Ethiopia’s agrifood system structure and drivers of transformation
Ethiopia’s agrifood system structure and drivers of transformation

Author: Diao, Xinshen

Publisher: Intl Food Policy Res Inst

Published: 2023-07-14

Total Pages: 14

ISBN-13:

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Ethiopia stands out as one of the fastest growing African countries between 2009 and 2019, with an average annual GDP growth rate close to 10 percent (ESS 2020). The global COVID-19 pandemic coupled with an armed civil conflict that started in November 2020 and continued for two years caused a significant slowdown in economic growth during the 2020–2022 period. Ethiopia’s GDP growth is now projected to recover to 5.3 percent in 2023 and 6.1 percent in 2024 (World Bank 2023), remaining well below the growth rates achieved in the pre-pandemic era. Agriculture remains an important sector in Ethiopia, accounting for one-third of GDP and two-thirds of jobs. The agriculture sector, like the broader economy, performed well prior to the pandemic and civil conflict, averaging 5.5 percent growth from 2009 to 2019 (ESS 2020), and played an important role in weathering the global commodity market shocks during 2022–2023 (Diao and Thurlow 2023). In this brief, we look beyond primary agriculture to understand how Ethiopia’s broader agrifood system (AFS) is contributing to growth and transformation in the country.

Ethiopia's agrifood system: Past trends, present challenges, and future scenarios
Ethiopia's agrifood system: Past trends, present challenges, and future scenarios

Author: Dorosh, Paul A., ed.

Publisher: Intl Food Policy Res Inst

Published: 2020-09-14

Total Pages: 520

ISBN-13: 0896296911

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Ethiopia has experienced impressive agricultural growth and poverty reduction, stemming in part from substantial public investments in agriculture. Yet, the agriculture sector now faces increasing land and water constraints along with other challenges to growth. Ethiopia’s Agrifood System: Past Trends, Present Challenges, and Future Scenarios presents a forward-looking analysis of Ethiopia’s agrifood system in the context of a rapidly changing economy. Growth in the agriculture sector remains essential to continued poverty reduction in Ethiopia and will depend on sustained investment in the agrifood system, especially private sector investment. Many of the policies for a successful agricultural and rural development strategy for Ethiopia are relevant for other African countries, as well. Ethiopia’s Agrifood System should be a valuable resource for policymakers, development specialists, and others concerned with economic development in Africa south of the Sahara.

Ethiopia's agrifood system: Past trends, present challenges, and future scenarios: Synopsis
Ethiopia's agrifood system: Past trends, present challenges, and future scenarios: Synopsis

Author: Dorosh, Paul A., ed.

Publisher: Intl Food Policy Res Inst

Published: 2020-09-14

Total Pages: 4

ISBN-13:

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Ethiopia has experienced impressive agricultural growth and poverty reduction, stemming in part from substantial public investments in agriculture. Yet, the agriculture sector now faces increasing land and water constraints along with other challenges to growth. Ethiopia’s Agrifood System: Past Trends, Present Challenges, and Future Scenarios presents a forward-looking analysis of Ethiopia’s agrifood system in the context of a rapidly changing economy. Growth in the agriculture sector remains essential to continued poverty reduction in Ethiopia and will depend on sustained investment in the agrifood system, especially private sector investment. Many of the policies for a successful agricultural and rural development strategy for Ethiopia are relevant for other African countries, as well. Ethiopia’s Agrifood System should be a valuable resource for policymakers, development specialists, and others concerned with economic development in Africa south of the Sahara.

Structural change and poverty reduction in Ethiopia: Economy-wide analysis of the evolving role of agriculture
Structural change and poverty reduction in Ethiopia: Economy-wide analysis of the evolving role of agriculture

Author: Dorosh, Paul

Publisher: Intl Food Policy Res Inst

Published: 2018-09-06

Total Pages: 35

ISBN-13:

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This paper explores these issues for Ethiopia utilizing an economy-wide computable general equilibrium (CGE) model based on a detailed social accounting matrix (SAM). We present the results of four alternative investment scenarios -- faster investment in i) cities; ii) crop agriculture; iii) the rural non-farm sector and agro-industry; and iv) livestock. The simulations suggest that investments in cities generate faster economic growth and structural transformation. However, given the large share of the population with incomes linked to agriculture and the rural economy, investments in the rural economy are likely to continue to be more pro-poor than urban public investments through the mid-2020s. After the mid-2020s, investments in cities become more pro-poor. In short, though rapid economic growth and structural transformation have diminished the relative importance of the agricultural sector in Ethiopia’s economy, continued public investments in agriculture and the broader agri-food system remain crucial for equity and poverty alleviation in Ethiopia, as well as for reducing food import dependency.

Rwanda’s agrifood system: Structure and drivers of transformation
Rwanda’s agrifood system: Structure and drivers of transformation

Author: Diao, Xinshen

Publisher: Intl Food Policy Res Inst

Published: 2023-01-25

Total Pages: 35

ISBN-13:

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This paper assesses the structure of Rwanda’s current and evolving agrifood system and its contribu-tion to national development. The paper reiterates the point that Rwanda’s agrifood system stretches well beyond primary agriculture and creates jobs and income opportunities throughout the economy. While off-farm components of Rwanda’s agrifood system have generally grown more rapidly than pri-mary agriculture in recent years, growth varies across value chains of the agrifood system in the stud-ied period. The growth diagnostic in this paper reveals that it is domestic markets that have driven the recent growth in Rwanda’s AFS other than exports. The paper’s forward-looking analysis assesses potentially differential impacts of value-chain develop-ment efforts on broad development outcomes. The analysis measures the synergies and trade-offs of value-chain development in the context of an inclusive agricultural transformation. Such analysis is conducted using the Rwanda Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model – an adaption of IFPRI’s Rural Investment and Policy Analysis (RIAPA) model to the Rwandan context. The modeling results indicate that value chains differ considerably in their effectiveness in achieving development goals and there are significant trade-offs among different development goals from pro-moting a specific value chain. The value chains that make a larger contribution to growth or job crea-tion are not necessarily effective in reducing poverty or improving dietary quality – for example, value chains for coffee and tea – while value chains that play an important role in improving dietary quality may contribute less to job creation – such as vegetables or fruits. While there is no single value chain that can achieve all development goals effectively, it is possible to select a diversified set of value chains that complement each other in achieving different development goals. This latter strategy is a more realistic approach to growth and development.

Food and Agriculture in Ethiopia
Food and Agriculture in Ethiopia

Author: Paul Dorosh

Publisher: University of Pennsylvania Press

Published: 2013-02-11

Total Pages: 377

ISBN-13: 0812208617

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The perception of Ethiopia projected in the media is often one of chronic poverty and hunger, but this bleak assessment does not accurately reflect most of the country today. Ethiopia encompasses a wide variety of agroecologies and peoples. Its agriculture sector, economy, and food security status are equally complex. In fact, since 2001 the per capita income in certain rural areas has risen by more than 50 percent, and crop yields and availability have also increased. Higher investments in roads and mobile phone technology have led to improved infrastructure and thereby greater access to markets, commodities, services, and information. In Food and Agriculture in Ethiopia: Progress and Policy Challenges, Paul Dorosh and Shahidur Rashid, along with other experts, tell the story of Ethiopia's political, economic, and agricultural transformation. The book is designed to provide empirical evidence to shed light on the complexities of agricultural and food policy in today's Ethiopia, highlight major policies and interventions of the past decade, and provide insights into building resilience to natural disasters and food crises. It examines the key issues, constraints, and opportunities that are likely to shape a food-secure future in Ethiopia, focusing on land quality, crop production, adoption of high-quality seed and fertilizer, and household income. Students, researchers, policy analysts, and decisionmakers will find this book a useful overview of Ethiopia's political, economic, and agricultural transformation as well as a resource for major food policy issues in Ethiopia. Contributors: Dawit Alemu, Guush Berhane, Jordan Chamberlin, Sarah Coll-Black, Paul Dorosh, Berhanu Gebremedhin, Sinafikeh Asrat Gemessa, Daniel O. Gilligan, John Graham, Kibrom Tafere Hirfrfot, John Hoddinott, Adam Kennedy, Neha Kumar, Mehrab Malek, Linden McBride, Dawit Kelemework Mekonnen, Asfaw Negassa, Shahidur Rashid, Emily Schmidt, David Spielman, Alemayehu Seyoum Taffesse, Seneshaw Tamiru, James Thurlow, William Wiseman.

Agricultural Transformation in Ethiopia
Agricultural Transformation in Ethiopia

Author: Atakilte Beyene

Publisher:

Published:

Total Pages: 192

ISBN-13: 9781350218352

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An examination of Ethiopia's agriculture system, and the vitally overlooked importance of this component of development strategy for health and food security in the wider region.

Ten years of the Ethiopian Agricultural Transformation Agency
Ten years of the Ethiopian Agricultural Transformation Agency

Author: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations

Publisher: Food & Agriculture Org.

Published: 2020-12-09

Total Pages: 144

ISBN-13: 9251337217

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Through a rigorous, multi-stage analysis, the evidence generated by this corporate evaluation demonstrates the effectiveness of Ethiopian Agricultural Transformation Agency (ATA)’s business plan for achieving measurable changes in Ethiopia’s agricultural sector, both at micro and macro levels. The assessment also identifies areas for renewed and refined emphasis, as well as strategic planning for the future planning and monitoring of ATA’s work. This evaluation finds that ATA has achieved many of the outcomes it is being measured against, in terms of input use, extension services, and agricultural technology. The outcomes observed point to the effective removal of bottlenecks in the rural agricultural economy that have improved the linkages between producers, input markets and agricultural services. The improvements in those priority areas are reflected in productivity gains for certain priority crops and in market orientation positions that confirm ATA’s effectiveness in connecting producers to markets. FAO’s evaluation finds positive macroeconomic effects from ATA interventions, helping to ameliorate the reduction in gross domestic product growth, and also supporting the development of agroindustry and transportation services.

Evolving food systems in Ethiopia: Past, present and future
Evolving food systems in Ethiopia: Past, present and future

Author: Minten, Bart

Publisher: Intl Food Policy Res Inst

Published: 2018-04-27

Total Pages: 35

ISBN-13:

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Ethiopia’s food systems are rapidly evolving, being driven by major contextual changes including high population growth, rapid urbanization, infrastructure investments, and income growth. These changes are illustrated by dietary, agricultural, and supply chain transformations. These transformations in Ethiopia’s food systems are expected to continue at a rapid pace given similar even more pronounced changes going forward. We expect to see especially rapid growth in commercial food markets. This will have enormous implications on farming and on the required development of efficient private-led agricultural input supply, logistics, trading, and distribution sectors.

Diet transformation in Africa
Diet transformation in Africa

Author: Hassen, Ibrahim Worku

Publisher: Intl Food Policy Res Inst

Published: 2016-04-06

Total Pages: 25

ISBN-13:

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Africa's food systems are changing fast amid rapid economic growth, emerging urbanization, and structural transformation. In this study, we use four rounds of nationally representative data from Ethiopia to examine changes in household food consumption patterns over a period of unprecedented economic growth. We find that while there is a general decline in the share of food in the total consumption basket of households in Ethiopia, food quantities and intake of calories have increased considerably over the period 1996 to 2011. This was mostly driven by improvements in household incomes, as shown using decomposition analysis. Furthermore, the content of the food basket is changing with a gradual shift towards high-value foods, such as animal products, fruits and vegetables, and processed foods. However, irrespective of the level of income, a heavy focus on starchy staples in the Ethiopian diet remains. Overall, this diet transformation has important implications for the food security debate and for agricultural and food policy in the country.