Exchange Rate Fluctuations and Trade Flows
Exchange Rate Fluctuations and Trade Flows

Author: Mr.Giovanni Dell'Ariccia

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 1998-08-01

Total Pages: 28

ISBN-13: 1451852959

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This paper analyzes the effects of exchange rate volatility on bilateral trade flows. Through use of a gravity model and panel data from western Europe, exchange rate uncertainty is found to have a negative effect on international trade. The results seem to be robust with respect to the particular measures representing exchange rate uncertainty. Particular attention is reserved for problems of simultaneous causality. The negative correlation between trade and bilateral volatility remains significant after controlling for the simultaneity bias. However, a Hausman test rejects the hypothesis of the absence of simultaneous causality.

Exchange Rate Policy for MERCOSUR
Exchange Rate Policy for MERCOSUR

Author: Silvia Marengo

Publisher: Grove/Atlantic

Published: 1998

Total Pages: 260

ISBN-13:

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The question as to the choice of the optimal exchange rate system to be adopted among MERCOSUR countries becomes critical if MERCOSUR states attempt to go further along the path of increasing their trade flows of goods and services. The study contributes to filling this gap by providing some alternative answers to this issue. The analysis has been based on three pillars: a theoretical review of exchange rate systems: a review of the European experience; and an analysis of the Latin American experience.

Exchange Rates in South America's Emerging Markets
Exchange Rates in South America's Emerging Markets

Author: Luis Molinas Sosa

Publisher: Cambridge University Press

Published: 2020-07-16

Total Pages: 58

ISBN-13: 1108897924

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Since Meese and Rogoff (1983) results showed that no model could outperform a random walk in predicting exchange rates. Many papers have tried to find a forecasting methodology that could beat the random walk, at least for certain forecasting periods. This Element compares the Purchasing Power Parity, the Uncovered Interest Rate, the Sticky Price, the Bayesian Model Averaging, and the Bayesian Vector Autoregression models to the random walk benchmark in forecasting exchange rates between most South American currencies and the US Dollar, and between the Paraguayan Guarani and the Brazilian Real and the Argentinian Peso. Forecasts are evaluated under the criteria of Root Mean Square Error, Direction of Change, and the Diebold-Mariano statistic. The results indicate that the two Bayesian models have greater forecasting power and that there is little evidence in favor of using the other three fundamentals models, except Purchasing Power Parity at longer forecasting horizons.

Full Dollarization
Full Dollarization

Author: Andrew Berg

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2000

Total Pages: 27

ISBN-13: 1451935048

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Analyzes the costs and benefits of full dollarization, or the adoption by one country of another country's currency. Potential advantages include lower borrowing costs and deeper integration into world markets. But countries lose the ability to devalue, and become dependent on the U.S. Compares with currency board option.

Regional Monetary Integration
Regional Monetary Integration

Author: Peter B. Kenen

Publisher: Cambridge University Press

Published: 2007-11-26

Total Pages: 199

ISBN-13: 1139466038

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This book surveys the prospects for regional monetary integration in various parts of the world. Beginning with a brief review of the theory of optimal currency areas, it goes on to examine the structure and functioning of the European Monetary Union, then turns to the prospects for monetary integration elsewhere in the world - North America, South America, and East Asia. Such cooperation may take the form of full-fledged monetary unions or looser forms of monetary cooperation. The book emphasizes the economic and institutional requirements for successful monetary integration, including the need for a single central bank in the case of a full-fledged monetary union, and the corresponding need for multinational institutions to safeguard its independence and assure its accountability. The book concludes with a chapter on the implications of monetary integration for the United States and the US dollar.

Economic Integration and the Exchange Rate Regime
Economic Integration and the Exchange Rate Regime

Author: Mr.Vivek B. Arora

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2001-05-01

Total Pages: 21

ISBN-13: 1451974949

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The Canadian experience with a floating exchange rate regime can shed some light on the question of whether A question of current interest in many parts of the world is whether with growing economic integration among groups of countries makes a fixed exchange rate, or even a common currency, becomes more desirable. This paper looks at the lessons that one may draw from tThe Canadian experience, with a floating exchange rate regime, especially since the inception of the 1989 U.S.-Canada Free Trade Agreement, suggests. We find that exchange rate flexibility has not prevented economic integration between Canada and the United States from increasing substantially, during the 1990s, and has played a useful role in buffering the Canadian economy against asymmetric external shocks. A fixed exchange rate thus does not seem to be a prerequisite for economic integration. It may, however, yield substantial have benefits for some countries that lack monetary credibility or that may be tempted by self-destructive beggar-thy-neighbor policies.