This book is about managing the task of forecasting profit. It builds a case for using multiple methods, providing examples of each method, and suggesting practical techniques to use in dealing with the issues and problems of accuracy in profit forecasts. All the elements that infringe on profits (costs, sales, budgeting, investment, and loan default) are examined within this framework. In addition to synthesizing the research, Professor Metcalfe has applied his own research work on forecast modeling and judgmental methods. The final result is a practical reference book for making more accurate profit forecasts.
A guide to modeling analyses for financial and sports gambling markets, with a focus on major current events Addressing the highly competitive and risky environments of current-day financial and sports gambling markets, Forecasting in Financial and Sports Gambling Markets details the dynamic process of constructing effective forecasting rules based on both graphical patterns and adaptive drift modeling (ADM) of cointegrated time series. The book uniquely identifies periods of inefficiency that these markets oscillate through and develops profitable forecasting models that capitalize on irrational behavior exhibited during these periods. Providing valuable insights based on the author's firsthand experience, this book utilizes simple, yet unique, candlestick charts to identify optimal time periods in financial markets and optimal games in sports gambling markets for which forecasting models are likely to provide profitable trading and wagering outcomes. Featuring detailed examples that utilize actual data, the book addresses various topics that promote financial and mathematical literacy, including: Higher order ARMA processes in financial markets The effects of gambling shocks in sports gambling markets Cointegrated time series with model drift Modeling volatility Throughout the book, interesting real-world applications are presented, and numerous graphical procedures illustrate favorable trading and betting opportunities, which are accompanied by mathematical developments in adaptive model forecasting and risk assessment. A related web site features updated reviews in sports and financial forecasting and various links on the topic. Forecasting in Financial and Sports Gambling Markets is an excellent book for courses on financial economics and time series analysis at the upper-undergraduate and graduate levels. The book is also a valuable reference for researchers and practitioners working in the areas of retail markets, quant funds, hedge funds, and time series. Also, anyone with a general interest in learning about how to profit from the financial and sports gambling markets will find this book to be a valuable resource.
Excel at predicting sales and forecasting trends using Microsoft Excel! If you're a sales or marketing professional, you know that forecasting sales is one of the biggest challenges you face on the job. Unlike other books on the subject, Excel Sales Forecasting For Dummies, 2nd Edition leaves arcane business school terms and complex algebraic equations at the door, focusing instead on what you can do right now to utilize the world's most popular spreadsheet program to produce forecasts you can rely on. Loaded with confidence boosters for anyone who succumbs to sweaty palms when sales predictions are mentioned, this trusted guide show you how to use the many tools Excel provides to arrange your past data, set up lists and pivot tables, use moving averages, and so much more. Before you know it, you'll become a forecaster par excellence—even if numbers aren't your jam. Choose the right forecasting method Find relationships in your data Predict seasonal sales Filter lists or turn them into charts Consider this guide your crystal ball—and start predicting the future with confidence and ease!
Richard W. Schabacker's great work, Technical Analysis and Stock Market Profits, is a worthy addition to any technical analyst's personal library or any market library. His "pioneering research" represents one of the finest works ever produced on technical analysis, and this book remains an example of the highest order of analytical quality and incisive trading wisdom. Originally devised as a practical course for investors, it is as alive, vital and instructional today as the day it was written. It paved the way for Robert Edwards and John Magee's best-selling Technical Analysis of Stock Trends - a debt which is acknowledged in their foreword: 'Part One is based in large part on the pioneer researches and writings of the late Richard Schabacker.'Schabacker presents technical analysis as a totally organized subject and comprehensively lays out the various important patterns, formations, trends, support and resistance areas, and associated supporting technical detail. He presents factors that can be confidently relied on, and gives equal attention to the blemishes and weaknesses that can upset the best of analytical forecasts: Factors which investors would do well to absorb and apply when undertaking the fascinating game of price, time and volume analysis.
The increase in smartphone usage and new technologies embedded in smart devices have led to innovative developments and applications throughout a variety of industries. However, new techniques such as spatial augmented reality are becoming more affordable for business, allowing consumers to experience and interact with the world as they never have before. AR and VR have vast implications for management and can allow companies to increase their sustainability and reduce their CO2 footprint. Managerial Challenges and Social Impacts of Virtual and Augmented Reality is a pivotal reference source that provides vital research on the applications of VR, AR, and related technologies from the perspectives of managers and marketers in the industry and discusses the social impact of these technologies. While highlighting topics such as consumer analysis, privacy ethics, and relationship marketing, this book is ideally designed for managers, marketers, technology developers, managing directors, business professionals, academicians, students, and researchers seeking current studies on the evolution of interactive technology.
Go beyond technique to master the difficult judgement calls of forecasting A variety of software can be used effectively to achieve accurate forecasting, but no software can replace the essential human component. You may be new to forecasting, or you may have mastered the statistical theory behind the software’s predictions, and even more advanced “power user” techniques for the software itself—but your forecasts will never reach peak accuracy unless you master the complex judgement calls that the software cannot make. Profit From Your Forecasting Software addresses the issues that arise regularly, and shows you how to make the correct decisions to get the most out of your software. Taking a non-mathematical approach to the various forecasting models, the discussion covers common everyday decisions such as model choice, forecast adjustment, product hierarchies, safety stock levels, model fit, testing, and much more. Clear explanations help you better understand seasonal indices, smoothing coefficients, mean absolute percentage error, and r-squared, and an exploration of psychological biases provides insight into the decision to override the software’s forecast. With a focus on choice, interpretation, and judgement, this book goes beyond the technical manuals to help you truly grasp the more intangible skills that lead to better accuracy. Explore the advantages and disadvantages of alternative forecasting methods in different situations Master the interpretation and evaluation of your software’s output Learn the subconscious biases that could affect your judgement toward intervention Find expert guidance on testing, planning, and configuration to help you get the most out of your software Relevant to sales forecasters, demand planners, and analysts across industries, Profit From Your Forecasting Software is the much sought-after “missing piece” in forecasting reference.
Gain the knowledge and skills that can help you exploit instability. No book can help you construct foolproof forecasting systems that will ensure you'll accurately predict economic turning points every time. But with Niemira and Klein's Forecasting Financial and Economic Cycles on hand, you'll be able to significantly strengthen your ability to measure, monitor, and forecast important fluctuations. Part history, it provides you with essential background material on the characteristics and causes of economic volatility. It offers accessible coverage of the classical business cycle, the five basic types of economic cycles as determined by leading economists, and evolving ideas on the forces driving instability—ranging from simple unicausal theories, more complex Keynesian theory, to new classical macroeconomics. In addition, its concise review of America's economic past highlights the lessons that can be learned from the various cycles experienced since shortly before World War II. Part handbook, Forecasting Financial and Economic Cycles presents the full spectrum of statistical techniques used to measure cycles, trends, seasonal patterns, and other vital changes, offering you step-by-step guidance on applying a specific method and detailing its uses and limitations. It goes on to show how youcan adapt particular techniques to assess, track, and predict: Industry cycles—including an objective, tailor-made forecasting tool Regional business cycles—including a survey of regional indicators International business cycles—with an international business cycle chronology Inflation cycles—plus "12 little-known facts" about this complex cycle Financial cycles—covering credit, monetary, and interest rate cycles Stock market cycles—with advice on achieving more disciplined trading Based on outstanding scholarship and years of practical experience, Forecasting Financial and Economic Cycles will serve as an invaluable tool for practitioners like you whose decision-making—and profit margin—depend on accurately assessing today's often uncertain economic climate. "Forecasting Financialand Economic Cycles provides a lively survey of the many ways that cyclical economic activity has been dissected and analyzed. With this book, an astute reader may even be able to anticipate the next cyclical turn." —Samuel D. Kahan, Chief Economist Fuji Securities, Inc. "The definitive book on the most important and enduringfeature of an often mist-bound economic landscape: the business cycle." —Alfred L. Malabre, Jr., Economics Editor, The Wall Street,Journal "Niemira and Klein cover both the theory of economic cyclesand methods for forecasting them. They provide one of the most comprehensive and current reviews of academic studies of economic cycles to be found anywhere." —Anthony F. Herbst, Professor of Finance, The University of Texas at El Paso "This book succeeds as a comprehensive, balanced, and accessible treatment of fluctuations in economic and financial activity. It should prove useful to all those in industry and finance who wish to understand and analyze the trends and changes in the modern dynamic economy." —Victor Zarnowitz, Professor Emeritus of Economics and Finance, University of Chicago
Financial Statement Analysis and Earnings Forecasting is the process of analyzing historical financial statement data for the purpose of developing forecasts of future earnings. This process is important because it is central to the valuation of companies and the securities they issue. After a short introduction, Section 2 delves into the question "Why earnings"? Focusing on dividend policy irrelevance, the author describes key analytical results that imply that expected earnings are the fundamental determinant of both equity and enterprise value. Section 3 examines the issues involved in selecting the earnings metric to forecast. Once an earnings metric has been chosen, the next question to ask is "How useful are historical accounting numbers for developing forecasts of that metric?" Sections 4 through 8 focus on this question. Section 4 discusses the general role of econometric modeling. Section 5 reviews time-series models. Section 6 examines the choices a researcher makes when using panel-data approaches and the author describes the advantages of these approaches. Section 7 reviews the role of accounting measurement in determining the usefulness of historical accounting numbers for developing forecasts of future earnings. Section 8 examines approaches for forecasting the higher moments of future earnings and section 9 provides a summary.
Budgets are like road maps -- they provide a direction for a corporates financial management. Balance sheets and statements of revenues also provide insights into how well a company is following that direction. But cash flow and cash flow forecasts are what guide the day-to-day itinerary for an organization. Budgets and cash flow are dynamic -- adjustments and changes can and should occur. If you understand what you are looking at, you can use cash flow to create better budgets and thus more accurate cash flow forecasting.Cash Flow Forecasting outlines the techniques required to undertake a detailed analysis of the cash flow dynamics of the business from both a historical and forward looking perspective. Cash Flow Forecasting explains how to: * Determine appropriate cash flow figures from pro forma financial statements * Interpret detailed cash flow forecasts and understand the difference between profit and cash flow * Conserve or generate cash in the short term * Evaluate different methods of project evaluation * Recognize the limitations of accounting information in valuing companies*Inspired by basic entry level training courses that have been developed by major international banks worldwide* Will enable students and those already in the finance profession to gain an understanding of the basic information and principles of cash flow forecasting* Includes questions with answers, study topics, practical "real world" examples and extensive bibliography
