First-Strike Stability and Strategic Defenses: Part 2 of a Methodology for Evaluating Strategic Forces
First-Strike Stability and Strategic Defenses: Part 2 of a Methodology for Evaluating Strategic Forces

Author:

Publisher:

Published: 1990

Total Pages: 69

ISBN-13:

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First-strike stability between two adversaries is robust when both leaders perceive no great difference between the expected 'cost' to each side of striking first and the expected 'cost' of incurring a first strike if one withholds his attack. Conclusions include: (1) First-strike stability is currently quite robust. (2) Deployment of strategic nationwide ballistic missile defenses by either superpower in competition with the other's strategic offenses generally erodes first-strike stability. (3) Neither country would be likely to continue to adhere to agreements that constrain and reduce offensive arms under the specter of intent by the other to deploy robust strategic defenses in contravention to the 1972 Anti-Ballistic Missile (ABM) Treaty. (4) There may be a 'window' in which United States and Soviet strategic nationwide BMD could be robust in defending against 'limited' attacks (third-country ballistic missile attacks, unauthorized attacks, and accidental launches), yet not so robust that first-strike stability is seriously undermined. (5) The level of U.S. defenses attributed to the so-called 'Phase I' deployment seems to go beyond the upper bounds of this 'window' even with current offensive forces, and certainly with offensive forces constrained by START I. (6) Any attempt to transition to a situation in which each side's strategic defenses dominate the opponent's ballistic missiles must include a careful negotiation on the critical role of bomber forces in maintaining firs-strike stability.

First-strike Stability and Strategic Defenses
First-strike Stability and Strategic Defenses

Author: Glenn A. Kent

Publisher:

Published: 1990

Total Pages: 55

ISBN-13: 9780833011022

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A pressing issue facing the United States in the early 1990s centers on whether, and for what strategic purposes, the United States should deploy nationwide ballistic missile defenses (BMD). One argument is that such defenses could enhance stability. This report extends the methodology developed in R-3765 to assess the effect of BMD deployments on first-strike stability. The authors conclude that (1) first-strike stability is currently robust; (2) deployment of strategic nationwide BMD by either superpower in competition with the other's strategic offenses generally erodes first-strike stability; (3) there might be a level at which U.S. and Soviet BMD could effectively defend against third-country ballistic missile attacks, unauthorized attacks, and accidental launches, without being so robust that it would undermine first-strike stability; (4) the buildup of U.S. defenses during Phase I deployment seems to exceed this level; and (5) maintaining effective bomber forces on both sides would be critical to any attempt to move from offense dominance to defense dominance.

Strategic Stability
Strategic Stability

Author: Elbridge A. Colby

Publisher: Army War College Press

Published: 2013

Total Pages: 452

ISBN-13:

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What is strategic stability and why is it important? This edited collection offers the most current authoritative survey of this topic, which is central to U.S. strategy in the field of nuclear weapons and great power relations. A variety of authors, leading experts in the field of strategic issues and regional studies, offer both theoretical and practical insights into the basic concepts associated with strategic stability, what implications these have for the United States as well as key regions such as the Middle East, and perspectives on strategic stability in Russia and China. Readers will develop a deeper and more developed understanding of this concent from this engaging and informative work.

Nuclear Deterrence And Global Security In Transition
Nuclear Deterrence And Global Security In Transition

Author: David Goldfischer

Publisher: Routledge

Published: 2019-04-08

Total Pages: 189

ISBN-13: 0429715358

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This book contains papers presented at a conference held at the University of California's Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation in 1991. The papers reflect the spectrum of thought in the expert community that is likely to frame the policy debate over the future of nuclear deterrence. .

A New Nuclear Century
A New Nuclear Century

Author: Stephen J. Cimbala

Publisher: Bloomsbury Publishing USA

Published: 2002-05-30

Total Pages: 206

ISBN-13: 0313012024

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Cimbala and Scouras examine the issues related to the control of nuclear weapons in the early 21st century. These issues are both technical and policy oriented; science and values are commingled. This means that arguments about nuclear strategy, arms control, and proliferation are apt to be contentious and confusing. The authors seek to provide readers with a fuller, more accurate understanding of the issues involved. They begin by analyzing the crazy mathematics of nuclear arms races and arms control that preoccupied analysts and policymakers during the Cold War. After examining stability modeling, they argue for a more comprehensive definition of strategic stability and they relate this more inclusive concept to the current relationship between the United States and Russia—one characterized by cooperation as well as competition. They then use the concept of friction to analyze how the gap between theory and practice might influence nuclear force operations and arms control. The problem of nuclear weapons spread or proliferation is then considered from the vantage point of both theory and policy. They conclude with an analysis of whether the United States might get by in the 21st century with fewer legs of its strategic nuclear triplet than weapons based on land, at sea, and airborne. A provocative analysis for arms control policymakers, strategists, and students, scholars, and other researchers involved with nuclear weapons issues.