Fiscal Rules and the Sovereign Default Premium

Fiscal Rules and the Sovereign Default Premium

Author: Juan Carlos Hatchondo

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2012-01-01

Total Pages: 28

ISBN-13: 1463948875

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This paper finds optimal fiscal rule parameter values and measures the effects of imposing fiscal rules using a default model calibrated to an economy that in the absence of a fiscal rule pays a significant sovereign default premium. The paper also studies the case in which the government conducts a voluntary debt restructuring to capture the capital gains from the increase in its debt market value implied by a rule announcement. In addition, the paper shows how debt ceilings may reduce the procyclicality of fiscal policy and thus consumption volatility.


Debt Dilution and Sovereign Default Risk

Debt Dilution and Sovereign Default Risk

Author: Dr. Leonardo Martinez

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2011-03-01

Total Pages: 29

ISBN-13: 1455225045

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We propose a modification to a baseline sovereign default framework that allows us to quantify the importance of debt dilution in accounting for the level and volatility of the interest rate spread paid by sovereigns. We measure the effects of debt dilution by comparing the simulations of the baseline model (with debt dilution) with the ones of the modified model without dilution. We calibrate the baseline model to mimic the mean and standard deviation of the spread, as well as the external debt level, the mean debt duration and a measure of default frequency in the data. We find that, even without commitment to future repayment policies and withoutcontingency of sovereign debt, if the sovereign could eliminate debt dilution, the number of default per 100 years decreases from 3.10 to 0.42. The mean spread decreases from 7.38% to 0.57%. The standard deviation of the spread decreases from 2.45 to 0.72. Default risk falls in part because of a reduction of the level of sovereign debt (36% of the face value and of 11% of the market value). But we show that the most important effect of dilution on default risk results from a shift in the set of government''s borrowing opportunities. Our analysis is also relevant for the study of other credit markets where the debt dilution problem could be present.


The Dynamics of Sovereign Debt Crises and Bailouts

The Dynamics of Sovereign Debt Crises and Bailouts

Author: Mr.Francisco Roch

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2016-09-06

Total Pages: 46

ISBN-13: 1475533241

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Motivated by the recent European debt crisis, this paper investigates the scope for a bailout guarantee in a sovereign debt crisis. Defaults may arise from negative income shocks, government impatience or a "sunspot"-coordinated buyers strike. We introduce a bailout agency, and characterize the minimal actuarially fair intervention that guarantees the no-buyers-strike fundamental equilibrium, relying on the market for residual financing. The intervention makes it cheaper for governments to borrow, inducing them borrow more, leaving default probabilities possibly rather unchanged. The maximal backstop will be pulled precisely when fundamentals worsen.


Fiscal Rules and the Sovereign Default Premium

Fiscal Rules and the Sovereign Default Premium

Author: Juan Carlos Hatchondo

Publisher:

Published: 2015

Total Pages: 44

ISBN-13:

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We use a sovereign default model to study the effects of introducing limits to the decision-making capabilities of governments-fiscal rules. We show that optimal limits to the debt level vary greatly across parameterizations of the model that deliver different levels of debt tolerance. In contrast, optimal limits to the sovereign premium paid by the government are very similar across parameterizations. Since levels of debt tolerance are difficult to identify and vary both across countries and over time, and political constraints often force common fiscal rule targets across countries, these findings indicate that sovereign-premium limits may be preferable to debt limits.


Managing the Sovereign-Bank Nexus

Managing the Sovereign-Bank Nexus

Author: Mr.Giovanni Dell'Ariccia

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2018-09-07

Total Pages: 54

ISBN-13: 1484359623

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This paper reviews empirical and theoretical work on the links between banks and their governments (the bank-sovereign nexus). How significant is this nexus? What do we know about it? To what extent is it a source of concern? What is the role of policy intervention? The paper concludes with a review of recent policy proposals.


Political Economy In Macro Economics

Political Economy In Macro Economics

Author: Allan Drazen

Publisher: Orient Blackswan

Published: 2004

Total Pages: 796

ISBN-13: 9788125026204

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Political Economy in Macroeconomics is the first full-length work on the issues of new political economy. This is a multi-disciplinary subject to which increasing numbers of economists are dedicating their time. It analyses the influence of political forces on economic policy by using the analytical tools of economics. However, while emphasising the use of economic models, Drazen has also included related issues such as politics and political philosophy in this volume, and therefore the book contains much conceptual discussion as well as empirical data. At the moment there is no text that covers political economy in macroeconomics at the postgraduate and advanced undergraduate level. This book will fill that gap. It is a survey, textbook, and critique all in one (Dani Rodrik, Harvard University), and has established the benchmark for years to come, in terms of coverage and depth of critical assessment (Leonardo Bartolini, Journal of International Economics).


Sub-National Credit Risk and Sovereign Bailouts

Sub-National Credit Risk and Sovereign Bailouts

Author: Ms.Eva Jenkner

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2014-01-30

Total Pages: 29

ISBN-13: 1484399137

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Studies have shown that markets may underprice sub-national governments’ risk on the implicit assumption that these entities would be bailed out by their central government in case of financial difficulties. However, the question of whether sovereigns pay a premium on their own borrowing as a result of (implicitly or explicitly) guaranteeing sub-entities’ debt has been explored only little. We use an event study approach with separate equations for two levels of government to test for a simultaneous increase in sovereign risk premia and decrease in sub-national risk premia—or a de facto transfer of risk from the latter to the former—on the day a sovereign bailout is announced. Using daily financial market data for Spain and its autonomous regions from January 2010 to June 2013, we find support for our risk transfer hypothesis. We estimate that the Spanish sovereign’s spread may have increased by around 70 basis points as a result of the central government’s support for fiscally distressed comunidades autónomas.


Sovereign Debt Restructurings 1950-2010

Sovereign Debt Restructurings 1950-2010

Author: Mr.Udaibir S. Das

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2012-08-01

Total Pages: 128

ISBN-13: 1475505531

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This paper provides a comprehensive survey of pertinent issues on sovereign debt restructurings, based on a newly constructed database. This is the first complete dataset of sovereign restructuring cases, covering the six decades from 1950–2010; it includes 186 debt exchanges with foreign banks and bondholders, and 447 bilateral debt agreements with the Paris Club. We present new stylized facts on the outcome and process of debt restructurings, including on the size of haircuts, creditor participation, and legal aspects. In addition, the paper summarizes the relevant empirical literature, analyzes recent restructuring episodes, and discusses ongoing debates on crisis resolution mechanisms, credit default swaps, and the role of collective action clauses.


The Economics of Sovereign Debt and Default

The Economics of Sovereign Debt and Default

Author: Mark Aguiar

Publisher: Princeton University Press

Published: 2021-12-21

Total Pages: 200

ISBN-13: 0691189242

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An integrated approach to the economics of sovereign default Fiscal crises and sovereign default repeatedly threaten the stability and growth of economies around the world. Mark Aguiar and Manuel Amador provide a unified and tractable theoretical framework that elucidates the key economics behind sovereign debt markets, shedding light on the frictions and inefficiencies that prevent the smooth functioning of these markets, and proposing sensible approaches to sovereign debt management. The Economics of Sovereign Debt and Default looks at the core friction unique to sovereign debt—the lack of strong legal enforcement—and goes on to examine additional frictions such as deadweight costs of default, vulnerability to runs, the incentive to “dilute” existing creditors, and sovereign debt’s distortion of investment and growth. The book uses the tractable framework to isolate how each additional friction affects the equilibrium outcome, and illustrates its counterpart using state-of-the-art computational modeling. The novel approach presented here contrasts the outcome of a constrained efficient allocation—one chosen to maximize the joint surplus of creditors and government—with the competitive equilibrium outcome. This allows for a clear analysis of the extent to which equilibrium prices efficiently guide the government’s debt and default decisions, and of what drives divergences with the efficient outcome. Providing an integrated approach to sovereign debt and default, this incisive and authoritative book is an ideal resource for researchers and graduate students interested in this important topic.


Global Waves of Debt

Global Waves of Debt

Author: M. Ayhan Kose

Publisher: World Bank Publications

Published: 2021-03-03

Total Pages: 403

ISBN-13: 1464815453

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The global economy has experienced four waves of rapid debt accumulation over the past 50 years. The first three debt waves ended with financial crises in many emerging market and developing economies. During the current wave, which started in 2010, the increase in debt in these economies has already been larger, faster, and broader-based than in the previous three waves. Current low interest rates mitigate some of the risks associated with high debt. However, emerging market and developing economies are also confronted by weak growth prospects, mounting vulnerabilities, and elevated global risks. A menu of policy options is available to reduce the likelihood that the current debt wave will end in crisis and, if crises do take place, will alleviate their impact.