a long-running financial scandal dogging the ruling coalition, pollsters and commentators predicted a solid BN victory or, at least, a narrow parliamentary majority. Yet, on the day, deeply rooted political dynamics and influential actors came together, sweeping aside many prevailing assumptions and reconfiguring the country's political reality in the process. In order to understand the elections and their implications, this edited volume brings together contributions from ISEAS - Yusof Ishak Institute researchers and a group of selected collaborators to examine the elections from three angles: campaign dynamics; important trends among major interest groups; and local-level dynamics and developments in key states. This analytical work is complemented by personal narratives from a selection of GE-14 participants.
This study was carried out in Johor and Kedah through a combination of focus groups, formal and informal interviews and long-term ethnographic participant observation. Johor was selected for this study because it is the birthplace and long-time bastion of UMNO while Kedah was of interest because of the Mahathir family legacy in the state. The study shows that the rural vote is not homogeneous; views and perceptions that could lead to electoral action differs between regions, ages and genders. Daily survival and rising costs of living are the key common issues that were raised across all regions. The importance of Malay rights and the priority of Islam are also important to the rural voter. Another common problem mentioned is that of the middleman who prevents allocated funds or financial assistance from reaching the average rural resident. Malay cultural norms, traditional obligations of loyalty and patronage politics are major factors that affect the decisions of older rural voters. Younger voters might be open to the idea of a new government, but they need to overcome community and family pressure to break away from generational practices of voting for Barisan Nasional. Some rural voters feel that they gain no benefits from having either side of the political divide in power. While these voters generally do not see the point of voting, a last-minute decision to vote may go the way of the party that provides them with immediate gains.
In 1990, the Malaysian state of Johor—along with Singapore and the Indonesian island of Batam—launched the Growth Triangle to attract foreign direct investment. For Johor, this drive was very successful, transforming its economy and driving up income levels. Today, Johor is one of Malaysia’s “developed” states, housing large clusters of electrical and electronics, food processing, and furniture producing firms. While welcome, this structural transformation has also entailed important challenges and strategic choices. After three decades, Johor’s manufacture-for-export model is under question, as it faces increasing competition and flat-lining technological capabilities. In response, the state has sought to diversify its economy through strategic investments in new, mostly service-based activities. Yet, Johor retains pockets of excellence in traditional sectors that also require support and policy attention. The state’s economic transformation has also been accompanied by far-reaching political, social, and environmental change. Not least, Johor’s growing population has generated demand for affordable housing and put pressure on public services. The strain has been exacerbated by workers from other states and overseas. These demographic factors and large-scale projects have, in turn, put stress on the environment. These economic and social changes have also had political ramifications. While Johor is a bastion of two of the country’s oldest and most established political parties, the state’s large, urban and connected electorate has made it hospitable terrain for new political organisations. Beyond electoral politics, Johor is also the home of a powerful and influential royal family, with very specific ideas about its role in the state’s political life. Building on earlier work by the ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute on the Singapore-Johor-Riau Islands Cross-border Region, this book focuses on this important Malaysian state, as it deals with important domestic challenges on one hand and strives to engage with international markets on the other. “I have always felt that there are many more complementarities possible between Singapore and Johor. This would be to the benefit of both economies, but the political division between the two was just too great. The two economies lived adjacent but separate lives—Singapore looking out to the world and Johor looking north—until initiatives such as the Iskandar Malaysia development corridor began to change things significantly. The concern now is that the pendulum may have swung too much the other way, driven by the huge income and price differentials as well as Singapore’s global city status. Francis and Serina’s compilation is a welcomed attempt at understanding Johor in a much more comprehensive manner; not just its changing economy but how its politics and society have been impacted by these changes – which is a more endogenized view of economic integration.” — Dr Nungsari Ahmad Radhi, former MP Balik Palau and Executive Director, Khazanah Nasional “Drawing on the expertise of internationally known specialists, this insightful collection explores the multiple ways in which Johor’s economic development has influenced the contemporary political scene, and the effects on local society and the environment. Skillfully edited and meticulously researched, Johor: Abode of Development? is not merely required reading for anyone interested in contemporary Malaysia, but will be of immense value to historians of the future.”—Barbara Watson Andaya, Professor of Asian Studies, University of Hawai’i
Despite decades of industrialization, Johor remains an agricultural powerhouse. The state is Peninsular Malaysia’s largest contributor to agricultural gross domestic product, and its official agricultural productivity is Malaysia’s third highest. Johor’s agricultural strengths lie primarily in product specialization, namely the farming of oil palms, various fruits and vegetables, poultry, pigs, cut flowers, and ornamental fish. Johor’s production clusters have taken decades, if not centuries, to build up their regional dominance. Urbanization, often blamed for diminishing agriculture’s importance, has actually helped drive Johor’s farm growth, even until the present day. Johor’s agricultural sector will persist for at least another decade, but may become even more specialized.
The Pengerang Integrated Petroleum Complex (PIPC) is a huge development that has emerged on the east coast of Johor. Comprising Petronas’ largest refinery facility and numerous ancillary and supporting industrial areas, it is pegged to diversify Malaysia’s petrochemical industry and reap the benefits of the area’s fortunate position on international maritime trade routes. While initial responses to the PIPC development were of concern for Singapore’s oil and gas business, the island-nation’s long reputation and position in the industry means that the PIPC has some steep learning curves to traverse before coming on par with its southerly neighbour. However, the PIPC is likely to provide a solution to Singapore’s limitations in terms of costly services and limited land space. It may also rejuvenate an industry now seen by some SMEs to be somewhat stagnant. While there are myriad global trends that may inhibit the complete success of the PIPC, it seems to be well placed to provide economic spillover benefits for Johor and Malaysia. Even if it does not become a top regional player, it will be able to meet local demands for Euro 5 quality products. The PIPC received a boost with Saudi Aramco’s commitment to invest in the Refinery and Petrochemical Integrated Development (RAPID) project. More investments may come on board when the refinery begins operations in 2019. A full assessment of PIPC’s success or failure can be conducted once other announced developments are completed and full operations begin.
Malaysia will hold its 14th general election before August 2018, bringing renewed focus on the nature of political competition in the country. This paper provides a systematic overview of the electoral process and an assessment of how it shapes the country's political environment. Political competition in Malaysia is extensively manipulated to provide the incumbent government substantial advantages in elections. Most of the manipulations are a result of institutional bias during the pre-election phase. They create a fundamentally uneven playing field that has entrenched the political dominance of the UMNO-led coalition. Electoral manipulations impose numerous costs. These include direct costs like the inefficient allocation of resources, as well as indirect costs like the exacerbating of ethnic divisions. Both channels hinder Malaysia's efforts to reach further developmental milestones. The high degree of electoral manipulation in Malaysia, juxtaposed against its successful developmental record and relative social stability, makes the country an important case for the growing body of research on electoral integrity and malpractice.
