Exports, Inflation, and Growth
Exports, Inflation, and Growth

Author: Thorvaldur Gylfason

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 1997-09-01

Total Pages: 40

ISBN-13: 1451854137

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This paper identifies some of the main determinants of exports and economic growth in cross-sectional data from the World Bank, covering 160 countries in the period 1985-1994. First, the linkages between the propensity to export and population, per capita income, agriculture, primary exports, and inflation are studied by statistical methods. Then, the relationship between economic growth and some of the above-mentioned determinants of exports and investment are scrutinized the same way. The main conclusion is that, in the period under review, high inflation and an abundance of natural resources tended to be associated with low exports and slow growth.

The Global Trade Slowdown
The Global Trade Slowdown

Author: Cristina Constantinescu

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2015-01-21

Total Pages: 44

ISBN-13: 1498399134

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This paper focuses on the sluggish growth of world trade relative to income growth in recent years. The analysis uses an empirical strategy based on an error correction model to assess whether the global trade slowdown is structural or cyclical. An estimate of the relationship between trade and income in the past four decades reveals that the long-term trade elasticity rose sharply in the 1990s, but declined significantly in the 2000s even before the global financial crisis. These results suggest that trade is growing slowly not only because of slow growth of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), but also because of a structural change in the trade-GDP relationship in recent years. The available evidence suggests that the explanation may lie in the slowing pace of international vertical specialization rather than increasing protection or the changing composition of trade and GDP.

Commodity Terms of Trade
Commodity Terms of Trade

Author: International Monetary Fund

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2009-09-01

Total Pages: 36

ISBN-13: 1451873522

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We compile a historical dataset covering nearly 40 years of booms and busts in the commodity terms of trade of over 150 countries. We discuss the characteristics of these events and their effects on macroeconomic performance and, in particular, compare the most recent commodity-price cycle with its historical precedents.

IMF Staff Papers
IMF Staff Papers

Author: International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 1963-01-01

Total Pages: 229

ISBN-13: 1451956029

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This paper discusses effects of inflation on economic development. A mild inflation may well encourage little, or no, evasion of the “inflation tax.” On the other hand, a strong inflation, and frequently a mild one also, will lead to community reactions which have effects like those of widespread tax evasion. A development policy may have wider aims than the encouragement of a high level of investment. Inflation has two effects on the desire for liquidity, which are related to the two basic reasons why individuals and businesses wish to hold liquid assets—the speculative and precautionary motives. Inflation increases the value of effective liquidity, thereby raising the community's desire for it, but it makes the most generally accepted store of liquidity unacceptable sources of protection. The control of inflation is only one of the problems facing a government wishing to encourage rapid economic development. The fight against illiteracy, the reform of bureaucratic practices, the building of basic sanitary facilities for the eradication of endemic diseases, the substitution of competitive for monopolistic trade practices, the encouragement of a widespread spirit of entrepreneurship, and the creation of an adequate amount of social capital, may be important prerequisites for rapid growth.

The Global Trade Slowdown and Its Implications for Emerging Asia
The Global Trade Slowdown and Its Implications for Emerging Asia

Author: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserv

Publisher: Createspace Independent Publishing Platform

Published: 2016-11-18

Total Pages: 34

ISBN-13: 9781542904476

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The global economy is at a critical juncture today. According to the International Monetary Fund's latest World Economic Outlook, global gross domestic product (GDP) is set to grow at only 3.1 percent this year, the lowest rate of growth since the Global Financial Crisis. Investment and productivity remain subdued, despite extremely low and even negative interest rates in many economies. One key aspect of global weakness that is of particular relevance to emerging Asian economies is the sharp slowdown in global trade. This slowdown represents a notable departure from the "normal" times of the past few decades, and is the subject of my remarks today.

Export Diversification in Low-Income Countries and Small States: Do Country Size and Income Level Matter?
Export Diversification in Low-Income Countries and Small States: Do Country Size and Income Level Matter?

Author: Dongyeol Lee

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2019-05-24

Total Pages: 24

ISBN-13: 1498315658

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Export structure is less diversified in low-income countries (LICs) and especially small states that face resource constraints and small economic size. This paper explores the potential linkages between export structure and economic growth and its volatility in LICs and small states, using a range of indices of export concentration differing in the coverage of industries. The empirical analysis finds that export diversification may promote economic growth and reduce economic volatility in these countries. Furthermore, the analysis demonstrates that the economic benefits of export diversification differ by country size and income level—there are bigger benefits for relatively larger and poorer countries within the group of LICs and small states.

Trade Liberalization
Trade Liberalization

Author: Romain Wacziarg

Publisher: Edward Elgar Publishing

Published: 2018

Total Pages: 0

ISBN-13: 9781788111492

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This compelling two-volume collection presents the major literary contributions to the economic analysis of the consequences of trade liberalization on growth, productivity, labor market outcomes and economic inequality. Examining the classical theories that stress gains from trade stemming from comparative advantage, the selection also comprises more recent theories of imperfect competition, where any potential gains from trade can stem from competitive effects or the international transmission of knowledge. Empirical contributions provide evidence regarding the explanatory power of these various theories, including work on the effects of trade openness on economic growth, wages, and income inequality, as well as evidence on the effects of trade on firm productivity, entry and exit. Prefaced by an original introduction from the editor, the collection will to be an invaluable research resource for academics, practitioners and those drawn to this fascinating topic.

Trade Facilitation and the Global Economy
Trade Facilitation and the Global Economy

Author: Collectif

Publisher: OECD

Published: 2018-05-30

Total Pages: 161

ISBN-13: 9264300317

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In a globalised world, where goods cross borders many times as intermediate and as final products, trade facilitation is essential to lowering overall trade costs and increasing economic welfare, in particular for developing and emerging economies. Facilitation efforts undertaken by various countries around the world also show that the benefits of such measures clearly compensate the costs and challenges posed by their implementation.

Trade and Development Report 2011
Trade and Development Report 2011

Author: United Nations

Publisher:

Published: 2011-09

Total Pages: 0

ISBN-13: 9789211128222

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What lessons have policy makers drawn from the global financial and economic crisis to reform the international monetary and financial system and the design of macroeconomic policies? The enthusiasm about system reform and a reorientation of macroeconomic policies has not lasted. Reforms of financial regulations are progressing slowly and only at the national level, monetary system reform is limited. After an interlude that some considered as a return to Keynesianism, the orientation of macroeconomic policy, especially fiscal policy, is back to business as usual. This will hinder a sustained recovery of the world economy and open the door for new financial crises. Thus, the rethinking of policies and reshaping the financial and monetary system remain an urgent task. The Report makes concrete proposals on how, and in which priority areas, to advance with the strengthening regulation of the financial sector and commodity markets, reform of the international monetary system, and the reorientation of fiscal policy.