Volatile exchange rates and how to manage them are a contentious topic whenever economic policymakers gather in international meetings. This book examines the broad parameters of exchange rate policy in light of both high-powered theory and real-world experience. What are the costs and benefits of flexible versus fixed exchange rates? How much of a role should the exchange rate play in monetary policy? Why don't volatile exchange rates destabilize inflation and output? The principal finding of this book is that using monetary policy to fight exchange rate volatility, including through the adoption of a fixed exchange rate regime, leads to greater volatility of employment, output, and inflation. In other words, the "cure" for exchange rate volatility is worse than the disease. This finding is demonstrated in economic models, in historical case studies, and in statistical analysis of the data. The book devotes considerable attention to understanding the reasons why volatile exchange rates do not destabilize inflation and output. The book concludes that many countries would benefit from allowing greater flexibility of their exchange rates in order to target monetary policy at stabilization of their domestic economies. Few, if any, countries would benefit from a move in the opposite direction.
This paper presents a rule for foreign exchange interventions (FXI), designed to preserve financial stability in floating exchange rate arrangements. The FXI rule addresses a market failure: the absence of hedging solution for tail exchange rate risk in the market (i.e. high volatility). Market impairment or overshoot of exchange rate between two equilibria could generate high volatility and threaten financial stability due to unhedged exposure to exchange rate risk in the economy. The rule uses the concept of Value at Risk (VaR) to define FXI triggers. While it provides to the market a hedge against tail risk, the rule allows the exchange rate to smoothly adjust to new equilibria. In addition, the rule is budget neutral over the medium term, encourages a prudent risk management in the market, and is more resilient to speculative attacks than other rules, such as fixed-volatility rules. The empirical methodology is backtested on Banco Mexico’s FXIs data between 2008 and 2016.
International Economics Policies and Their Theoretical Foundations: A Source Book provides information pertinent to the increasing differentiation of international economic policies among the developed and developing market economies. This book presents an analysis of fundamental principles of international economics. Organized into nine parts encompassing 33 chapters, this book begins with an overview of the certain elements of the relationship between the developing and the developed countries that the developing countries find particularly irksome. This text then analyzes the determinants of secular changes in the terms of trade and attempt to assess the influence of these changes on the development of a poor country. Other chapters consider the different concepts of the terms of trade, including the gross barter, income, net barter or commodity, and utility terms of trade. The final chapter deals with the economic scenarios for the 1980s. This book is a valuable resource for teachers, students, and government officials.
The literature on international economics has become excessively specialized. In selecting distinguished readings for this source book--including contributions by Nobel laureates such as Lawrence R. Klein, Arthur Lewis, James Meade, and Theodore W. Schultz--Professor Letiche breaks the mold. The essays concentrate on interrelation between theory and actual policy design, and this collection of classic pieces and recent economic contributions are a valued resource in universities and government offices.
''In summary, the book is valuable as a textbook both at the advanced undergraduate level and at the graduate level. It is also very useful for the economist who wants to be brought up-to-date on theoretical and empirical research on exchange rate behaviour.'' ""Journal of International Economics""
This anthology of significant writings by eminent economists is, in part, a critique of the Bretton Woods system of fixed exchange rates, which was very successful at the time it was instituted but which, because of its rigidity, failed in the end to address the economic problems of the post-war era. The authors suggest that the stock market crash of 1987 might not have occurred if market forces had been allowed simply to run their course in the absence of any real economic restrictions. Contributors include: Harry Johnson, Fritz Machlup, Milton Friedman, Gottfried Haberler, Henry Wallich, Alan Greenspan, Leo Melamed, Jacques de Larosiere, Beryl Sprinkel, Michael L. Mussa, Martin Feldstein, Jacob Frenkel, Rudiger Dornbusch, Morris Goldstein, Rachel McCulloch, Paul R. Krugman, William H. Branson, Thomas D. Willett, J. Carter Murphy.
This update of the guidelines published in 2001 sets forth the underlying framework for the Reserves Data Template and provides operational advice for its use. The updated version also includes three new appendices aimed at assisting member countries in reporting the required data.