External Adjustment and the Global Crisis
External Adjustment and the Global Crisis

Author: Mr.Gian Milesi-Ferretti

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Published: 2011-08-01

Total Pages: 0

ISBN-13: 9781462304240

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After widening substantially in the period preceding the global financial crisis, current account imbalances across the world have contracted to a significant extent. This paper analyzes the factors underlying this process of external adjustment. It finds that countries whose pre-crisis current account balances were in excess of what could be explained by economic fundamentals have experienced the largest contractions in their external balance. External adjustment in deficit countries was achieved primarily through demand compression, rather than expenditure switching. Changes in other investment flows were the main channel of financial account adjustment, with official external assistance and ECB liquidity cushioning the exit of private capital flows for some countries.

Global Imbalances and External Adjustment after the Crisis
Global Imbalances and External Adjustment after the Crisis

Author: Mr.Philip R. Lane

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2014-08-12

Total Pages: 45

ISBN-13: 149836361X

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This paper has two objectives. First, it reviews the recent dynamics of global imbalances (both “flow” and “stock” imbalances), with a special focus on the shifting position of Latin America in the global distribution. Second, it examines the cross-country variation in external adjustment over 2008-2012. In particular, it shows how pre-crisis external imbalances have strong predictive power for post-crisis macroeconomic outcomes, allowing for variation across different exchange rate regimes. We emphasize that the bulk of external adjustment has taken the form of “expenditure reduction”, with “expenditure switching” only playing a limited role.

External Adjustment
External Adjustment

Author: Maurice Obstfeld

Publisher:

Published: 2004

Total Pages: 64

ISBN-13:

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"Gross stocks of foreign assets have increased rapidly relative to national outputs since 1990, and the short-run capital gains and losses on those assets can amount to significant fractions of GDP. These fluctuations in asset values render the national income and product account measure of the current account balance increasingly inadequate as a summary of the change in a country's net foreign assets. Nonetheless, unusually large current account imbalances, especially deficits, should remain high on policymakers' list of concerns, even for the richer and less credit-constrained countries. Extreme imbalances signal the need for large and perhaps abrupt real exchange rate changes in the future, changes that might have undesired political and financial consequences given the incompleteness of domestic and international asset markets. Furthermore, of the two sources of the change in net foreign assets -- the current account and the capital gain on the net foreign asset position -- the former is better understood and more amenable to policy influence. Systematic government attempts to manipulate international asset values in order to change the net foreign asset position could have a destabilizing effect on market expectations"--NBER website

Consumption, Exchange Rate, and External Adjustment During a Crisis
Consumption, Exchange Rate, and External Adjustment During a Crisis

Author: Wenbo Yu

Publisher:

Published: 2022

Total Pages: 0

ISBN-13:

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I build a two-country open economy model featuring asymmetric financial frictions to jointly explain two puzzling observations during the 2008 global financial crisis: (1) the real consumption growth declined more in foreign countries than in the US; (2) the US dollar appreciated against foreign currencies despite its sharp net foreign asset position (NFA) deterioration. Subject to a milder financial constraint, the US holds more risky assets in tranquil times and therefore, is more exposed to financial risks. When a crisis unfolds, the US bears heavier capital losses and is forced to liquidate its risky asset holdings to deleverage. This deleveraging process results in a capital retrenchment in the US, which smooths the US consumption and leads to a US dollar appreciation. Meanwhile, the US NFA deterioration is mainly due to the valuation effect, which is unimportant to the international risk-sharing, a fact that has been overlooked in the literature.

Global Economic Crisis
Global Economic Crisis

Author: Maurice Obstfeld

Publisher: Edward Elgar Publishing

Published: 2012-01-01

Total Pages: 291

ISBN-13: 178100630X

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In 2008, the global economy experienced the most severe crash since World War II. A sharp collapse in international trade followed, leaving no country on the globe immune to a sequence of economic shocks. This timely book explores many of the key issues raised in the wake of the global economic crisis and provides an in-depth analysis of crisis transmission to emerging markets. The expert contributors compare the recent crisis with earlier crises, explore international aspects of the crisis from the perspectives of markets and trade, and examine macroeconomic policy responses. In so doing, they address important questions including: How did this crisis differ from those suffered previously? How and why did flaws in financial markets contribute to the crisis? How important were global imbalances and global overheating in explaining the global meltdown? Did different pre-crisis fundamentals generate different post-crisis performances? And, how severe were the economic shocks to countries such as Korea and other emerging economies? Academics, students and policymakers in the fields of economics, international economics, finance money and banking and Asian studies will find this book to be a thought-provoking and stimulating read.

Economic Crisis and Policy Choice
Economic Crisis and Policy Choice

Author: Joan M. Nelson

Publisher: Princeton University Press

Published: 1990-03

Total Pages: 392

ISBN-13: 0691023107

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The acute economic pressures of the 1980s have forced virtually all of Latin America and Africa and some countries in Asia into painful austerity programs and difficult economic reforms. Scholars have intensively analyzed the economics of this situation, but they have given much less attention to the political forces involved. In this volume a number of eminent contributors analyze the politics of adjustment in thirteen countries and nineteen governments, drawing comparisons not only across the full set of cases but also within clusters selected to clarify specific issues. Why do some governments respond promptly to signs of economic trouble, while others muddle indecisively for years? Why do some confine their response to temporary macroeconomic measures, while others adopt broader, even sweeping, programs of reform? What leads some countries to experiment with heterodox approaches, while most, however reluctantly, pursue orthodox courses? Why, confronted with intense political protest, have some governments persisted while others have altered or abandoned course? The answers to these questions are political, not economic, and they are examined here by Thomas M. Callaghy, Stephan Haggard, Miles Kahler, Robert R. Kauman, Joan M. Nelson, and Barbara Stallings.

Global Waves of Debt
Global Waves of Debt

Author: M. Ayhan Kose

Publisher: World Bank Publications

Published: 2021-03-03

Total Pages: 403

ISBN-13: 1464815453

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The global economy has experienced four waves of rapid debt accumulation over the past 50 years. The first three debt waves ended with financial crises in many emerging market and developing economies. During the current wave, which started in 2010, the increase in debt in these economies has already been larger, faster, and broader-based than in the previous three waves. Current low interest rates mitigate some of the risks associated with high debt. However, emerging market and developing economies are also confronted by weak growth prospects, mounting vulnerabilities, and elevated global risks. A menu of policy options is available to reduce the likelihood that the current debt wave will end in crisis and, if crises do take place, will alleviate their impact.

External Finance, Sudden Stops, and Financial Crisis
External Finance, Sudden Stops, and Financial Crisis

Author: Mr.F. Gulcin Ozkan

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2010-07-01

Total Pages: 36

ISBN-13: 1455201413

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This paper develops a two-country DSGE model to investigate the transmission of a global financial crisis to a small open economy. We find that economies hit by a sudden stop arising from financial distress in the global economy are likely to face a more prolonged crisis than sudden stop episodes of domestic origin. Moreover, in contrast to the existing literature, our results suggest that the greater a country's trade integration with the rest of the world, the greater the response of its macroeconomic aggregates to a sudden stop of capital flows.