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Author: Clive W. J. Granger
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Published: 1999-09-30
Total Pages: 116
ISBN-13: 9780521778251
DOWNLOAD EBOOKLucid account of the process of constructing and evaluating an empirical model.
Author: Francis X. Diebold
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Published: 2012-12-06
Total Pages: 153
ISBN-13: 3642456413
DOWNLOAD EBOOKStructural exchange rate modeling has proven extremely difficult during the recent post-1973 float. The disappointment climaxed with the papers of Meese and Rogoff (1983a, 1983b), who showed that a "naive" random walk model distinctly dominated received theoretical models in terms of predictive performance for the major dollar spot rates. One purpose of this monograph is to seek the reasons for this failure by exploring the temporal behavior of seven major dollar exchange rates using nonstructural time-series methods. The Meese-Rogoff finding does not mean that exchange rates evolve as random walks; rather it simply means that the random walk is a better stochastic approximation than any of their other candidate models. In this monograph, we use optimal model specification techniques, including formal unit root tests which allow for trend, and find that all of the exchange rates studied do in fact evolve as random walks or random walks with drift (to a very close approximation). This result is consistent with efficient asset markets, and provides an explanation for the Meese-Rogoff results. Far more subtle forces are at work, however, which lead to interesting econometric problems and have implications for the measurement of exchange rate volatility and moment structure. It is shown that all exchange rates display substantial conditional heteroskedasticity. A particularly reasonable parameterization of this conditional heteroskedasticity, which captures the observed clustering of prediction error variances, is developed in Chapter 2.
Author: Domenico Delli Gatti
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Published: 2018-03-22
Total Pages: 261
ISBN-13: 1108414990
DOWNLOAD EBOOKThe first step-by-step introduction to the methodology of agent-based models in economics, their mathematical and statistical analysis, and real-world applications.
Author: David F. Hendry
Publisher:
Published: 1995
Total Pages: 918
ISBN-13: 9780198283164
DOWNLOAD EBOOKThe main problem in econometric modelling of time series is discovering sustainable and interpretable relationships between observed economic variables. The primary aim of this book is to develop an operational econometric approach which allows constructive modelling. Professor Hendry deals with methodological issues (model discovery, data mining, and progressive research strategies); with major tools for modelling (recursive methods, encompassing, super exogeneity, invariance tests); and with practical problems (collinearity, heteroscedasticity, and measurement errors). He also includes an extensive study of US money demand. The book is self-contained, with the technical background covered in appendices. It is thus suitable for first year graduate students, and includes solved examples and exercises to facilitate its use in teaching. About the Series Advanced Texts in Econometrics is a distinguished and rapidly expanding series in which leading econometricians assess recent developments in such areas as stochastic probability, panel and time series data analysis, modeling, and cointegration. In both hardback and affordable paperback, each volume explains the nature and applicability of a topic in greater depth than possible in introductory textbooks or single journal articles. Each definitive work is formatted to be as accessible and convenient for those who are not familiar with the detailed primary literature.
Author: Ragnar Nymoen
Publisher: World Scientific
Published: 2019-07-09
Total Pages: 586
ISBN-13: 9811207534
DOWNLOAD EBOOKFor Masters and PhD students in EconomicsIn this textbook, the duality between the equilibrium concept used in dynamic economic theory and the stationarity of economic variables is explained and used in the presentation of single equations models and system of equations such as VARs, recursive models and simultaneous equations models.The book also contains chapters on: exogeneity, in the context of estimation, policy analysis and forecasting; automatic (computer based) variable selection, and how it can aid in the specification of an empirical macroeconomic model; and finally, on a common framework for model-based economic forecasting.Supplementary materials and notes are available on the publisher's website.
Author: Kenneth J. Singleton
Publisher: Princeton University Press
Published: 2009-12-13
Total Pages: 497
ISBN-13: 1400829232
DOWNLOAD EBOOKWritten by one of the leading experts in the field, this book focuses on the interplay between model specification, data collection, and econometric testing of dynamic asset pricing models. The first several chapters provide an in-depth treatment of the econometric methods used in analyzing financial time-series models. The remainder explores the goodness-of-fit of preference-based and no-arbitrage models of equity returns and the term structure of interest rates; equity and fixed-income derivatives prices; and the prices of defaultable securities. Singleton addresses the restrictions on the joint distributions of asset returns and other economic variables implied by dynamic asset pricing models, as well as the interplay between model formulation and the choice of econometric estimation strategy. For each pricing problem, he provides a comprehensive overview of the empirical evidence on goodness-of-fit, with tables and graphs that facilitate critical assessment of the current state of the relevant literatures. As an added feature, Singleton includes throughout the book interesting tidbits of new research. These range from empirical results (not reported elsewhere, or updated from Singleton's previous papers) to new observations about model specification and new econometric methods for testing models. Clear and comprehensive, the book will appeal to researchers at financial institutions as well as advanced students of economics and finance, mathematics, and science.
Author: David F. Hendry
Publisher: Princeton University Press
Published: 2012-06-21
Total Pages: 378
ISBN-13: 1400845653
DOWNLOAD EBOOKEconometric Modeling provides a new and stimulating introduction to econometrics, focusing on modeling. The key issue confronting empirical economics is to establish sustainable relationships that are both supported by data and interpretable from economic theory. The unified likelihood-based approach of this book gives students the required statistical foundations of estimation and inference, and leads to a thorough understanding of econometric techniques. David Hendry and Bent Nielsen introduce modeling for a range of situations, including binary data sets, multiple regression, and cointegrated systems. In each setting, a statistical model is constructed to explain the observed variation in the data, with estimation and inference based on the likelihood function. Substantive issues are always addressed, showing how both statistical and economic assumptions can be tested and empirical results interpreted. Important empirical problems such as structural breaks, forecasting, and model selection are covered, and Monte Carlo simulation is explained and applied. Econometric Modeling is a self-contained introduction for advanced undergraduate or graduate students. Throughout, data illustrate and motivate the approach, and are available for computer-based teaching. Technical issues from probability theory and statistical theory are introduced only as needed. Nevertheless, the approach is rigorous, emphasizing the coherent formulation, estimation, and evaluation of econometric models relevant for empirical research.
Author: Brian Ferguson
Publisher: Routledge
Published: 2003-07-10
Total Pages: 347
ISBN-13: 1134440545
DOWNLOAD EBOOKThis new book will be welcomed by econometricians and students of econometrics everywhere. Introducing discrete time modelling techniques and bridging the gap between economics and econometric literature, this ambitious book is sure to be an invaluable resource for all those to whom the terms unit roots, cointegration and error correction forms, ch
Author: Richard S. Conway Jr.
Publisher: Springer Nature
Published: 2022-04-23
Total Pages: 276
ISBN-13: 3030766462
DOWNLOAD EBOOKThis textbook offers an introduction to empirical regional economics, including a comprehensive and systematic overview of the fundamentals, history, development, and applications of economic base models. It not only provides a sound basis for regional economics and regional economic analysis, but it also includes numerous applications of the underlying theory. The book has an empirical orientation, highlighting the value of observation and testing in order to explain regional economic behavior. Theory plays an important role in this study, but it is only a starting point. The book is divided into three parts: the first discusses the economic base theory of regional growth and the empirical evidence supporting it, while the second part covers the specification and application of four increasingly complex regional economic models: the economic base model, the input-output model, the interindustry econometric model, and the structural time-series model. Lastly, the third part presents forty-eight regional economic case studies organized under seven headings, including economic cycles, economic policy, and regional forecasting. Given its scope, the book appeals to upper-undergraduate and graduate students majoring in economics, economic geography, and business, as well as to anyone in the private or public sector interested in gaining a better understanding of practical methods of regional economic forecasting and analysis. For additional course material, please check the author's website: https://www.empiricalregionaleconomics.com/
Author: Donggyu Sul
Publisher: Routledge
Published: 2019-02-07
Total Pages: 150
ISBN-13: 0429752989
DOWNLOAD EBOOKIn the last 20 years, econometric theory on panel data has developed rapidly, particularly for analyzing common behaviors among individuals over time. Meanwhile, the statistical methods employed by applied researchers have not kept up-to-date. This book attempts to fill in this gap by teaching researchers how to use the latest panel estimation methods correctly. Almost all applied economics articles use panel data or panel regressions. However, many empirical results from typical panel data analyses are not correctly executed. This book aims to help applied researchers to run panel regressions correctly and avoid common mistakes. The book explains how to model cross-sectional dependence, how to estimate a few key common variables, and how to identify them. It also provides guidance on how to separate out the long-run relationship and common dynamic and idiosyncratic dynamic relationships from a set of panel data. Aimed at applied researchers who want to learn about panel data econometrics by running statistical software, this book provides clear guidance and is supported by a full range of online teaching and learning materials. It includes practice sections on MATLAB, STATA, and GAUSS throughout, along with short and simple econometric theories on basic panel regressions for those who are unfamiliar with econometric theory on traditional panel regressions.
