Although Europe in the aggregate is a not a major contributor to global current account imbalances, its trade and financial linkages with the rest of the world mean that it will still be affected by a shift in the current configuration of external deficits and surpluses. We assess the macroeconomic impact on Europe of global current account adjustment under alternative scenarios, emphasizing both trade and financial channels. Finally, we consider heterogeneous exposure across individual European economies to external adjustment shocks.
The past few decades have witnessed the emergence of economic imbalances at the world level and within the euro zone. The failure of mainstream economics to accurately predict financial crises, or model the effects of finance-led growth, highlights the need for alternative frameworks. A key text, Global Imbalances and Financial Capitalism: Stock-Flow-Consistent Modelling demonstrates that Stock-Flow-Consistent models are well adapted to study this growth regime due to their ability to analyse the real and financial sides of the economy in an integrated way. This approach is combined with an analysis of exchange rate misalignments using the Fundamental Equilibrium Exchange Rate (FEER) methodology, which serves to give a synthetic view of international imbalances. Together, these models describe how global and regional imbalances are created, as well as suggest appropriate tools through which they may be reduced. The book also considers alternative economic policies in the euro zone (international risk sharing, fiscal federalism, eurobonds, European investments, a multispeed euro zone) alongside alternative monetary policies. In particular, it examines the possibilities of using SDR (Special Drawing Rights) as a reserve asset to be issued to fight a global recession, to support the development of low-income countries, or as an anchor to improve global monetary stability. This text will be of interest to students, scholars, and researchers of economic theory and international monetary economics. It will also appeal to professional organisations who supervise international relations.
"Gross stocks of foreign assets have increased rapidly relative to national outputs since 1990, and the short-run capital gains and losses on those assets can amount to significant fractions of GDP. These fluctuations in asset values render the national income and product account measure of the current account balance increasingly inadequate as a summary of the change in a country's net foreign assets. Nonetheless, unusually large current account imbalances, especially deficits, should remain high on policymakers' list of concerns, even for the richer and less credit-constrained countries. Extreme imbalances signal the need for large and perhaps abrupt real exchange rate changes in the future, changes that might have undesired political and financial consequences given the incompleteness of domestic and international asset markets. Furthermore, of the two sources of the change in net foreign assets -- the current account and the capital gain on the net foreign asset position -- the former is better understood and more amenable to policy influence. Systematic government attempts to manipulate international asset values in order to change the net foreign asset position could have a destabilizing effect on market expectations"--NBER website
With high growth rates in Asia, most notably in China, India, and Southeast and Central Asia, Eurasia's economic center of gravity is rapidly shifting to the East. At the same time, most of Europe faces serious barriers to growth in the long term. The volume examines the causes and consequences of this major shift in economic power and considers the options available to policymakers in various parts of Europe and Asia. The ten chapters in this book focus on long-term challenges of globalization rather than short-term problems of individual countries and explore two themes: global macroeconomic imbalances and growth. This work is based on a CASE-Center for Social and Economic Research and CASE-Ukraine conference.
Crafting stimulus packages and financial bailouts to address immediate problems has for many reasons been a priority for policymakers. In this Council Special Report, however, Steven Dunaway argues that policymakers must go beyond these steps and tackle one of the root causes of today's crisis: imbalances between savings and investment in major countries. The report analyzes the nature of these imbalances, which occur when some countries, such as the United States, run large current account (essentially trade) deficits while others, such as China, maintain large surpluses. Dunaway identifies three features of the international financial system that have allowed the imbalances to persist, features that involve both floating and managed exchange rates as well as the issuance of reserve assets. In particular, he notes that the United States' status as an issuer of such assets has enabled it to finance a current account deficit. The report then prescribes a variety of steps to address global imbalances. Beyond stimulus packages around the world, it urges measures to raise savings (principally government savings) in the United States, reform labor and product markets in Europe and Japan to increase competition and flexibility, and boost domestic consumption in China. Finally, the report advocates improving International Monetary Fund (IMF) surveillance of member states' economic policies by reducing the role of the Fund's executive board and depoliticizing the selection of its senior management.
This open access book explores the most recent trends in the EU in terms of development, progress, and performance. Ten years after the 2008 economic crisis, and amidst a digital revolution that is intensifying the development race, the European Union, and especially Central and Eastern Europe, are ardently searching for their development priorities. Against this background, by relying on a cross-national perspective, the authors reflect upon the developmental challenges of the moment, such as sustainable development, reducing inequality, ensuring social cohesion, and driving the digital revolution. They particularly focus on the relation between the less-developed Eastern part of the EU and its more developed Western counterpart, and discuss the consequences of this development gap in detail. Lastly, the book presents a range of case studies from different areas of governance, such as economy and commerce, health services, education, migration and public opinion in order to investigate the trends most likely to impact the European Union's medium and long-term development.
This book offers a critical perspective from which to observe evolution of the Euro Area and the European Union in these times of growing economic and political conflict.
The EU’s Role in Fighting Global Imbalances looks at the role of the European Union in addressing some of the greatest challenges of our time: poverty, protectionism, climate change, and human trafficking. The recent crisis has depleted the Union’s economic and political resources. At the same time the Union is, like never before, expected to confront these global challenges on the world political arena, where new regional power centres are establishing themselves. Based on a broad and interdisciplinary understanding of the concept of global imbalances, this book argues that these challenges follow from pervasive global imbalances, which at root are economic, political, and legal in character. Contributions from ten leading scholars in the fields of economics, law, and political science provide in-depth analyses of three key dimensions of EU foreign policy, namely: the internal challenges facing the EU, as its 28 member countries struggle to coordinate their actions; the external challenges facing the EU on the global arena, in areas where global imbalances are particularly pervasive, and where measures taken by the Union can have an important impact; and the EU´s performance on the global arena, in the eyes of other key actors. This policy-oriented, interdisciplinary volume offers real insight into the European Union and its role in global affairs and will appeal to academics and policy-makers alike.
The European economy is emerging from its deepest recession since the 1930s. This volume, which brings together economic analysis from the European Commission services, explains how swift policy response avoided a financial meltdown. Europe also needs an improved co-ordinated crisis-management framework to help it respond to any similar situations that may arise in the future. Economic Crisis in Europe is a much-anticipated volume which shows that the beginnings of such a crisis-management framework are emerging, building on existing institutions and legislation and complemented by new initiatives.
This paper investigates empirically the drivers of financial imbalances ahead of the global financial crisis. Three factors may have contributed to the build-up of financial imbalances: (i) rising global imbalances (capital flows), (ii) monetary policy that might have been too loose, (iii) inadequate supervision and regulation. Panel data regressions are performed for OECD countries from 1999 to 2007, so as to shed light on the relative importance of these factors, as well as the extent to which these factors might have interacted in fuelling the build-up. We find that the build-up of financial imbalances was driven by capital inflows and an associated compression of the spread between long and short rates. The effect of capital inflows on the build-up is amplified where the supervisory and regulatory environment was relatively weak. We find that, by contrast, differences in monetary policy cannot account for differences across countries in the build-up of financial imbalances ahead of the crisis.
