Andy Garlick's book explores the role of quantitative techniques in modern risk management. Risk management has grown in importance in most organisations in the last 20 years, but in many remains simply a matter of processing lists of risks and actions. The author argues that this fails to make the most of the techniques available and that organisations can improve their risk decision making by using risk models. His book describes a broad range of modelling techniques, all illustrated by business-relevant examples. The role of the models in decision making is also discussed, with particular emphasis on what the risk premium - the price people charge for accepting risk - is and should be. In order to provide a self contained account the underpinning material from probability and decision theory is also included, so that the book will provide a handy reference guide for all practitioners. The discussion is consistently informal, and the book provides a critical view of the accepted wisdom in risk management. This book will enable managers and their specialist advisors to improve their approach to risk whilst removing the mystique.
Much has already been written about risk assessment. Epidemiologists write books on how risk assessment is used to explore the factors that influence the distribution of disease in populations of people. Toxicologists write books on how risk assess ment involves exposing animals to risk agents and concluding from the results what risks people might experience if similarly exposed. Engineers write books on how risk assessment is utilized to estimate the risks of constructing a new facility such as a nuclear power plant. Statisticians write books on how risk assessment may be used to analyze mortality or accident data to determine risks. There are already many books on risk assessment-the trouble is that they all seem to be about different sUbjects! This book takes another approach. It brings together all the methods for assessing risk into a common framework, thus demonstrating how the various methods relate to one another. This produces four important benefits: • First, it provides a comprehensive reference for risk assessment. This one source offers readers concise explanations of the many methods currently available for describing and quantifying diverse types of risks. • Second, it consistently evaluates and compares available risk assessment methods and identifies their specific strengths and limitations. Understand ing the limitations of risk assessment methods is important. The field is still in its infancy, and the problems with available methods are disappoint ingly numerous. At the same time, risk assessment is being used.
Every day we make decisions about our health - some big and some small. What we eat, how we live and even where we live can affect our health. But how can we be sure that the advice we are given about these important matters is right for us? This book will provide you with the right tools for assessing health advice.
In light of recent evidence on the relationship of ozone to mortality and questions about its implications for benefit analysis, the Environmental Protection Agency asked the National Research Council to establish a committee of experts to evaluate independently the contributions of recent epidemiologic studies to understanding the size of the ozone-mortality effect in the context of benefit analysis. The committee was also asked to assess methods for estimating how much a reduction in short-term exposure to ozone would reduce premature deaths, to assess methods for estimating associated increases in life expectancy, and to assess methods for estimating the monetary value of the reduced risk of premature death and increased life expectancy in the context of health-benefits analysis. Estimating Mortality Risk Reduction and Economic Benefits from Controlling Ozone Air Pollution details the committee's findings and posits several recommendations to address these issues.
A dozen papers from a symposium in Phoenix, Arizona, January 1995 provide researchers and practitioners with the current modifications of the EPA's basic methodology for assessing the health risk of releasing chemicals into the environment. They cover determining background concentrations, collectin
The world is living dangerously - either because it has little choice or because it is making the wrong choices -- Dr Gro Harlem Brundtland WHO Director-General
This book is the seventh in a series of titles from the National Research Council that addresses the effects of exposure to low dose LET (Linear Energy Transfer) ionizing radiation and human health. Updating information previously presented in the 1990 publication, Health Effects of Exposure to Low Levels of Ionizing Radiation: BEIR V, this book draws upon new data in both epidemiologic and experimental research. Ionizing radiation arises from both natural and man-made sources and at very high doses can produce damaging effects in human tissue that can be evident within days after exposure. However, it is the low-dose exposures that are the focus of this book. So-called “late” effects, such as cancer, are produced many years after the initial exposure. This book is among the first of its kind to include detailed risk estimates for cancer incidence in addition to cancer mortality. BEIR VII offers a full review of the available biological, biophysical, and epidemiological literature since the last BEIR report on the subject and develops the most up-to-date and comprehensive risk estimates for cancer and other health effects from exposure to low-level ionizing radiation.
Winner of the Project Management Institute’s David I. Cleland Project Management Literature Award 2010 It’s no wonder that project managers spend so much time focusing their attention on risk identification. Important projects tend to be time constrained, pose huge technical challenges, and suffer from a lack of adequate resources. Identifying and Managing Project Risk, now updated and consistent with the very latest Project Management Body of Knowledge (PMBOK)® Guide, takes readers through every phase of a project, showing them how to consider the possible risks involved at every point in the process. Drawing on real-world situations and hundreds of examples, the book outlines proven methods, demonstrating key ideas for project risk planning and showing how to use high-level risk assessment tools. Analyzing aspects such as available resources, project scope, and scheduling, this new edition also explores the growing area of Enterprise Risk Management. Comprehensive and completely up-to-date, this book helps readers determine risk factors thoroughly and decisively...before a project gets derailed.
This report reviews the methods used to estimate the national number of people eligible to participate in the Special Supplemental Nutrition Program for Women, Infants, and Children (WIC) under full funding of the program. It reviews alternative data sets and methods for estimating income eligibility, adjunctive eligibility (which occurs when people are eligible for WIC because they are enrolled in other federal public assistance programs) and nutritional risk, as well as for estimating participation if the program is fully funded.
In today's hypercompetitive global marketplace, accurate costestimating is crucial to bottom-line results. Nowhere is this moreevident than in the design and development of new products andservices. Among managing engineers responsible for developingrealistic cost estimates for new product designs, the number-onesource of information and guidance has been the Cost Estimator'sReference Manual. Comprehensive, authoritative, and practical, the Manual instructsreaders in the full range of cost estimating techniques andprocedures currently used in the fields of development, testing,manufacturing, production, construction, software, generalservices, government contracting, engineering services, scientificprojects, and proposal preparation. The authors clearly explain howto go about gathering the data essential to preparing a realisticestimate of costs and guide the reader step by step through eachprocedure. This new Second Edition incorporates a decade of progress in themethods, procedures, and strategies of cost estimating. All thematerial has been updated and five new chapters have been added toreflect the most recent information on such increasingly importanttopics as activity-based costing, software estimating,design-to-cost techniques, and cost implications of new concurrentengineering and systems engineering approaches to projects. Indispensable to virtually anyone whose work requires accurate costestimates, the Cost Estimator's Reference Manual will be especiallyvaluable to engineers, estimators, accountants, and contractors ofproducts, projects, processes, and services to both government andindustry. The essential ready-reference for the techniques, methods, andprocedures of cost estimating COST ESTIMATOR'S REFERENCE MANUAL Second Edition Indispensable for anyone who depends on accurate cost estimates forengineering projects, the Cost Estimator's Reference Manual guidesthe user through both the basic and more sophisticated aspects ofthe estimating process. Authoritative and comprehensive, the Manualseamlessly integrates the many functions--accounting, financial,statistical, and management--of modern cost estimating practice.Its broad coverage includes estimating procedures applied to suchareas as: * Production * Software * Development * General services * Testing * Government contracting * Manufacturing * Engineering * Proposal preparation * Scientific projects * Construction This updated and expanded Second Edition incorporates all the mostimportant recent developments in cost estimating, such asactivity-based costing, software estimating, design-to-costtechniques, computer-aided estimating tools, concurrentengineering, and life cycle costing. For engineers, estimators, accountants, planners, and others whoare involved in the cost aspects of projects, the Cost Estimator'sReference Manual is an invaluable information source that will payfor itself many times over.
