The IMF Working Papers series is designed to make IMF staff research available to a wide audience. Almost 300 Working Papers are released each year, covering a wide range of theoretical and analytical topics, including balance of payments, monetary and fiscal issues, global liquidity, and national and international economic developments.
In the end-game of a fixed exchange rate regime, increases in interest rates to defend the currency may lead to an apparently perverse market response: further downward pressure on the exchange rate. This may result if a large proportion of investors` foreign exchange exposure is dynamically hedged. This paper describes the trading operations involved in implementing dynamic hedges and the impact of these operations on central bank policy. The success of an interest rate defense hinges on the size and timing of the funding operations of those who are being squeezed relative to those engaged in dynamic hedging.
The dramatic growth of international capital flow has provided unprecedented opportunities and risks in emerging markets. This book is the result of a conference exploring this phenomenon, sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. The issues explored include direct versus portfolio investment; exchange rates and economic growth; and optimal exchange rate policy for stabilizing inflation in developing countries. It concludes with a panel discussion on central bank coordination in the midst of exchange rate instability.
Authors of Working Papers are normally staff members of the Fund or consultants, although on occasion outside authors may collaborate with a staff member in writing a paper. The views expressed in the Working Papers or their summaries are, however, those of the authors and should not necessarily be interpreted as representing the views of the Fund. Copies of individual Working Papers and information on subscriptions to the annual series of Working Papers may be obtained from IMF Publication Services, International Monetary Fund, 700 19th Street, Washington, D.C. 20431. Telephone: (202) 623-7430 Telefax: (202) 623-7201 This compilation of summaries of Working Papers released during July-December 1994 is being issued as a part of the Working Paper series. It is designed to provide the reader with an overview of the research work performed by the staff during the period.
This paper analyzes long-term exchange rate modeling. The paper reviews the literature that tests for a unit root in real exchange rates and the closely related work on testing for a unit root in the residual from a regression of the nominal exchange rate on relative prices. It argues that the balance of evidence is supportive of the existence of some form of long-term exchange rate relationship. The paper highlights that the form of this relationship, however, does not accord exactly with a traditional representation of the long-term exchange rate.
In his 1972 Janeway Lectures at Princeton, James Tobin, the 1981 Nobel Prize winner for economics, submitted a proposal for a levy on international currency transactions. The idea was not greeted with enthusiasm, as the 1970s were a period of optimism and confidence in floating exchange rages. Yet, whenever currency crises erupted during the past decades, the proposal for a levy on international currency transactions would once again arise. In the 1990s, two additional facts have sharpened interest in the Tobin tax proposal. First is the growing volume of foreign exchange trading. Second, interest is coming not only from policymakers and experts concerned with the smooth functioning of financial markets. It is shared by those concerned with public financing of development--the fiscal crisis of the state as well as the growing need for international cooperation on problems such as the environment, poverty, peace and security. This work makes a systematic analysis of the proposal for a foreign exchange transactions levy. Its chapters examine the economic desirability of such a levy, its technical and political feasibility, its revenue potential, the possible uses of that revenue, and related administrative and institutional aspects.
